South East England/East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 30/01/14

[john pike]

now heres the serious bit

 

 

 

 

tuesday late night

 

winds increasing on a strong south westerly

 

during wednesday morning

 

winds veering westerly

 

and could potentially see storm force for us here

 

the rain will be heavy for a little while but not sustained

 

expect thunder hail etc

 

i would see winds 80 mph at present

 

its all subject to change at present

 

serious watch needed on this now

[Rob Deacon]

I bet it was equal level either side of that door before long

[anything-but]

Take it this one`s due to pass through during the daylight hours JP?

[Tamara]

Evening all.

 

Now own up, which of us won't react like this if and when the time comes ?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbbOU3QubDw

 

I was concerned to hear about todays further rockfall in Hastings as this one occurred in the town, trapping a man inside a damaged shop. Due to it's location I would assume this fall was primarily caused by water permeating from above, whereas the major fall a few week ago was a combination of that and wave action at the base of the cliff.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-25997099

 

 

 

Rather worrying given the number of buildings that are sited at the base of the cliffs there.

Yes, I was trying to drive to Bexhill this afternoon and found the seafront road closed in Hastings for the reason you give, so made a diversion...just like everyone else tried to do. The town was pretty gridlocked. I found my way back onto the Bexhill Road only to be met by the road closed again at the Battle, Crowhurst junction due to the river bursting it banks and flooding. So, a further diversion around the A259 finally got me to Bexhill around 90 mins after I left home !!  Its less than 10 miles....

 

However, my main concern was seeing a few families bailing out water from their homes where the river had flooded their back gardens and seeped indoors - and that was on the stretch of road that was still open

Edited February 1, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[stainesbloke]

Thanks JP as ever for your updates. This coming week looks like it could be one to remember for all the wrong reasons! Wednesday looks nasty and Friday could be bad too...that's just for wind.

[john pike]

 

thurs

 

long way out but looks dry

 

cold as under 528 dam air again

 

weak westerly wind but looks cold

 

and dry

 

block slightly further east

 

atlantic looks a tad quieter

 

but ominous low to our west showing now

[Jason T]

Browsing Reddit just now and saw this pic from Limerick!! 

 

 

You can actually see water pouring out of the door lock from the pressure of the flood water. 

Edited February 1, 2014 by Jason T

[john pike]

hi ab

 

looks likely around lunchtime

 

but at that timeframe expect adjustments over the next few days

 

downgrades please

[Summer of 76]

now heres the serious bit

 

 

 

 

tuesday late night

 

winds increasing on a strong south westerly

 

during wednesday morning

 

winds veering westerly

 

and could potentially see storm force for us here

 

the rain will be heavy for a little while but not sustained

 

expect thunder hail etc

 

i would see winds 80 mph at present

 

its all subject to change at present

 

serious watch needed on this now

John,

 

Don't like the look of that one and hopefully it adjusts south otherwise I can see a lot of disruption with that low especially as it's during the working day.

[Jax]

wet and windy next week seems to be the theme

[john pike]

hi chris

 

not looking good at present

 

i hate wind so please not that

 

could be a potential damaging one if correct

[anything-but]

hi ab

 

looks likely around lunchtime

 

but at that timeframe expect adjustments over the next few days

 

downgrades please

 

Thanks JP,could put a spanner in for work,like you say,downgrades please for anyone in the path of that.

[Jax]

windy out here, just went out to the bins and very gusty out there.

[john pike]

 

ukmo for friday

 

at present this looks dry and not windy

 

note the ridge of high pressure to our west

 

now this may help push the lows further north away from us

 

lets hope so

[Bluebreezer54]

However, my main concern was seeing a few families bailing out water from their homes where the river had flooded their back gardens and seeped indoors - and that was on the stretch of road that was still open

 

Hi Tamara. Still in that general area, a couple I know live in Sea Road where it meets the A259 just outside Winchelsea. The River Brede flows about 30 feet from their back door and today they posted several photo's of the river level rising there as well. They should be ok, but who knows with the latest forecasts ?

 

[Jason T]

Right snooz time, Goodnight all, Hopefully we all wake up and its been an horrible Mexican nightmare about the longest Atlantic Storm we have endured, All is Dry,Sunny,Crisp and white.

 

Take Care.

[john pike]

nite jason

[john pike]

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

[Eskimo]

 

ukmo for friday

 

at present this looks dry and not windy

 

note the ridge of high pressure to our west

 

now this may help push the lows further north away from us

 

lets hope so

Looks more likely to be a transient ridge of high pressure with the low following on behind it, however it certainly looks better than the GFS.

[john pike]

hi perfect i agree

 

but i think fi is probably 96 for now

 

that low is going to cause all kinds of model mess again

 

the only good thing that low at 144 might do is pull the high north

 

a long shot but its possible

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Not looking forward to that storm predicted Wednesday at all, I go to Paris tomorrow morning and come back on the 5th, via ferry. 

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=312&y=155&run=18&runpara=0&col=1&type=1&ext=1

 

gefs pressure ensembles

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPwOHtlNjjI

 

lol

[Bluebreezer54]

The live webcam is playing up a bit, but high tide at Bognor Regis is still 30 odd minutes away and it looks pretty rough there.

 

http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live

[Iceni]

You have to question some people's intelligence, as David Attenborough said a few months ago...we are now devolving! 

 

 

Back in 1991 we were staying with my sister and there was 3'6" deep flood water by this little bridge just a few yards away. We stood outside her cottage warning drivers not to go into it, but they just drove on. One got stuck and had the nerve to want to use our phone to get towed out after we'd warned him.

Edited February 2, 2014 by Iceni