Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards

[Mapantz]

definitely a decent chance of importing some big storms from France, well at the moment.

That's ruined it for here then?! :laugh:I'm not getting my hopes up over this one, they get dashed every time.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Don't lose hope just yet. This has been in the process of being corrected Westwards. I already thought it was a bust a day or so ago. GFS obviously thinks it was under-amplifying the pattern and has headed towards the original ECM solution. Hpa500 steering winds look to be very favourable along with the 850's at this stage to bring up some colossal storms from France, these sustaining themselves as they engage with such high CAPE at the surface and the mid levels with very rich levels of theta-e plume advecting Northwards (YES NORTHWARDS!!). 

 

Please to god DO NOT change !!!

[johnholmes]

re today, I've looked at the Extra skew-t outputs, based on the GFS 06z run, and nothing for this area or Lincs and only a small prob for parts of East Anglia and SE England, and this decreasing during the afternoon into the evening. So UK Met must have different upper air profiles to what GFS is showing?

 

Looking on the TAF sheet for SE England their aviation side show no more than a 30% prob of mod-hvy shwr and no thunder mentioned.

[TonyH]

Sferics near Ipswich

[TonyH]

Now one by The Wash too

[TonyH]

The one in the Boston area fairly active now, a few over Norfolk looking ripe too!

[Norfolk Sheep]

Couple of rumbles here, just passing to my SW but not within my 5 mile boundary haha

[TonyH]

Don't knock it - it's a day of thunder heard for the weather diary

[TonyH]

3 or 4 lively little cells now producing sferics over EA.

[TonyH]

Talking of days of thunder heard, still waiting for one in July to keep up the 2014 record of thunder heard each month!

[TonyH]

Lightning all around Norwich just now

[TonyH]

One near Deal looks ready

[Chris K]

Holy moly! 

 

I am meant to be climbing Snowdon Friday afternoon....hmmmmm I will be keeping an eye on these outputs very closely....

[Mapantz]

I am meant to be climbing Snowdon Friday afternoon....hmmmmm I will be keeping an eye on these outputs very closely....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-north-west-wales-25902599

[Chris K]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-north-west-wales-25902599

 

Indeed...This is when a forum such as this is very handy because I can read some of the good details people post to make a better judgement.

 

If there is a good chance of thunderstorms during Friday then it would be too exposed and dangerous up there to take the risk. We would be like walking lightning rods....

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

@ Downham Market earlier

[Supacell]

Talking of days of thunder heard, still waiting for one in July to keep up the 2014 record of thunder heard each month!

 

Each month since when? Is this just spring/summer or every month since January as this would be very impressive. I have seen a thunderstorm every month since (and including) April but nothing yet in July either. I am hoping this will change though. Last year I had not seen a single storm until the end of July!

[cloudsabove]

Here are some images of the cell that passed by - only saw one lightning flash, just distant thunder, very sporadic. Case of more interesting structure than content, I think. Very warm and humid, I think today was supposed to happen yesterday (I knew I might have to eat my words after my previous 'rant' post!) Torrential rain after the last cell clipped this location, the odd puddle left over from previous rain transformed into huge lakes on the roads which were practically covered in water. Beginning to rain again as the grey  overcast clears from these storms.

[Neilsouth]

Funnel cloud spotted towards thanet earlier on and towers now

[Buriedundersnow]

big hailstorm batters beach goers in Siberia

 

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=1a0_1405179933

[Summer Sun]

12Z show high cape for Friday

 

 

06z

 

 

A long way off and it may not come off but if it did things would go bang big style...........

[johnholmes]

Yes, looking at the skew-t's for say Doncaster and Skegness I am a bit surprised as the predicted ascents for both (using Extra output), suggests that any deep instability around at the moment will become far less unstable as the day goes on. So bit unsure why they have gone for that but they are the experts.

No basic sonde data available from the usual site to give us the Watnall output.

 

and they were proven largely correct in their warnings and areas, odd that their aviation side when I checked felt mod-hvy sh was sufficient.

[Mokidugway]

The cell over Kent has really taken off ,probably getting ready to become a supercell once it hits the continent !!....

[Love Snow]

Lovely countryfile heat building Thursday and a mention of severe thunder rain fall Friday

[TonyH]

A whopping 66mm for Wattisham past 24 hours, made up of 30mm  last night and 36mm today!

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en&state=United+K&rank=100&ano=2014&mes=07&day=13&hora=18&Send=send

Each month since when? Is this just spring/summer or every month since January as this would be very impressive. I have seen a thunderstorm every month since (and including) April but nothing yet in July either. I am hoping this will change though. Last year I had not seen a single storm until the end of July!

This year