Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[TonyH]

Sferics near Llandovery!

The cell (Cb top) is currently on my webcam to the east.

Edited June 6, 2014 by TonyH

[ancientsolar]

All setup and creating a time lapse!

[StormChaseUK]

Its began.  I had a thought that it may be 10pm - 4am rather than the Saturday plume .  No wonder all the Li/Cape has downgraded from tomorrow , it's started today instead.

[Gordon Webb]

just noticed how for overnight this morning the met office had thundery rain over midlands with london and SE dry apart from the far west of the region

 

now its the midlands with not so much rain and london and se getting the first wave and that pattern seems ro continue with the second wave as well (he says hopefully)

Edited June 6, 2014 by Gordon Webb

[William Grimsley]

30 mph max gust?

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

No it was 39 mph here and probably 50 mph locally.

[Panayiotis]

That cell developed in 10mins! Very surprising and showing that anything can happen in these setups....

[Gordon Webb]

welsh mountains probably gave it a hand

 

latest met office rainfall predicter still has the first and second waves more east than this morning

 

hopefully the very worst won't hit me directly

Edited June 6, 2014 by Gordon Webb

[andy989]

The first strikes being picked up across Wales!

 

hiradarzoomv42.pl.png

 

And so it begins...

Nice, maybe they'll build in intensity as they track north towards me. 

[Daniel*]

I think London is going to get something big, bullseye?

In the early hours i reckon a beast is going to come up from the Continent, smashing into the Home counties & London

[Bobby]

Vertical development clear in the convection now

 

Edited June 6, 2014 by Bobby

[Gordon Webb]

I think London is going to get something big, bullseye?

image.jpg

In the early hours i reckon a beast is going to come up from the Continent, smashing into the Home counties & London

 

according to the latest met rain forecast then yes and also the second wave is possibly to do so as well of course I might just be willing it not to come my way so take little notice

[Panayiotis]

Vertical development clear in the convection now

 

I think for Wales later today and overnight will see the best potential for storms, not seeing much for tomorrow now.....

[StormChaseUK]

Vertical development clear in the convection now

 

That's a stunning photo, shows the instability beautifully.

[shaky]

Can see some of those plumey thundery looking clouds towards Kettering from leicester!!got high hopes for tonight!!

[Wilxy]

I think for Wales later today and overnight will see the best potential for storms, not seeing much for tomorrow now.....

 

I think the same stands for are region aswell as the instability slowly pushes north and east during the night. best chance for us is defiantly early hours of tomorrow morning. 

Edited June 6, 2014 by tomjwlx

[Buriedundersnow]

3 o'clock analysis chart and you can see things starting to develop over the bay of Biscay and over spain

 

[Snowshine]

A high CAPE (>700j/kg) and negative LI (<-2) is not always neccessary in producing severe thunderstorms. I remember on March 28th this year; when there was a violent thunderstorm that passed by my area, and the CAPE/LI was not particually high, not even 500j/kg. The temperature was around 8C which is quite cool for Thunderstorms and the humidity was not very high.

 

The 12z GFS models show the CAPE and LI has been downgraded once again, it is slightly disappointing that our opportunity to experience the "WORST HAILSTORMS IN 170 YEARS" looks very unlikely, considering the CAPE has been much higher in the past, however things could change in the coming hours. There is still a possibility for severe thunderstorms with the humidity / temperature and some CAPE/LI, but not as severe as previously thought.

 

[Harry]

Latest MetO view for London & South East England;

 

London & South East England Headline:

Saturday, warm, humid, heavy, thundery downpours clearing later.

This Evening and Tonight:

Evening sunshine then a warm, humid night with an increasing risk of heavy, thundery rain and thunderstorms through the early hours, giving local downpours in places, although some parts may stay dry. Minimum Temperature 14 Â°C.

Saturday:

Further heavy, thundery rain in places, a risk of hail and quite frequent lightning possible, but brighten later, some sunshine developing. Feeling warm and humid, but a little fresher later Maximum Temperature 23 Â°C.

Updated: 1511 on Fri 6 Jun 201

[The PIT]

Latest GFS and massive downgrade I'm afraid folks.  I think the humdingers early doors and Armageddon forecast this lunchtime have driven the nails in. Hopefully overnight things will change the nails fall out.

[Sainsbo]

A high CAPE (>700j/kg) and negative LI (<-2) is not always neccessary in producing severe thunderstorms. I remember on March 28th this year; when there was a violent thunderstorm that passed by my area, and the CAPE/LI was not particually high, not even 500j/kg. The temperature was around 8C which is quite cool for Thunderstorms and the humidity was not very high.

 

The 12z GFS models show the CAPE and LI has been downgraded once again, it is slightly disappointing that our opportunity to experience the "WORST HAILSTORMS IN 170 YEARS" looks very unlikely, considering the CAPE has been much higher in the past, however things could change in the coming hours. There is still a possibility for severe thunderstorms with the humidity / temperature and some CAPE/LI, but not as severe as previously thought.

 

 

At this timeframe, I personally think the hi res moels paint a much better picture, and are often much more reliable. NMM still shows some high cape values and Li's of -7. 12z will be out soon, then we'll have to see.

 

Edited June 6, 2014 by Sainsbo

[Gordon Webb]

A high CAPE (>700j/kg) and negative LI (<-2) is not always neccessary in producing severe thunderstorms. I remember on March 28th this year; when there was a violent thunderstorm that passed by my area, and the CAPE/LI was not particually high, not even 500j/kg. The temperature was around 8C which is quite cool for Thunderstorms and the humidity was not very high.

 

The 12z GFS models show the CAPE and LI has been downgraded once again, it is slightly disappointing that our opportunity to experience the "WORST HAILSTORMS IN 170 YEARS" looks very unlikely, considering the CAPE has been much higher in the past, however things could change in the coming hours. There is still a possibility for severe thunderstorms with the humidity / temperature and some CAPE/LI, but not as severe as previously thought.

 

 

Hopefully as I have trouble dealing with simple thundery showers never mind storms

[Dancerwithwings]

At this timeframe, I personally think the hi res moels paint a much better picture, and are often much more reliable. NMM still shows some high cape values and Li's of -7.

 

That's the 06z you'll have to wait a little longer for the 12z to come out....around 6pm..ish

[Gordon Webb]

At this timeframe, I personally think the hi res moels paint a much better picture, and are often much more reliable. NMM still shows some high cape values and Li's of -7. 12z will be out soon, then we'll have to see.

 

 

isn't the worst of that east of coventry and more E and NE into lincolnshire NE england way (asking from a purely selfish perspective)

[lassie23]

Latest GFS and massive downgrade I'm afraid folks.  I think the humdingers early doors and Armageddon forecast this lunchtime have driven the nails in. Hopefully overnight things will change the nails fall out.

My downgrade was upgraded only to be downgraded, so I guess an upgrade to the downgrade is due.......again!

[Guest]

Latest GFS and massive downgrade I'm afraid folks.  I think the humdingers early doors and Armageddon forecast this lunchtime have driven the nails in. Hopefully overnight things will change the nails fall out.

Thank God we don't all blindly follow the GFS then, right? :/