South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 01/03/14

[Bluebreezer54]

Thanks Chilly. I've actually been pretty much housebound for a year now, think I've been out 3 times since then, twice to the doctors and once to the hospital. Stir Crazy or what.

[Keraunic]

Happy Birthday, Bjay. Hope you have a good day.

Blue54. Hope you feel better very soon. In time for a very good summer and lots of thunder.

MK...hope your week end is perfect.

Edited March 4, 2014 by Keraunophile

[MAF]

........ a sunny Sunday will be perfect but just the chance to enjoy some fresh air without getting muddy and soggy will be marvellous :-)

but no one makes you roll around in the mud :o :lol:

enjoy!

[chilly milly]

Thanks Chilly. I've actually been pretty much housebound for a year now, think I've been out 3 times since then, twice to the doctors and once to the hospital. Stir Crazy or what.

 

Oh my, I bet you are.  You need entertaining. 

 

Next NW get together round BB's house then.  Bring a bottle.

[snow raven]

Morning everybody. Happy Birthday Bjay.

 

 

I flippin' well hope not. It is such a pleasant day here that I am taking what is for me is a very big step. I will be trying to go out for the first time in weeks. It had better not rain on my parade !!

 

Have a good day.

Hope it all goes well today BB

 

Sadly it's clouded over here in Central London - and is actually quite dark where I work (London Southbank).  Fingers crossed it doesn't start raining

[Heisenberg]

Hope it all goes well today BB

 

Sadly it's clouded over here in Central London - and is actually quite dark where I work (London Southbank).  Fingers crossed it doesn't start raining

Hi SR, Its really dark innit.....

 

Nothing on Radar so should be ok but it does look ominus.....

[Steve C]

Afternoon all. I hope everyone's well.

 

Lovely sunny day here. Off to look at the charts / read some posts, as I've no idea what's expected here after about Thursday, although I sense a nice weekend might lie ahead.

[snow raven]

Hi SR, Its really dark innit.....

 

Nothing on Radar so should be ok but it does look ominus.....

It really did come over dark - thankfully it didn't rain and it seems to be brightning up a bit, although sadly not as nice as it was this morning

 

It has been lovely leaving work during day light though - I even managed to get back to Barnehurst last night at 5.30pm and it was still light

Edited March 4, 2014 by snow raven

[Flaked Queen]

Bj

Happy birthday have a fab one

BB I was housebound for ten years only the last 2 years I have been getting out so I know how hard it is rescue remedy pastels get me thru going out wishing you all the best

[Jan_Bromley]

Good afternoon all,

 

Wishing you a wonderful birthday BJK

 

Have a lovely stroll BB...enjoy

 

Took my dogs over local park this morning and the sun was soo warm and lovely. Definitely spring in the air. Really deep puddles still and some were full of frog spawn. I hope the little froglets make it before the puddles dry up!

 

Hints of warmer and drier days thankfully

[Bluebreezer54]

Good afternoon all and  thanks for the kind comments, they really are appreciated.

 

It takes me forever to do the simplest things and by the time I got washed and dressed the blue skies had turned grey and mr sunshine was wrapped in a blanket of cloud. I watched the tv forecast for tomorrow and it looks quite promising so my venture out into the big wide world ( well Northwood Hills and Eastcote actually ) is temporarily postponed until then, all being well.

 

I did see somewhere a suggestion that temperatures may reach the dizzy heights of 17-18c early next week and wouldn't that be nice ?  I do like Spring for the renewed hope it brings as nature awakens from it's winter slumber and the flora and fauna burst into life. Onwards and upwards as we creep closer and closer to Summer.

 

Have a good day you lovely people.

Edited March 4, 2014 by Bluebreezer54

[Jax]

Afternoon all

 

been a nice (looking) day today, shame it was back to the office for me *sigh*,  and was greeted by a sight I have not seen since late last year, the Sun already rising on my drive to work, did not need to turn the car lights on either.  Was the hardest frost of this winter though that I have seen, had to de-ice the car door just to get in it (late shower last night I suspect which then froze into the seal).

 

Now what is really weird is I slept fine last night, woke up fine, went to work fine but as the morning wore on I felt achey and not so well, and some pain like I have caught something or walked into it (maybe just a pulled stomach muscle?), do not remember doing anything to cause it though, very odd.

 

Hope you all have had/are having a nice day, more so if it is you birthday today

[legrandefromage]

<bites fist and clenches at Sunday temperatures>

 

Please please please please please please!

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=6

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204

 

looks like high pressure sets in

 

nice and dry but coolish days and cold nights after the weekend as we hit an easterly flow

 

 

then later in the run

 

winter starts

 

good job its fi

 

but when gfs come away from zonal in fi you have to take note

 

happy birthday bj

 

anyway a shade busy for now and hope everyone is ok

 

be back a little later with the fax updates

[Flaked Queen]

Jp you said zonal :/ u know that word confuses me lol

[Jax]

Must admit I am really pinning my hopes on Spring now JP, more so after this weekend, it is March and the Equinox is not that far off now.  Looking for positive good signs of sun and warmth

[john pike]

hi snowy

 

zonal = atlantic train of low pressure systems

[Jax]

The MAD moaning and ramping thread appears to be moaning about the MAD thread (you could not make it up)

[john pike]

just a quicky

 

now i can up the weekend temps

 

 

ukmo charts now showing better uppers

 

be back around 6ish to fax update

[Tamara]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=6

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204

 

looks like high pressure sets in

 

nice and dry but coolish days and cold nights after the weekend as we hit an easterly flow

 

 

then later in the run

 

winter starts

 

good job its fi

 

but when gfs come away from zonal in fi you have to take note

 

happy birthday bj

 

anyway a shade busy for now and hope everyone is ok

 

be back a little later with the fax updates

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

Hi john - and hi everyone else Sorry - sack the editor, don't know what happened there...

 

Happy birthday to Ian (BJ) + celebratory afternoon snooze! , and get well wishes before the weekend in the Cotswolds for Ali  @ also to BB   - hope you feel better soon

 

Those high pressure hints talked about last time I was around these parts at the weekend have really come to the forefront and our first anticyclone of 2014 to grace the SE region is now well under the model radar.  At this time of year, positioning of the High can bring a subtle variety of surface conditions depending on source of the airstream (and effects from local topography etc). There is quite good general agreement, as those charts john has posted show, for the High to perhaps provide a surface flow in our region off the nearby continent which, should it verify, this early in Spring won't be modified upwards by diurnal heating too much. Warmer later this week as we know before this time though.

 

For the especially higher temperatures at this time of year, we would require air sourced from southern europe to assist growing solar heating potential, or, an existing airmass over the continent to be containing anomalously high upper temperatures.

 

In a month or so time, the upcoming high pressure synoptics would be sufficient to provide some quite warm days on a "home grown basis" without relying on an especially warm air import source.

 

An example of this is below (which mirrors on a greater scale the changes in weather conditions that john has posted with his two charts above) illustrated this type of UK warmth well. Increased amplification in pressure patterns often presents itself more frequently as we go into and through Spring and provides the sort of spectacular switch around, such as just after my 87th birthday at the start of April 2008 f.e, which fooled us with temperatures in excess of 18C and I remember doing some garden work in a t-shirt under warm sunshine :

 

 

That led to this chart below just a couple of days later as snow spread south courtesy of a trough coming down from the Midlands around dawn on the 6th to give temperatures down to freezing mid afternoon and 3 to 5cms of snow here in Hastings by early evening and which in turn led afterwards to sparkly skies overnight and a hard frost over the covering of snow .

 

....and it also was celebrated with my very first tupperware party snow collection So I admit this was where my snow preservation idea first started (that was repeated last March) But hey, afterall, any snow that falls this late after the winter season is not going to lie for very long and one has to do their bit don't they ? and save a few flakes 

 

Anyway, back to being half sensible:  The trend is continuing for the vortex to continue to migrate somewhat eastwards with time and hints remain of a split thereafter, which sends a portion of polar vortex into Siberia and hence some suggested retrogression of the upcoming High pressure  - which is how the chart for the second half of March that john posted above evolves with its hints of colder weather.

 

A very long way out and always subject to change obviously, but I think because this is a persistent and recurring trend it needs to be watched, and it is underpinned by the seasonal traditional pattern change comments made earlier and which Spring 2008, as the example given shows, happens fairly often at this time of year.

 

As an edit to this post: The stretching and attempted splitting in the polar vortex as mentioned above is evident on tonights ECM. The Siberian portion suggested to be much stronger than since the start of winter even though there is still some vorticity over western Greenland which keeps the pattern flatter - so the missing ingredient on that chart for colder weather (for anyone looking out for it) is sufficient amplification of the pattern in the atlantic, at least at that stage.

 

Edited March 4, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[lassie23]

FROM THE MET OFFICE UK Outlook for Sunday 9 Mar 2014 to Tuesday 18 Mar 2014:

The general trend for next week is for the most unsettled weather towards the northwest of the UK, and the best of the drier and brighter conditions towards the southeast. On Sunday, milder, wetter and windier weather in the northwest will gradually ease and weaken as it spreads southwards, followed by colder and clearer conditions for a time, before turning more unsettled again in the northwest on Monday. The rest of next week will see continued periods of wetter and windier weather in northwest Scotland, though elsewhere a good deal of dry weather with some sunshine by day and the risk of frost and fog in some central and southern areas by night. Daytime temperatures probably above normal. Thereafter, possibly turning more changeable right across the UK.

Updated: 1157 on Tue 4 Mar 2014

[john pike]

tonight

 

dry cold with localised frost

 

mist patches and possible fog patches rural and coastal regions

 

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tomorrow

 

a weak westerly flow

 

rainfall

 

dry all day

 

watch for possible cloudcover and mist the south coastal regions

 

should be sunny for a bulk of the day elsewhere

 

temps

 

around 10 degrees

 

colder where you keep the cloudcover

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow night

 

a weak south westerly flow

 

rainfall

 

none

 

temps

 

around 4-6 degrees

 

fog may become an issue overnight especially north of the region

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

thursday

 

 

still under a south west flow

 

a shade breezier but nothing to note

 

rainfall

 

gets close but looks to stay dry most of the day

 

temps

 

should see around 12-14 degrees

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

thursday night

 

a slightly more noticeable south west flow

 

breezy but not strong

 

rainfall

 

looks like some light drizzly rain overnight

 

temps not cold around 8 degrees

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

friday

 

a weak west to north west flow

 

rainfall

 

rain is likely in the afternoon due to the cold front showing

 

i think it will be more light and patchy rather than heavy like the ukmo show

 

temps

 

around 12-13 degrees

 

may need to amend friday tomorrow

 

looks ok for now

 

 

 

thanks tam

[lassie23]

Watts up with that? The website for all the latest information on the sun (not the newspaper).

[Summer of 76]

Watts up with that? The website for all the latest information on the sun (not the newspaper).

Sorry i am trying to work out what this post refers to

[Bluebreezer54]

Sorry i am trying to work out what this post refers to

You and me both !!