Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

[phil nw.]

With the Winter half of the year now behind us it's agood time to start a new thread to take us through the warmer part of the year.

This thread is for all general comments around the weather charts and model outputs wrt what members hope for or are disappointed in etc.

A more loosely based thread where you can give freer rein to your views but of course usual forum rules for respectful and polite postings still apply.

 

Ok continue when ready.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Todays 12Z's will be a rare example of ECMWF FI being right over GFS, do not normally rate ECM post 192, but this looks accurate

[Summer Sun]

Todays 12Z's will be a rare example of ECMWF FI being right over GFS, do not normally rate ECM post 192, but this looks accurate

 

Why would this be? is it be because its the only one showing cooler unsettled weather or what?

Edited March 31, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Costa Del Fal]

Todays 12Z's will be a rare example of ECMWF FI being right over GFS, do not normally rate ECM post 192, but this looks accurate

What utter tripe. Just because it shows the unsettled option or what you want? Im sure you wouldnt say that if it was the other way round.

 

Obviously im not discounting the ECM. For all we know it may be right but what evidence have you got to support the ECM?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

hate unsettled, want ECM wrong, but we are in the UK and unsettled is more common than settled, hope not to see other models trend towards ECM

[Summer Sun]

hate unsettled, want ECM wrong, but we are in the UK and unsettled is more common than settled, hope not to see other models trend towards ECM

 

Fair do's, hopefully ECM will back track GEM is certainly consistent at the moment wanting high pressure to build early next week

 

The ECM ensemble looks better at day 9 and 10 with pressure rising from the SW

 

[Average Joe]

All I will say is thank the Lord the winter is over and a bit of sun & warmth is hopefully on its way. No endless snow flake watching for the next few months!! Bliss. 

[phil nw.]

A nice looking trend for some fine weather developing in the ens next week especially away from the far north.

The high pressure lurking near the Azores showing signs of an early visit as modeling moves it towards us next week.

I hope this verifies and gives us a spell of warm Spring sunshine-it will be welcomed by many i would think  after the endless rain we have had through the dreadful Winter.

[Tony27]

i find it a real chore to check the models everyday in spring and summer as i am no longer a fan of hot weather and i don't really care about these seasons, but i feel like i have to check the models purely out of habit, just looking at the bbc 5 dayer won't be any good as that is useless

[Milhouse]

Not too bothered about the Atlantic returning, as looking at the models there doesnt look to be any vigorous deep lows heading our way any time soon. Changeable would be a good way of describing it rather than unsettled. It would also mean a return to cleaner air and would raise temperatures over this side of the country that have been pegged back recently.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think it looks like being mostly cloudy until the 7th thanks to the moist SW flow but I think the fairly slack anticyclonic pattern that is projected to start on the 8th should bring plenty of sunny dry weather to most of the country.  There is a move on this morning's outputs towards bringing westerlies back in around the 11th/12th, restricting the fine spell to just a few days' duration, but the breakdown is 8-9 days away and so is likely to be revised in the next few days.

[Richard2901]

The sooner an Atlantic flow returns the better. Currently in the midst of one of the worst ever spring spells with 6 sunless days out of 10 and 8 days out of 10 with <2hrs sun. Probably the most hideous spell this late in the spring since the ghastly May of 1983. Even April 2012 which was the dullest for over 70 years never produced a spell this grim

 

It hasn't reached 10C since the 19th March with just one frost in that time. So not only are we seeing the same dire lack of temperature variation as throughout the whole winter but exactly the same temperatures as well.  So far over half the days this year (54%) have had a maximum temperature in the very narrow range of between 5.0 and 7.5C. It's unbelievable

 

For mind-numbingly tedious and unpleasant weather this year is worse than 2002, 2007 and 2011 combined. The worst start to a year in living memory with no close competitors.

[on the coast]

I so agree. What a horrible 7 days this has been. At least a Westerly regime on the East coast brings out that warming yellow thing in the sky.

[phil nw.]

I so agree. What a horrible 7 days this has been. At least a Westerly regime on the East coast brings out that warming yellow thing in the sky.

Yes it's been pretty grim and dull here too since the weekend so the change will be welcomed by many of us, though granted folks along parts of the east coast have had this for longer.

Changeover day tomorrow so not long to wait now.

[Summer Sun]

Could be on for a more settled 2nd half of April (something the GFS ensemble is hinting at) leading to a nice Easter hopefully surely this years won't be anywhere near as cold as it was last year!

 

@MattHugo81 

 

Long way away, but despite possible unsettled mid-month period, signs are for a potentially settled 2nd half to April.

 

Edited April 4, 2014 by Summer Sun

[049balt]

ECM appears to have moved next weeks High a little further North.

[knocker]

Having diligently studied studied various teleconnections, the type and price of fish currently on sale at Newlyn, Joan the Wad and an old Cornish sage I've concluded that Easter will be quite dry if somewhat cool.

 

[Summer Sun]

Lots of flipping and flopping as you'd expect at this range for the Easter weekend the 06z is now showing some pretty warm air coming up from the south during good Friday and Easter Saturday

 

 

Quite a warm day UK wide Easter Sunday with the driest weather likely to be in the east

 

 

It then goes downhill on Easter Monday with cooler air and low pressure breaking though but we still have a lot to play for over the coming 8 days or so for the Easter weekend with all options open

 

 

Interesting update from the met office today they seem be leaning towards another pressure rise later after an unsettled spell during the latter half of next week the below goes to the 22nd

 

Conditions are likely to deteriorate from the west on Wednesday into Thursday as spells of rain and windier conditions push across the country possibly introducing cooler temperatures with the risk of snow across northern high ground.

 

Thereafter, despite considerable uncertainty, there is an increasing signal for pressure to rebuild from the west or southwest bringing a return to more settled conditions.

Edited April 8, 2014 by Summer Sun

[CongletonHeat]

Easter weekend looks really ambiguous, each run is completely different to the one before, it seems.

 

Agreed although the Met update shows some promise, really hope we don't get the cool northerly rubbish to ruin the Bank holiday weekend.

[knocker]

Well this is definitely one scenario that hopefully will be completely wrong.

Edited April 8, 2014 by knocker

[Thundery wintry showers]

Arctic northerlies/north-westerlies at this time of year can provide a lot of interest for the convection fans- the combination of cold air and solar heating near the surface can produce some dramatic conditions with sharp wintry showers including hail and thunder and sharp temperature fluctuations.

However, I think that weather type is very unlikely to happen around Easter this year because it typically relies upon a relatively blocked setup with high pressure to the west of the British Isles, like this chart for example:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950419.gif

Current model outputs are suggesting that pressure will remain relatively low around Iceland towards Easter which means that if we get a significant northerly influence, chances are the main emphasis will be on cold cloudy wet weather with frequent frontal passages, as is showing near the end of the ECMWF run.

 

But the NOAA 8-14 day outlook, which is arguably the most reliable indicator at that time range, suggests that the most likely regime over the British Isles for Easter will be anticyclonic/westerly with above-average heights over central Europe and the southern half of Britain and an enhanced Icelandic low.  This would most likely favour some warm sunshine in the south but cooler cloudier conditions for the north-west.

[knocker]

But the NOAA 8-14 day outlook, which is arguably the most reliable indicator at that time range, suggests that the most likely regime over the British Isles for Easter will be anticyclonic/westerly with above-average heights over central Europe and the southern half of Britain and an enhanced Icelandic low.  This would most likely favour some warm sunshine in the south but cooler cloudier conditions for the north-west.

 

Funny enough Tws, as you no doubt know, up until they shot the above out of the blue, so to speak, they have been somewhat near your suggestion on occasion.

[Summer Sun]

Easter weekend again looking very different from the 06Z. Good Friday and Holy Saturday see quite a cold low to the NW of Britain that could bring some wintry showers to the north and west country. The southeast has slightly higher pressure and much warmer air. Easter Sunday itself sees a low move up from the continent and into the southeast, later moving into the North Sea. Easter Monday sees another low swing in from the Atlantic bringing fresher air to all of the country.

 

Totally different than the previous run where we saw high pressure to the east and a strong southerly wind. 

 

Its going to be a while yet before we start and see any sort of consistency for the Easter weekend look at around mid next week before we should start and get a better idea for now it would be a brave person to make a firm call on it

[Summer Sun]

Still it is really weird that the models suggest something completely different in the space of just a couple hours.

 

And yet again that's whats happening this morning the 00z brought a very unsettled Easter weekend whereas the 06z has high pressure closer by again with a breakdown to more unsettled conditions coming on Easter Monday

 

Good Friday

 

 

Saturday

 

 

Easter Sunday

 

 

Easter Monday sees low pressure breaking through

 

 

We are going to see a lot of twists and turns over the next 7 days before we get a begin to get any firm agreement thats for sure

[Thundery wintry showers]

Funny enough Tws, as you no doubt know, up until they shot the above out of the blue, so to speak, they have been somewhat near your suggestion on occasion.

Indeed, and I'm seeing more agreement from this morning's outputs on a significant possibility of a cooler, more cyclonic outlook becoming established through the Easter period with high pressure retreating southwards.

Edited April 9, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers