Convective / Storm Discussion - 20th May 2014 onwards

[Jane Louise]

A lot of cloud cover here this morning but the sun is trying to come out. My nearest station at Staverton is saying 'heavy thunderstorm rain' so to combine this with  Nicks forecast I may be lucky . But oh, what I would give to experience what Wales did yesterday! Good luck everybody for today.

[DeepSnow]

We had more thunder and lightning here last night, my housemates said most people were standing in the street watching it because it was so bright! alas of course I had somehow managed to sleep through this! Hope for some more today though, but also for those that missed out to get their share

[paul m]

The sun is beaming here in Hull at the moment. Heading back to west yorks later, see that the TAF for Leeds Bradford now has PROB40 for thunderstorms which is a good sign.

Overcast at the moment. Hopefully the cloud will start to thin soon. 14c at the moment

[Supacell]

Already 20c in London. The forecast temperature is around 21-22c, I can see this being beaten.

 

Only 14c here which is cooler than this time yesterday but then we are still under a veil of cloud after the earlier showers. I am feeling quite optimistic about this afternoon here now, although the risk moves north through the afternoon I think.

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

There will be thunderstorms today, and these will be incredibly lively across North West England, Yorkshire & Lincs etc. Note a similar area of convergence across West/North Wales again too - fireworks for sure!

[Lynxus]

Ohhh I really hate it when Estofex dont have a warning out. I know they may not be working today etc.. But it just worries me lol

 

Fingers crossed. I seemed to miss them all yesterday / night .

 

Its certainly more humid today mind. So thats a good sign.

 

Pretty much says it all.

 

Edited May 20, 2014 by Lynxus

[Love Snow]

Will yorkshire see some action today well leeds :-D?

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

Ohhh I really hate it when Estofex dont have a warning out. I know they may not be working today etc.. But it just worries me lol Fingers crossed. I seemed to miss them all yesterday / night . Its certainly more humid today mind. So thats a good sign.

It's almost categorically because they simply haven't issued one yet. Expect expansive higher risk lightning and a level 1 expanding across Wales, a The Midlands into Northern England - perhaps SW Scotland.

Will yorkshire see some action today well leeds :-D?

I would say a massive YES, very high risk today for Leeds.

[Biggin]

20% risk for me Oh well never mind.

[ChezWeather]

Looking good, temperature is rising nicely, sun is trying its hardest to push through the cloud!

 

Just hoping im not too far south! 

[BrickFielder]

  Early on today I think the South west could see a few storms as a lobe of vroticity passes over. From Mid day Onwards I would expect the pre frontal trough currently over the midlands to start to destabilize as it moves north into the north midlands and north of England.

 

There is a good reason why the north of England and into Scotland should be favoured for storms today. Low level moisture is being swept north to pool over the north of England.

 

That might not be the whole story though. We still have the high level jetstreak sticking its nose into the UK over the afternoon. Storms appear to have developed over France and may head towards the UK.

 

A couple of forecast SkewT's show some of the differences between the north and south.

 

Think looking at the radar and satelite pictures will tell us more than the models now.

 

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

I've done a graphic to illustrate today's storm risk.

Edited May 20, 2014 by Thermohaline Conveyor

[SnowJoke]

Hopefully today will be better than yesterday storm wise around here, was looking forward to being woken up during the early hours by that huge mass in France, but alas not a single rumble, just a light bit of rain around 7 am this morning. Sky is beginning to clear now with some good gaps and the temperature is climbing, humidity levels also feel a lot higher today, currently it's like sitting in the jungle. Popped out to the shops a while back for some smokes and the clouds were interesting, cirro-stratus with alto cumulus undulatus underneath, showing signs of instability in the mid levels. 

[Cloudwatcher]

I'm out of the NSC after last nights fun and games!

[SnowJoke]

Not sure if it was anomalous or not but my lightning app on the iPhone just went off saying there was a strike within 10KM radius of Milton Keynes, can anyone confirm, can't see anything on the sferic plotter.

[Supacell]

I'm out of the NSC after last nights fun and games!

 

The wait was worth it I hope

 

Sun is out here now and it feels very sticky. As SnowJoke says, feels much more thundery out there than it did yesterday.

 

I am now confused as to what to do when I leave at 12. I was thinking East Yorkshire as per met office forecast/warning but most of the forecasts today seem to be favoring more to the NW. Maybe I just head North

Edited May 20, 2014 by Supacell

[pip22]

Not sure if it was anomalous or not but my lightning app on the iPhone just went off saying there was a strike within 10KM radius of Milton Keynes, can anyone confirm, can't see anything on the sferic plotter.

What is that lightning app called?

[Darren Bown]

Not sure if it was anomalous or not but my lightning app on the iPhone just went off saying there was a strike within 10KM radius of Milton Keynes, can anyone confirm, can't see anything on the sferic plotter.

Which app is this Snow?

The wait was worth it I hope  Sun is out here now and it feels very sticky. As SnowJoke says, feels much more thundery out there than it did yesterday. I am now confused as to what to do when I leave at 12. I was thinking East Yorkshire as per met office forecast/warning but most of the forecasts today seem to be favoring more to the NW. Maybe I just head North

I think it'll be a now casting job, hopefully something may have fired by 12/1 so you can make your decision!Has anyone a location of the convergence winds for today?

[SnowJoke]

What is that lightning app called?

 

Links here mate, it's run by meteo group BV - http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/lightning/LightningApp

 

You can set alarm to go off even a night and wake you if your dedicated

Edited May 20, 2014 by SnowJoke

[Liam J]

Dew points are up on yesterday, currently 15c with an air temp of 17.6c & glimpses of sun in a light NE'ly breeze, 89% humidity. 

[Nick L]

As feared, completely overcast here thanks to the remnants of godzilla-turned-gecko from France last night.

[joggs]

Hope that band re-intensifies soon to give us something in west yorks lol.

Most of the parameters are being met for later on here.Good luck all.

Edited May 20, 2014 by joggs

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Plenty of time yet folks.

Some stuff brewing over Central Southern France heading northwards. Hopefully it will stay in tact come evening time, with the aid of a strengthening jet, it may well be more organised, more so than last night.

[SteveB]

Not a chance in hell here, way to cloudy, not seen the sun since early morning.

[shaky]

Sun looked like it was coming out but its now really struggling to burn through!!not looking good here at all!!