Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[A.J]

Just finally got around to looking at the charts so miles behind. Definite downgrade from yesterday i.e cin has increased a lot and cape has dropped a lot although still plenty of it. South east expected to be in the clear for once so expect this place to have the storms. Always seems to happen like that.

I'm going to apply the normal rules. The H word == None event. Over excited forecasters == None event

Hi Pit, in this setup I'm actually pleased to see an increase of convective inhibition, as a stronger cap will be in place during the morning. This will allow a potential 'pressure cooker' to brew in the sub 850hpa boundary, and as the cap erodes in conjunction with potentially strong isolation, explosive convection is on the cards for some as the convection breaks through the cap.....if the cap is weak or no cap then convection happens far more readily and the energy is dispersed through the layers meaning, yes, there would be more thunderstorms about, but they would be generally weak popcorn affairs as opposed to more isolated strong thunderstorms where the energy would not be dispersed so readily and would be more concentrated in one area

Edited June 6, 2014 by ajpoolshark

[Liam J]

Interesting forecast discussion from Simon Keeling. His "thunder zone" is not where I have seen other people believe it could be.

 

Nice to see him pin point NW England, he might be a bit off with that one though!! Welcome to Netweather btw  

Edited June 6, 2014 by Liam J

[phil nw.]

A good sat image of the curl of cloud around the low to our south west.

 

 

plenty of heat over Spain and France building now coming north ahead of the fronts on the southerly wind.

 

 

It looks like the first wave of convectional percipitation will cross the Channel towards mid-night based on the last NMM run.

 

 

as ever radar/sat watch will be the way to go later this evening as things develop over France.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 6, 2014 by phil nw.

[Bobby]

A lot of altocumulus castellanus spreading up from the S now. Charts not looking as good as they were yesterday, perhaps the dreaded "thundery rain" is what we'll get in the end. Hard to tell though, no doubt some surprises!

 

Current skies to the S

 

Edited June 6, 2014 by Bobby

[Mapantz]

Lightning activity increasing across Spain now..

[Liam J]

A good sat image of the curl of cloud around the low to our south west.

 

getpicture.jpg fax0s.gif

 

 

You can see the weak warm front on the satellite image over western areas, there is a bit more high cloud around this afternoon compared with earlier, the warm and humid air will be following in behind - Could be quite a sticky one for sleeping overnight! 

[Buriedundersnow]

Interesting forecast discussion from Simon Keeling. His "thunder zone" is not where I have seen other people believe it could be.

 

 

i'll bank that forecast I'm not quite in his high risk bit but I am in the bit where he reckons the storms will be and it would be good to get some good storms here for a change as usually don't get much

[William Grimsley]

I saw more altocumulus castellanus cloud while I was out. Feeling very warm and muggy but the wind is phenomenal. Has touched damaging here recently.

[Liam J]

Temps hitting close to 30c across parts of N Spain & France now http://www.xcweather.co.uk/FR/observations

[Karl83]

I feel the beers may have to stay in the fridge tonight. May have to chase rather than wait me thinks.

[summer blizzard]

All due respect to Mr Keeling, but it's foolhardy to be basing it off of precipitation charts. I'll disregard it in this complexed setup.

 

In such a complex setup that's wise.

 

My personal feeling is that the best place for pure thundery showers/hail/tornados will be the east and west Midlands. The north west of England will probably have the highest risk of widespread thundery rain but for many hours places could just see torrential rain.

[TonyH]

Cloudy now, some heavy showers in the area and spitting here.

[The PIT]

Interesting forecast discussion from Simon Keeling. His "thunder zone" is not where I have seen other people believe it could be.

 

Interesting and informative. Used to find to find a predicted sounding closer to us than Cambridge .

[phil nw.]

You can see the weak warm front on the satellite image over western areas, there is a bit more high cloud around this afternoon compared with earlier, the warm and humid air will be following in behind - Could be quite a sticky one for sleeping overnight! 

Yes Liam particularly in the south where temps are expected to rise later in the night as the warmer air comes across.

16-18C by 6am with high humidity for some in the se quarter look quite possible.

Looking again another wave of activity following on for the morning which appears to be more widespread as the cold front comes through.

This all moving north and east through the afternoon.

Should feel much fresher for many of us by Sunday which should be quite a pleasant day and still warm enough.

[Zephyr]

Hi all, does anyone know if satrep updates anymore I can only seem to get the top right image to load has been like it for a little while now I normally use it to see what type of thunderstorm is over certain area's but haven't been able to as it doesn't seem to be loading for me. 

 

http://www.knmi.nl/satrep/latest.htm

[Gordon Webb]

Yes Liam particularly in the south where temps are expected to rise later in the night as the warmer air comes across.

16-18C by 6am with high humidity for some in the se quarter look quite possible.

Looking again another wave of activity following on for the morning which appears to be more widespread as the cold front comes through.

This all moving north and east through the afternoon.

Should feel much fresher for many of us by Sunday which should be quite a pleasant day and still warm enough.

 

hmm you don't live too far from me never noticed that before

[Supercell 89]

Lots of Alto-cumulus here currently and a nice warm fresh breeze feels really nice currently 22.3c. I've got a hunch that we may get something during the early hours maybe just after midnight, hoping we do as i'll miss anything that fires up during the day tomorrow as I'm at work the majority of the day.

[Robbie Garrett]

Nice to see him pin point NW England, he might be a bit off with that one though!! Welcome to Netweather btw  

And uses Cambridge in East England for the soundings, can't quite put my head around that one. Surely Manchester/Wales would have been a better Soundings choice. I'll eat my hat if all the Midlands/Northwest get the Severe storms again, because I am looking at the MetOffice rainfall prediction and it ties in against what the front/wind direction and where the energy is tonight.

 

If this here is correct, then London and the Home Counties won't exist come tomorrow morning.  Heathrow TAF is going for the following tomorrow AM.

 

 EGLL 061059Z 0612/0718 11010KT CAVOK PROB30 0623/0701 8000 PROB30 TEMPO 0701/0706 VRB03KT 5000 TSRA BKN048CB PROB40 TEMPO 0706/0714 VRB17G28KT 2500 +TSGR BKN014 BKN035CB BECMG 0713/0715 25008KT PROB30 TEMPO 0714/0718 5000 SHRA BKN014

 

 

Probability 30% : Temporary from 07 at 01 UTC to 07 at 06 UTC

Wind 03 kt from variable directions

Visibility 5000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 4800 ft , Cumulonimbus.

thunderstorm rain

Probability 40% : Temporary from 07 at 06 UTC to 07 at 14 UTC

Wind 17 kt from variable directions with gusts up to 28 kt

Visibility 2500 m

Broken clouds at a height of 1400 ft

Broken clouds at a height of 3500 ft , Cumulonimbus.

heavy thunderstorm hail

[Gordon Webb]

Well At Parents house now in case of anything over next 24 hours even they do wish I would make more of an effort to overcome it

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I saw more altocumulus castellanus cloud while I was out. Feeling very warm and muggy but the wind is phenomenal. Has touched damaging here recently.

 

30 mph max gust?

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

[Gael_Force]

Hi all, does anyone know if satrep updates anymore I can only seem to get the top right image to load has been like it for a little while now I normally use it to see what type of thunderstorm is over certain area's but haven't been able to as it doesn't seem to be loading for me. 

 

http://www.knmi.nl/satrep/latest.htm

 

The SAF NWC imaging might be some use to you.

 

http://www.nwcsaf.org/HD/MainNS.jsp

 

Examples.

 

 

[The PIT]

 

And uses Cambridge in East England for the soundings, can't quite put my head around that one. Surely Manchester/Wales would have been a better Soundings choice. I'll eat my hat if all the Midlands/Northwest get the Severe storms again, because I am looking at the MetOffice rainfall prediction and it ties in against what the front/wind direction and where the energy is tonight.

 

 I think he was using it as an example so people could see why the air is unstable which is clearly shown on the skew diagram.

[TonyH]

30 mph max gust?

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

40mph plus gusts in the SW recently:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/sw_latest_weather.html

Not exactly damaging though..

[Bobby]

The first strikes being picked up across Wales!

 

 

And so it begins...

Edited June 6, 2014 by Bobby

[Zephyr]

The SAF NWC imaging might be some use to you.

 

http://www.nwcsaf.org/HD/MainNS.jsp

 

Thanks so much for this, will definitely come in handy over the next 24/48 hours.

Edited June 6, 2014 by Zephyr