Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[Tim Bland]

How "mighty" is the NAVGEM? Anyone know how well it's been performing recently?

[SE Blizzards]

How "mighty" is the NAVGEM? Anyone know how well it's been performing recently?

 

Hmm, at a guess... It's probably about 25th place in the verification stats 

[Cloud 10]

How "mighty" is the NAVGEM? Anyone know how well it's been performing recently?

 

Not sure about the NAVGEM,but the GEM has had a purple patch recently,and is 

now in 2nd place behind the bomb-proof ECM.

 

[Tim Bland]

Always amazes me how we analyze the GFS to death when it rarely one of the top performing models. Only reason is the amount of free data and charts available. There is almost as much from the GEM though, maybe we should follow that more?

[SE Blizzards]

I totally agree Tim. GFS always seems to be stuck in around 4th place now a days. Someone should of pulled the plug on it ages ago. Although if that happened we'd have a lot less to talk about on here that's for sure.

[Mucka]

Always amazes me how we analyze the GFS to death when it rarely one of the top performing models. Only reason is the amount of free data and charts available. There is almost as much from the GEM though, maybe we should follow that more?

 

Nah, it is dreadful in the grand scheme of things 

 

But then again people should give weight to which ever model they think is likelier correct.

There is certainly some disagreement come the mid range as to how strongly the Azores high will ridge in (how far North and East it gets)

GFS is very keen to bring it any way it can and even in the ensembles if it misses the first time it builds back in very strongly a little later so clearly GFS feels there is a signal for a strong pressure rise from the SW start off March.

UKMO doesn't go out that far but it wants to bring in a cold Northwesterly to start March with AH displaced further SE and after that it is hard to know whether the AH would ridge back in.

ECM so far out to 120 seems to be somewhere in between re the placement of the AH.

Maybe we will get those Northerly outbreaks I thought would be reserved for the second week of March sooner than I anticipated but the situation looks quite fluid at the moment with a fair bit of scatter so I wouldn't want to call it just yet and GFS is good at picking up general signals quite far out (such as a pressure rise from the SW) even if it makes a hash of the details from time to time.

TWT, 

Edited February 24, 2014 by Mucka

[Summer Sun]

ECM at t168 shows some colder air across the UK

 

 

A more unsettled run from ECM so far especially the further north you go

 

Edited February 24, 2014 by Summer Sun

[SE Blizzards]

Ermmmm... The ridge has made a right pig's ear of it on the ECM 12Z.

 

 

Is it on the ropes before it's even got here?

 

 

Chilly W'ly winds at 216h...

 

 

Edited February 24, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[Summer Sun]

Remains unsettled at t216 with colder air coming back

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Oh well the ECM has gone from dry to zonal in week 2

 

I'm guessing we should pull the plug on this model 

Chilly airmass, though I personally have my doubts about the depth of cold being shown.

Edited February 24, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Tim Bland]

I think we should pull the plug on all of them and I back to seaweed! No model consistency at the moment !

[Tony27]

at the moment!!!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looks to me like a Bartlett may set up for March, although interspersed with fronts that will bring rain at times. I hope now we see March winds that will introduce some beefy April showers that will bring forth some May flowers !

[SE Blizzards]

CFS for March. Nice.

 

If only we could trust it.

 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks to me like a Bartlett may set up for March, although interspersed with fronts that will bring rain at times. I hope now we see March winds that will introduce some beefy April showers that will bring forth some May flowers !

Ummgghh, not really sure youre on the money there! Theres a lot of energy coming out of North America at the moment, so the Jet Stream will ensue the weather will be making a "b" line for the Uk, squasing any pressure rise to our south,

[damianslaw]

Models are backing off from the idea of either - a more amplified flow taking shape over the atlantic watering down markedly the chance of a northerly airstream developing at the start of the month and also from the azores high making sufficient inroads NE into southern parts.

 

Instead a continuation of the upper longwave trough dominating to the NW appears the order of the day for the foreseeable future, with a westerly airstream and the azores high forced to retreat away to the west. I've noticed how this kind of set up often eventually leads to a marked displaced azores high and thus a northerly only for high pressure to topple in thereafter and the gates are then open to the azores high nosing NE. In a normal winter/early spring at least.

 

So March could be a month of two halves, the first half unsettled and increasingly chilly as we loose a westerly airstream and develop a northerly/northwesterly second week, however, a much drier second half with high pressure close to the country and mild with weak frontal attacks from the NW.

 

There remains some exceptionally cold air over NE Canada, gosh minima of -34 degrees projected for Winnepeg, serious cold, and as long as we keep such low temperatures in this region any amplification developing over the atlantic will be very hard to come by..as we maintain a very cold PV core but in time those blues will quickly erode.

 

The key to a pattern change as it has been all winter is for a more amplified flow over eastern USA seaboard - it will happen in time...

 

I'd be interested to see how cold NE Canada and mid-west USA has been this winter - must be one of the coldest in a long while.

 

 

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is my Monday review of the midday outputs issued by the NWP for today Monday February 24th 2014 as featured on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm. I am now including links to the data from which each section of my report is compiled.

 

All models indicate an unsettled spell to come for the remainder of the week. Tonight sees Low pressure to the West of the UK spilling a trough steadily East over the UK with rain and strong winds for all overnight followed by a sunshine and heavy shower mix tomorrow in blustery, relatively mild winds. On Wednesday a weak ridge delivers a dry day for many as it crosses East before more Low pressure becomes complex to the North and then over the UK over Thursday and the lead up to the weekend with more rain and showers for most. Over the weekend the weather remains generally unsettled but with some dry weather about but with some showers as well in a NW wind and somewhat colder conditions.

 

GFS then shows a typical changeable regime developing under Westerly winds with some rain at times chiefly but not exclusively in the North. The South will see rather drier weather for longer with High pressure never far away from the South and temperatures generally will return closer to average though still rather chilly in the North between weather systems under any NW winds.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0

 

The GFS Ensembles show very changeable conditions tonight with Low pressure trending to come in from the West at times through Week 2 maintaining a changeable theme with rain at times and snow over the hills, chiefly in the North. The South is shown by many members to have some reasonable drier interludes in accordance with High pressure close to the South or SW at times though even here rain and wind occurs at times.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

 

UKMO closes today with next Sunday seeing a bank of Low pressure to the North and NW with a chilly Westerly flow carrying further rain at times in blustery winds with some snow at times on Northern hills.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=6&carte=1021

 

GEM also shows a Low pressure trough across the UK in a NW/SE axis. In essence the weather looks like staying changeable and showery well into next week with the air cold enough at times for some snow on northern hills.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0

 

The GEM Ensembles also maintain fairly changeable conditions with Low pressure areas crossing to the North of Britain next week keeping Westerly breezes going and rain at times, heaviest in the North in average temperatures.Late in the run there is support for High pressure to move up strongly towards SW Britain with settled and bright conditions in NW or North winds.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

 

NAVGEM shows a deep Low pressure close to Southern Britain to start next week with rain and showers circulating around it affecting most areas. With a Northerly contingent to the wind some snow is likely on Northern hills at least as it remains a little on the chilly side.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0

 

ECM's operational tonight shows a breezy Westerly flow likely next week as Low pressure to the North of the UK brings rain at times for many, heaviest in the North and West while Southern and Eastern areas see rather longer drier periods in between more occasional rain and rather milder conditions later. 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean charts show Low pressure to the NW and High to the South. The operational's deep Low just NW of Scotland is not well supported with the underlying pressure values shown indicating somewhat better conditions likely than what is shown on the operational but High pressure likely near Spain and Portugal some unsettled weather is possible over the UK at that range, especially towards the North.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The Jet Stream Ensemble group have reduced the amount of elevation in the axis of the flow through week 2 with the flow now shown to hold a position near to the UK and remain quite strong meaning Low pressure to the NW is allowed to dig further South through the British Isles at times with High pressure held further South over Europe or the Atlantic.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0

 

In Summary this evening there seems a reduction in confidence on the scheduled improvements next week. Tonight we have UKMO, GEM and NAVGEM looking far from moving towards the High pressure scenario shown yesterday. ECM and GFS is also watered down somewhat on it's fine weather projections of earlier and finds a half way house tonight with changeable conditions across the UK continuing though with not much rain in the South. It still seems the Atlantic is still showing solid strengths which continue to detain any intervention of any would be fine weather solutions and as I indicated yesterday I think we will see many more up and down model runs one way and another in the days to come before a clearer picture of where we are next week is known.

[Cloud 10]

GFS and ECM both have the MJO  moving into phase 8 as we head into mid-march,although the composite anomaly chart looks out of sync with the ens. means.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

phase 8..

[bluearmy]

A couple more days required to get a proper handle on what happens next week. Currently perhaps an initial attempt at the ah ridging in and then being flattened before another attempt which could be more successful.

No models are right. But those of us expecting op runs to be right post day 6/7 are even more questionable than those ops!

[joggs]

Well,this season what i have learned from the models is they pick a pattern we are in thats correct and more often than not the promise good things further down the line,but have been over-ridden by other factors,a blooming hard math is this.

[Frosty.]

Spring has sprung early this year, today in london the temperatures soared to a majestic 15 c 59 f and there is more mild weather to come. The models still have a generally unsettled look about them but at least the overall conditions have eased markedly. Yes we can expect further rain and strong winds but the south will have longer fine gaps with even a risk of ground frosts so gardeners beware.

[IDO]

Still not confident of how long the AH will ridge into the UK, if it does. As I have been saying for a while, I believe the current pattern is entrenched and that any drier interlude through pressure rises will be temporary.

 

The GFS op this morning ties in with yesterdays ECM 0z op; a period of 2-4 days of high pressure early next week before the Atlantic moves back in:

 

Monday:   Thursday:  Rest of run zonal, D15: 

 

GEM says no to next week with a continuation of the westerly flow:   But tries again at D8.

 

This has support within the GEFS and at T168 they remain uncertain: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=168 The op has support, as does a longer spell of higher pressure, as does a more zonal flow, and a mix of them.

 

JMA for week 2:  More in keeping with the UK in an Atlantic flow.

 

This morning's ECM continues with the downgrade of any pressure build, T216:  T240: 

 

Hoping the recent GFS op's are right but little confidence.

 

As for further on, last Friday's EC32 backtracked on the pressure build to the west and kept the UK in an unsettled regime well into March:

 

Mean 17th  

 

But week 3-4 JMA goes with the previous EC32 ideas, pressure building from the west: 

 

The GEFS in FI see no sign of a wintry start to March, London: 

 

Overall even with the Atlantic likely to continue the rainfall charts show much reduced amounts so just an average unsettled March setup looks the call.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z op run is generally unsettled and on the mild side but with occasional incursions of cooler air from the west. High pressure develops across mainland europe next week which causes the jet to buckle and sends another surge of very mild air from the azores across the uk, so a repeat of yesterday's 13-15 celsius range is probable for most of next week towards the south & east with drier and sunnier spells between occasional rain bands, further north west it looks like staying unsettled and windy at times.

Edited February 25, 2014 by Frosty.

[Purga]

Looks like the fabled northerly is predictably turning into just another wet splurge. ECM shows

 

 

 

 

Followed by a touch of frost for some

 

 

GFS there or there abouts as well.

 

Scotland however, could continue to do well with more decent snowfall over the mountains - lucky blighters, no wonder Alex Salmond wants to keep it all for himself!

 

For the rest of us long suffering snowless wonders it looks generally mild and unsettled though not too extremely sodden for a pleasant chancge.

 

 

Be grateful for small mercies as this hopeless debacle of an autumn draws to its ugly conclusion.

 

Fingers crossed for a nice warm Spring and Summer.

Edited February 25, 2014 by Purga

[snow freak]

Looks to me like a Bartlett may set up for March, although interspersed with fronts that will bring rain at times. I hope now we see March winds that will introduce some beefy April showers that will bring forth some May flowers !

oh god can this winter possibly get any worse....now a bartlett.  for heaven's sake. i give up.