Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[Lauren]

I love how now the BBC and Met are only now talking about the T word and putting out warnings, just as it downgrades!

[William Grimsley]

Still nothing has developed over France, oh dear...

[Stephanie Starr]

what does eberyone thin of south lincolnshire gettings some storms mid night onwards

[Buckster]

it was always going to shift east

 

they always do 

 

we might still be lucky here in Essex though - if it doesn't skirt off further

[andy989]

I love how now the BBC and Met are only now talking about the T word and putting out warnings, just as it downgrades!

Only GFS CAPE values have downgraded. CAPE is not the make or break when it comes to T storms, maybe the BBC and met putting out warnings now is a good sign?

Edited June 6, 2014 by andy989

[Harry]

Still nothing has developed over France, oh dear...

 

Oh dear?? Oh dear??? Many a time have thunderstorms erupted during the evening hours...patience my good fellow 

 

Incidentally, first meaningful signs of altocumulus development here in London.

Edited June 6, 2014 by Harry

[Noahjoe]

Still nothing has developed over France, oh dear...

I'm pretty sure the storms weren't meant to start until the evening...

[Summer Sun]

Even if we don't get any thunderstorms some very heavy rain for some areas is still shown especially for tomorrow afternoon

 

[Gordon Webb]

well it has shifted eastwards you just have to look at the met office rain forecast to see that I think

 

there was nothing forecast for london and SE this morning now the one in the earlier hours and the later on tomorrow is worst in the east

 

doesn't mean there wont be anything elsewhere but it does look to have moved a little eastwards

 

selfishly speaking that suits mean I just hope this doesnt come back to kick me in the ass later

[saint]

It's only 5pm, plenty of time for change. Looks like the SE and East could do best now, while areas further West may well be missing out?

[William Grimsley]

Oh dear?? Oh dear??? Many a time have thunderstorms erupted during the evening hours...patience my good fellow 

 

Incidentally, first meaningful signs of altocumulus development here in London.

Lets hope so. I'll be keeping any eye later on.

Even if we don't get any thunderstorms some very heavy rain for some areas is still shown especially for tomorrow afternoon

 

At least I should get some rain. Well, even that might be a struggle, now... 

[The PIT]

Thank God we don't all blindly follow the GFS then, right? :/

Well it does agree with the met office forecast for us. Heavy rain.

[Gael_Force]

Still nothing has developed over France, oh dear...

 

On the local forecasts I'm looking at, nothing was forecast to get going till near midnight.

[William Grimsley]

It's only 5pm, plenty of time for change. Looks like the SE and East could do best now, while areas further West may well be missing out?

Hmmm, well lets put it this way. We have more chance of getting rain, at the current moment in time. However, because we are closest to the weather front we might just get bland rain. That's for us westerners. However, the E may have less rain but are nearer the continent so any rain that does fall is more likely to be thundery. So, it's that weighing up scenario. If you want more rain head W, if you want more chance of thunder head E. That's my turn on it.

[William Grimsley]

On the local forecasts I'm looking at, nothing was forecast to get going till near midnight.

Maybe I was a bit impatient.

[dave48]

For those interested, Keraunos are covering the storms in France below:

 

http://www.keraunos.org/actualites/fil-infos/2014/juin/copie-de-suivi-de-lactivit%C3%A9-orageuse-du-**-mai-2014.html

 

Things starting to get going in the far south, expecting activity to pep up in the north of France this evening.

[The PIT]

I wouldn't write anything off yet. The other day heavy showers and T storms were forecast for eastern England. It didn't happen but eastern Ireland had some instead. Basically whatever the GFS says or the Met Office things don't always turn up as expected on the day.

[William Grimsley]

Still, my local BBC Weather forecast looks encouraging.

 

"This Evening and Tonight: Most places will be dry and fine in the evening. Through the night, scattered heavy and thundery outbreaks of rain will move northeastwards across the region. It will feel quite muggy."

 

"Saturday: Further scattered thunderstorms and intense downpours in the morning, more especially in the east. Somewhat drier and fresher conditions will move in from the west later in the afternoon."

Edited June 6, 2014 by William Grimsley

[Summer Sun]

I haven't managed see the latest forecast from the beeb but this is how they had things at 13:00

 

The rain was shown to get going during the early hours on what will be a humid night with lows of 16c for some in the south

 

For the south things should gradually improve during the day

 

 

By Sunday the worst of the rain will have moved away but some showers are still possible for central, northern and western areas but the south could also get some rain at times given the humidity that will still be around

 

[SnowJoke]

Lol this forum cracks me up sometimes. Still very early days and we have Gordon wishing for no weather and William wishing for an apocalypse.   What will be will be, no amount of wishing or hope casting will change the outcome, just sit back, relax and see what unfolds 

[Karl83]

Got this outside my house right now.

 

[Mokidugway]

Got this outside my house right now.

 

IMAG0193.jpg

supercell material that .........

[Stephanie Starr]

roll on storm time bring then south lincolnshire way camera is charged and ready no work for me either tomorrow so can be up all night 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Got this outside my house right now.

IMAG0193.jpg

What I'm checking out right now, looks promising!

Netweather extra radar indicating that could be turning into a cell!

Edited June 6, 2014 by Ben Sainsbury

[NUT]

Even if tomorrow is a let down, there's still a good chance for some thundery showers on sunday and monday still looking very interesting. Don't be too downhearted if you miss out