Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

[Milhouse]

Its been reasonable i agree, and a long way from 2007 which was the year without a summer here. I still want somewhere to see 30c and the chances are still there looking at this mornings models, but i dont like the way things seem to be heading. We low pressure to stay back in the Atlantic allowing the Azores high to have a chance to build in.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I don't want heat! express saying hot weather for 2 weeks, cannot see any evidence of that on models, just to get people to buy the papers

[TonyH]

well thats it then.... game over.yeah im writing off summer , this mornings runs all agree on a downgrade of anything summery and things are going to get worse not better. heatwaves are always in a weeks time, always get downgraded, and now the chances of a hot evolution have shifted away.we here have yet to get a 25c+ , the outlook is wet, trough domination, its the heart of summer.  can it recover? yes but statistically its highly unlikely.

[Flaked Queen]

Guess my long weekend to minehead is going to be a wash out then :/

I think June / July have been lovely so far don't think summers over by a long shot

[weatherguru14]

How can you write off anything? the models are useless. The gfs for starters.. shows  heat then 5 hours later its gone again. no one knows what will happen in the next 5 days.

But its been  a pretty average to poor summer so far in this part of the world.. You can throw all the stats at me all you want..June may have been warmer than average.

It was  very dull..

I don't  wanna mention July far.. one decent day in 8.. Its ranining again now though.

[mushymanrob]

ha... well that stired things up abit!

 

like i posted a few weeks ago... all the great hot summers had started by now OR had had a prelimenary hot spell earlier in the season.... therefore, statistically the chances of us now getting a long hot summer, are negligable, going off past stats.

of course it all depends on what you want from a summer.... another 76?.... tbh no... i think most of us dont really relish weeks of unbroken heat (ok i know 76 wasnt unbroken heat, just go with the analogy).

and average summer?... yes please, im happy with that, although i would like a few maybe short lived heatwaves. heat in summer is like cold/snow in winter... it defines the season.

cant write off anything yet?

 

again it depends on what you mean by writing off..... im writing off any hope of another 06, 13, 95, you know, a decent summer on the hot dry sunny side of things. now please, dont tell me i cant write it of in these terms.... UNLESS you can find the data, whereby the first half of summer in any one year was poor-average and didnt have any hot spell (covering most of the country) by the end of the first week in july, but went on to have a largely hot, dry, sunny second half of july and august. because the hottest 15 summers ALL DID either start by now OR HAD at least one smaller hot spell earlier in the year.

now nothings set in stone, the weather can and will do what it will do, so i cant say difinitively we wont get a long hot summer now... just that going on past stats its highly unlikely.

however.... things model wise are backing off from any sign of a lengthy settled spell with sun/heat. in fact they are shifting towars a more 2012 type pattern with northern blocking and a jet heading into france/spain. once that pattern gets established, who would bet against it NOT being set for several weeks?

those of you who have had some great weather... bully for you! here in derby we have yet to breach the 25c barrier, and i suspect strongly derby is not alone in this. yes, so far it hasnt been bad, but the models are now looking distinctly 2012-ish.

so whilst this coming monsoon might be a blip, i do think the pattern for summer is pretty much set. we might get average, we might gets some shorter hot spells, but the chances of getting a widespread hot spell/heatwave of 5 days + arent that great, and to get a 'long hot summer' the chances are pretty remote.

 

those of you who think im talking crap, come back in 7 weeks and apologise (tony h) - as i promise to if im proven spectacularly wrong.

[simshady]

I would agree primarily with Mushy. I can't see any signs of prolonged settled/hot spell nor can I see a huge washout. If I were a heat lover then I'd just be thankful for the warm weather we are having which all in all is a normal, down to earth, British Summer. Nothing amazing, nothing terrible.

Edited July 8, 2014 by simshady

[Thundery wintry showers]

Homogeneity has been one of the biggest features of this year so far, with temperatures regularly in the "above average but unexceptional" category and few noteworthy warm or cold spells.  We could compare and contrast the summer of 1996 for example, when each of the three main summer months produced a slightly above-average Central England Temperature, but temperatures fluctuated considerably from one week to the next rather than staying close to the mean.

[Captain Shortwave]

however.... things model wise are backing off from any sign of a lengthy settled spell with sun/heat. in fact they are shifting towars a more 2012 type pattern with northern blocking and a jet heading into france/spain. once that pattern gets established, who would bet against it NOT being set for several weeks?

those of you who have had some great weather... bully for you! here in derby we have yet to breach the 25c barrier, and i suspect strongly derby is not alone in this. yes, so far it hasnt been bad, but the models are now looking distinctly 2012-ish.so whilst this coming monsoon might be a blip, i do think the pattern for summer is pretty much set. we might get average, we might gets some shorter hot spells, but the chances of getting a widespread hot spell/heatwave of 5 days + arent that great, and to get a 'long hot summer' the chances are pretty remote.

 

those of you who think im talking crap, come back in 7 weeks and apologise (tony h) - as i promise to if im proven spectacularly wrong.

 

Please show some charts to suggest any 2012(esque) weather setting up. Because I can't see any. Looks like a Euro high/Atlantic trough scenario with the jet passing through the UK after this weekend. Not 2012 like at all. 

[Polar Maritime]

ha... well that stired things up abit!

 

cant write off anything yet?

 

again it depends on what you mean by writing off..... im writing off any hope of another 06, 13, 95, you know, 

 

You should of said...

[Thundery wintry showers]

Indeed.  June and most of July 2012 had a strong southerly tracking jet with low pressure systems heading in from the Atlantic, and when the lows became slow-moving they brought a lot of cloud and frontal activity with them.  I don't see much likelihood of that sort of regime happening in the next couple of weeks.

[mushymanrob]

Please show some charts to suggest any 2012(esque) weather setting up. Because I can't see any. Looks like a Euro high/Atlantic trough scenario with the jet passing through the UK after this weekend. Not 2012 like at all. 

 

the gfs 06z was... the 12z isnt. but still has low pressure at play so it might not end up exactly like 2012 , possibly more like 2002 which was warm at times but not dry with rain never far away (think it was 02). and it appears we are in for some pretty rainy few days from thursday onwards.

 

either way, its pretty obvious theres no settled, dry, sunny warmth (as in decent spells) other then a day or two here and there.

You should of said...

 

not a clue what you mean... ive been over all this a couple of weeks ago, i did say, todays outburst was an update.

[Polar Maritime]

either way, its pretty obvious theres no settled, dry, sunny warmth (as in decent spells) other then a day or two here and there.

 

Aye Rob, A continuation of the same pattern looking at the Models.

[cheese]

the gfs 06z was... the 12z isnt. but still has low pressure at play so it might not end up exactly like 2012 , possibly more like 2002 which was warm at times but not dry with rain never far away (think it was 02). and it appears we are in for some pretty rainy few days from thursday onwards.

 

either way, its pretty obvious theres no settled, dry, sunny warmth (as in decent spells) other then a day or two here and there.

The forecast looks warm with sunny spells and showers - probably rather humid. A world away from 2012, which was just cold and wet.

 

The forecast for Leeds - looks very nice to me. Am I missing something? Does it need to be hot in order for the weather to be enjoyable and usable?

 

Tbh, I'm a little surprised at you mushy - you seem to be falling into the same trap that some users have fallen into - i.e anticipating poor weather, even though it never arrives. I've been waiting for poor weather to arrive since early June, but it hasn't thus far. Still waiting.. and waiting.. and waiting..

Edited July 10, 2014 by Paul

[mushymanrob]

The forecast looks warm with sunny spells and showers - probably rather humid. A world away from 2012, which was just cold and wet.

 

The forecast for Leeds - looks very nice to me. Am I missing something? Does it need to be hot in order for the weather to be enjoyable and usable?

 

Tbh, I'm a little surprised at you mushy - you seem to be falling into the same trap that users such as shedhead and draztik have fallen into - i.e anticipating poor weather, even though it never arrives. I've been waiting for poor weather to arrive since early June, but it hasn't thus far. Still waiting.. and waiting.. and waiting..

 

i accept that referring to the weather as 2012 like was alittle overly depressive! but tomorrow looks pretty dire, heavy rain, strong winds, temps mid teens...

 

no the weather doesnt need to be hot to be enjoyable or usable... but its nice to get some heat in summer, and if summer is (as i expect) average it wont be too bad. but atm ive alot of scented flowers out, buddlia, jasmine, lilies, heat and humidity really brings out the scents so thats why i would like some! otherwise ill have to wait another year.

and i am guilty of being pessimistic... i know that, you know that, so we can live with it!

[Mokidugway]

Looks like standard summer fare to me ,a lot better than 2012 !!....

[snow freak]

summer so far has been disappointing in the eastern counties.  Yes it has been fairly warm but not consistently sunny.  i can't remember a day so far when we have had clear blue skies all day, which is quite uncommon even for the UK.  Also no really hot temperatures either.  Definately not a summer to remember so far.  I just hope things improve through August and September before we head into another long winter.  Lets hope the coming winter is not a repeat of last year's dismal offering too.

[mushymanrob]

Looks like standard summer fare to me ,a lot better than 2012 !!....

indeed it is, but whats wrong with wanting some heat?

[Captain Shortwave]

indeed it is, but whats wrong with wanting some heat?

I think we might well get some next week. Hopefully it will reach your area as well. Models look decent for at least a very warm south westerly, if not a proper southerly plume.

[Mokidugway]

indeed it is, but whats wrong with wanting some heat?

absolutly nothing bring it on if there's a chance !!

[TonyH]

 

weatherguru14, on 08 Jul 2014 - 11:18, said:How can you write off anything? the models are useless. The gfs for starters.. shows  heat     then 5 hours later its gone again. no one knows what will happen in the next 5 days.But its been  a pretty average to poor summer so far in this part of the world.. You can throw all the stats at me all you want..June may have been warmer than average.It was  very dull..I don't  wanna mention July far.. one decent day in 8.. Its ranining again now though.

Pretty average actually for June Yorkshire sunshine

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts

Edited July 10, 2014 by TonyH

[TonyH]

i accept that referring to the weather as 2012 like was alittle overly depressive! but tomorrow looks pretty dire, heavy rain, strong winds, temps mid teens...

 

no the weather doesnt need to be hot to be enjoyable or usable... but its nice to get some heat in summer, and if summer is (as i expect) average it wont be too bad. but atm ive alot of scented flowers out, buddlia, jasmine, lilies, heat and humidity really brings out the scents so thats why i would like some! otherwise ill have to wait another year.and i am guilty of being pessimistic... i know that, you know that, so we can live with it!

Dire this morning in Chellaston Mushy?

Edited July 10, 2014 by TonyH

[TonyH]

Almost half way through Summer and it has been rather dry, rather warm and reasonably sunny to this stage.

[snow freak]

Been a pretty dire summer so far in the east midlands to be honest.  Just lots of cloudy days with hardly any days with unbroken sunshine as yet.  normally it is the western side of the country and wales which gets the more unsettled weather but this year it seems to be getting all the good weather while the eastern side gets the cloud and cool temperatures.  I hope the remainder of this summer improves for us in the east as the thought of a mundane summer followed by a non descript winter fills me with dread.

[Scorcher]

Dire this morning in Chellaston Mushy?

 

Lovely day at the cricket in Nottingham! The word 'dire' is highly overused on these forums!