South East England/East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 30/01/14

[Jason T]

What is the lead time between a warming at the 10mb level and potential tropospheric impacts? 

 

Blimey Steve, That is quite an in-depth question to which I'm guessing this is a test lol. However if I am right,There is no actual lead time as it depends on the depth and strength of the SSW, Lead time around 10 to 21 days.

 

[Andy H]

Giving up on seeing a snowflake this winter!! Yes I know we can see snow right up to April, but getting out today in a t shirt, cutting logs has made me want spring now!

Plus some warm weather for me as from Friday, off to Morocco!!

Edited February 2, 2014 by Andy H

[Steve C]

Blimey Steve, That is quite an in-depth question to which I'm guessing this is a test lol. However if I am right,There is no actual lead time as it depends on the depth and strength of the SSW, Lead time around 10 to 21 days.

 

No, I was only wondering about averages. I know I've read a bit about 1mb, 10mb and 30mb levels and 2 week lead times etc., but haven't studied enough to be able to flesh out when a possible pattern change might occur from the timing, if your forecast post came to fruition and whether it'd be in time for any reasonable freeze this year.

 

10-21 days is fine

[Jason T]

No, I was only wondering about averages. I know I've read a bit about 1mb, 10mb and 30mb levels and 2 week lead times etc., but haven't studied enough to be able to flesh out when a possible pattern change might occur from the timing, if your forecast post came to fruition and whether it'd be in time for any reasonable freeze this year.

 

10-21 days is fine

 

Its OK Steve, I'm far from perfect on this only to look out for the laymen term versions. SSW's though can deliver quite well and last a good few weeks in affect,As for time scale I believe reading between the lines we are still in for a good shout at Winter. I will see if I can find the link for you that explains a lot easier, As I find most of the normal jargon scrambles my brain.

[tinybill]

no  let up on country  file  reg rain  

[PiggiePalace]

Evening everyone

 

Had a very lazy day today -

 

Got very excited about the 5* Severn Bore forecast this morning so was up to watch live on BBC News. It started well but owing to the amount of floodwater it had diminished to a disappointing ripple by the time it got to Minsterworth.  Didn't stop the tidal surge following it putting the Severn out of bank again and flooding the nearby properties. Nice vid on here of the best bit of the Bore today.

 

http://blogs.channel4.com/alex-thomsons-view/severn-bore-surge-floods/7209

 

 

Been sorting out some old recovered files on my hard drive from computers gone by and came across some before/after flood pictures of my stream from 2007 which I will put up in the next few days to demonstrate just how crazy and fast things can change when mother nature is at work......and why I am such a nervous wreck when more than 25mm of rain is forecast

 

 

In a similar vein, I have also been glued to twitter and facebook the last 24hours following the unfolding drama of The Watering Hole pub on Perranporth Beach that really looked like it was going to be lost to the high tides/storm surge last night......thankfully it survived last night and this morning....hopefully it;s still doing OK as we speak.

 

https://twitter.com/Felixleiteruk/status/430044747013828609/photo/1

 

Have to say I am now adding the Severn Bore and Perranporth to my bucket list....but I won;t be taking a surfboard!

 

Not looking forward to the weather this coming week and all downgrades would be much appreciated....as of course will be all the helpful analyses and timings from our resident weather bods on here........please continue to KISS (keep it simple stupid) for the likes of me who are still learning.  

xxxx

 

Edit: Iceni - guinea pigs originally came from Peru where a much larger version called a "cuy" is bred to eat. Some rather distressing Youtube videos exist involving their killing and preparation so I try not to mention it when my piggies are listening. xxx

Edited February 2, 2014 by PiggiePalace

[Jason T]

Amazing ice storm, check out the trees and sign posts ... http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BUjZf5ogmAY&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DBUjZf5ogmAY â€¦

[Jason T]

Next Saturdays low.. Just need snow and we have a blizzard on tap.

 

Edited February 2, 2014 by Jason T

[Jax]

Evening peeps

 

 

afternoon out over with the folks in the next village, all good, even got fed and watered (unexpected bonus), back in the hovel and done the ironing, cleaned out the birds, bins out and packup for tomorrow is in progress (whilst watching country file of course), now have a number of candels and incence burners on the go (along with a lava lamp) to make my evening quiet and tranquil...

 

...bugger cooker timer has put a stop to that, back soon!

 

 

ooooh, dry and clear here.

[john pike]

hi all

 

will update later

 

but heres tomorrow

 

 

a breezy but not strong southerly wind

 

rain

 

 

 

 

none

 

temps

 

 

around 6-7 degrees

 

colder on south facing coasts as cloud and mist likely

 

the rest sunny intervals and cloud

 

back later

 

john

[Jax]

hi all

 

will update later

 

but heres tomorrow

rain

 

none

 

 

back later

 

john

 

nuff...........................said................................

my grebes drowned in the floods.

Edited February 2, 2014 by Jax

[MAF]

.....

but expect wild swings with the models over the next few days

heres a wild swing.... Ooops. just had a Coast moment... night all

 

[PiggiePalace]

my grebes drowned in the floods.

 

 

Not liking this bit  Jax?xxx

[Jax]

Not liking this bit  Jax?xxx

goes back to the old BBC weather forum days.

 

worry not

Edited February 2, 2014 by Jax

[Summer of 76]

Was that snow watch

[Jax]

Was that snow watch

Christ on a bike I was there too for a while.

[PiggiePalace]

Guess nonone watched my vids

 

I did too! Thanx for posting Victor.

I didn't comment at the time  because they're a bit too scarey/near the knuckle for me given my own circumstances.....

 

Actually, to be completely honest, having watched them,  I felt an urgent need to become an ostritch....... so went  back to bed

xxxx

[Jax]

Not liking this bit  Jax?xxx

Maybe I should add you have to have known Bill Farkin, bit of a leg end :lol:

[PiggiePalace]

goes back to the old BBC weather forum days.

 

worry not

 

Phew - I love grebes...and mergansers etc - still remember my rheumatism-free when I were younger those freezing cold birdwatching days at Rainham, Portland and Scilly Isles...

xxx

[Summer of 76]

Maybe I should add you have to have known Bill Farkin, bit of a leg end

He was a legend in his own posting time

[john pike]

hi again heres tomorrow night

 

 

a weak south westerly flow

 

rainfall

 

as the cold front comes through

 

we will see a brief spell of rain with the odd heavy bursts

 

however should not last too long

 

as we go through the night the weather should become cloudy with misty murky conditions

 

not cold once the rain arrives

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tuesday

 

 

winds slowly increasing in the afternoon to a gusty south westerly

 

rainfall

 

 

after a misty murky start

 

it looks to be mainly dry

 

we may see some light drizzle in the afternoon but nothing of note

 

temps

 

 

could feel chilly today

 

temps around 5-7 degrees

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tuesday night

 

 

and gusty south west wind

 

could be around 50mph and maybe a tad higher on south facing coasts

 

rainfall

 

 

rain incoming and some heavy but not torrential

 

however still needs watching

 

temps

 

still chilly but no frost

 

but will start cold before the rain gets here

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

wednesday

 

 

 

heres all the charts for you to nose at

 

i am not convinced on low track so going to wait for tomorrow now

 

john

[Jax]

Phew - I love grebes...and mergansers etc - still remember my rheumatism-free when I were younger those freezing cold birdwatching days at Rainham, Portland and Scilly Isles...

xxx

 

 

 

great post again by JP

He was a legend in his own posting time

Aye....that.....he......was....good.......sirs.............

Edited February 2, 2014 by Jax

[JennyJane1]

 

nuff...........................said................................

my grebes drowned in the floods.

oh no.oh ok, read further on, relieved.

Christ on a bike I was there too for a while.

Will it rain in Carlisle?

Edited February 2, 2014 by JennyJane1

[Jax]

I did too! Thanx for posting Victor.

I didn't comment at the time  because they're a bit too scarey/near the knuckle for me given my own circumstances.....

 

Actually, to be completely honest, having watched them,  I felt an urgent need to become an ostritch....... so went  back to bed

xxxx

yout more than welcome to have a joint cracking competition here

[SHM040519]

Lottie I did go past the river, however it was dark, was eery could just hear water screaming past, never ever heard that before there. Very close to going by the old witch chair, very very close!