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Summer 2014 thread


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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    I hope the mods don't mind me opening this one now, it is only just under two months to go.

    Personally I hope for a decent summer with good thundery interludes especially at night.

    Nice to have a decent storm at night, thunder days have been pretty mediocre around here the last 4 summers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

    Summer is approaching but its still 2 months away which is good really as April/May have the potential to be very nice months given the right conditions. I would love a repeat of last July. The longest run of 28c+ temps since 1997. That will take some beating.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    I am reminded of the pattern that we saw in 1989 and 1990, with strongly "westerly" winters, a weaker westerly type into March with frequent high pressure ridging into Europe, and subsequent hot dry sunny summers.  1995 was a near-approach to this synoptically as well, as the relatively cold March was mainly the result of some unusually cold westerlies mixed with warm anticyclonic interludes.  A paper in Weather some time ago noted a 20th-century correlation between a positive NAO and dry summers, where there is a strong statistical link between dry summers and heat and sunshine which has a strong "synoptic climatology" basis behind it (though it isn't a hard-and-fast rule).

     

    On this basis we could be in for a hot dry sunny summer, but I am wary of the fact that in meteorology, statistical links sometimes appear to hold over a long period and then abruptly stop "working", and also that the three most recent instances of the "westerly winter, weaker westerly type into March with more anticyclonic influence" pattern were 2000, 2002 and, ahem, 2007...

     

    Thus I cannot commit to a specific prediction at this stage, but I will be, as usual, hoping for a mix of warm dry sunny anticyclonic spells, hot thundery interludes (plume type setups) and slack cyclonic interludes with limited frontal activity and a mix of sunny spells and thundery downpours, so rather more similar to a typical continental European summer than a typical British one.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    i am hoping for an average British summer..not too hot, not too cold..relatively dry and a little breezy any rain to fall over night or just some passing daytime showers...i am going to have to re-adjust to high humidities that often make the British weather seem hotter than it is.

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    Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury

    I am reminded of the pattern that we saw in 1989 and 1990, with strongly "westerly" winters, a weaker westerly type into March with frequent high pressure ridging into Europe, and subsequent hot dry sunny summers.  1995 was a near-approach to this synoptically as well, as the relatively cold March was mainly the result of some unusually cold westerlies mixed with warm anticyclonic interludes.  A paper in Weather some time ago noted a 20th-century correlation between a positive NAO and dry summers, where there is a strong statistical link between dry summers and heat and sunshine which has a strong "synoptic climatology" basis behind it (though it isn't a hard-and-fast rule).

     

    On this basis we could be in for a hot dry sunny summer, but I am wary of the fact that in meteorology, statistical links sometimes appear to hold over a long period and then abruptly stop "working", and also that the three most recent instances of the "westerly winter, weaker westerly type into March with more anticyclonic influence were 2000, 2002 and, ahem, 2007......

     

    And 2012. The anticyclonic influence started in February rather than March, but it had that same pattern. What 89-90, 94-95 and 13-14 had in common was that places that normally escape the worst of the rain in westerly setups got a lot of it, e.g. SE England and the Midlands. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    It almost seems that we go through different summer "phases" because the period from 2003 to 2006 was a warmer and sunnier phase - we got some pretty decent summers then, with some pretty lengthy warmer spells (even though I was too young to remember them). 2007 then saw a turn-around into a period of cooler, wetter summers which lasted up until 2012.

     

    Hopefully this means that 2013 was a transition back into a warmer and sunnier phase and not just a one off. Maybe this means we can expect a good summer this year, if we are now in a warmer phase?

    ill think you will find the period 1989-2006 (not just 03-06) was punctured by numerous good summers months...89,90,91,94,95,97,99,03,05&06..all had at least one hot and sunny month..since then only last summer has produced a hot sunny month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth, HANTS, UK
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth, HANTS, UK

    Id like to stay optimistic for our summer prospects...BUT... at the moment this year feels more like 2002 than any other (I have lived in the UK since 1997). Looking at the CET for the year so far we are quite some way in advance of where we should be as an average and my feeling at some point there will be a correction.

     

    2002 is a good fit because till the end of May we were 4.5 ahead of where we should have been on average but a disappointing nothing summer ensured we didnt go off the chart for warmth. Still came in at 10.61 for the year which is I think the 3rd highest ever after 2006 and 2011.

     

    So far 2014 is 4 degrees above average till the end of March and you would think April will add at least another degree to that. Got to be a correction at some point I figure. Maybe not wet since we had such a deluge in the winter but a correction of the warmth.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Well like I said, I wasn't even living for half of those summers (I'm 16) but you get my point.

     

    Streuth when I was 16 I joined the METO. Now a summer like that summer, 1959, would be ideal.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Judging by the stats, the summer of 1959 was exceptional for its longevity- the summer quarters of 1976 and 1995 were more remarkable for heat, sun and drought but in both cases the warm/hot dry sunny conditions broke down as we headed into September, whereas in 1959 they continued through September and well into October.

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    Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

    I wouldnt mind a summer like 2009 I think it was as we had some good thundery days and nights then and some decent warm stretches!

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    Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury

    ill think you will find the period 1989-2006 (not just 03-06) was punctured by numerous good summers months...89,90,91,94,95,97,99,03,05&06..all had at least one hot and sunny month..since then only last summer has produced a hot sunny month.

    The summers of 1998-2002 inclusive seemed like a pretty poor run at the time, with only July 1999 in that period being a decent warm dry sunny month; however they merely seem poor-to-average after the 2007-2012 horrors.
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    Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

    It seems at the moment the models are upgrading high pressure as we get closed to T+0. A few years ago the opposite would always happen in summer with a promising Azores ridge being squashed as we got nearer the time. Lots of upgrades of high pressure this Summer please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    Examples of summers that I'm sure many of us don't want: 2007, 2010, 2012

    0r 85,86,87 & 88..four cool wet summers on the bounce..i think the summers of the late 70's were pretty poor as well from what i remember but was just a boy back then

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    Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

    All I want is 35c from the 6th of june to the 23rd please.

     

    No wind either, So I can spend as much time as possible out at sea fishing!

     

    Not much to ask is it?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    May-July i want sunshine and heat akin to May 08, June 03 and July 06. August onward i want a quick breakdown akin to August 10.

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    Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

    I want this summer to be really hot and sunny with a lot of Thunderstorms in the mix as well. I want to see 30C-34C this summer but that's a massive ask for this place. Last July was the best summer weather I've experienced or remember (I know 2003 was great but I'm not sure it had an impact up here or not). I'd love to see proper tropical weather. Posted Image

    Edited by Ross Andrew Hemphill
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    I would personally take the sort of weather we got during the July heatwave last year but starting earlier was the best July month up here in Darlington since 2006

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Examples of summers that I'm sure many of us don't want: 2007, 2010, 2012

    Think 2011 and 2008 were equally as bad as them. 5 horrendous summers in a row, with not ONE proper night time storm! Pretty unprecedented to say the least!

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Latest from NOAA re the probability of El-Nino developing

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    You're right, all of those summers were bad but I would say that 2007, 2010 and 2012 were the worst of the worst. 2008, 2009 and 2011 were just bad.

    Couldn't agree more mate!

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    Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

    Won't be a happy bunny if we don't have a nice summer after the winter we've just had, the thought of rain, cloud, wind and temperatures in the lower teens makes my stomach turn.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    I want this summer to be really hot and sunny with a lot of Thunderstorms in the mix as well. I want to see 30C-34C this summer but that's a massive ask for this place. Last July was the best summer weather I've experienced or remember (I know 2003 was great but I'm not sure it had an impact up here or not). I'd love to see proper tropical weather. :)

    20 years ago, we had a great summer for thundery weather. Some good plumes and pretty decent thunderstorms. The last 4 years have been really poor around here for thundery activity.
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    Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

    You're right, all of those summers were bad but I would say that 2007, 2010 and 2012 were the worst of the worst. 2008, 2009 and 2011 were just bad.

     

    I think it's a bit unfair these summers always get lumped together but I guess it depends what your preferences are and where you're located.  Definitely agree it's been poor for thunderstorms recently and none of these summers were exceptional, but like you say some were a lot worse than others.  For me, 2007, 2008 and 2012 were by far the worst, with 2012 being exceptionally bad (the 'winter 13/14' of summers).  2010 was reasonable here - the great June was let down by late summer, but I'd still rate it above any of the others between 2007 and 2012 and probably also above 2002 and 2004.  2011 was just dull and nondescript.  

     

    We're not overdue a wet summer but what we're probably overdue is a cold summer - 1985, 86 and 87 were all colder than anything we've had since 1993.  Not that this means anything - we were overdue a cold April in 2011 :)  

     

    A repeat of last summer would suit me fine - as some have said warm and sunny summers do often seem to come in pairs, e.g. 1975/6, 1989/90, 1995/6, 2005/6, although this pattern doesn't seem to go back before 1975 as far as I can see (e.g. 1955 looks to have been good from the data, but 1954 and 1956 weren't).

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