Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards

[paul m]

I've put banners up on the local roundabouts saying "storms are coming"

The Men in the white coats are coming for you !!!!!!!!

[legritter]

Certainly not an easy forecast period from late this thurs and over this coming weekend .Very good potential looking at current charts but any action possible at the moment can only be broadly forecasted .As cloud 10 as just said [,Theres a storm coming Harry ]Atleast we do have plenty of heat moisture and a good Sun at this time of year so hopefully its GAME on for some of us with thunder bolts  to Rattle the roof tiles ,and Lightning to read a paper at Midnight .Each updated FAX chart should be interesting ,catch up with you all later ,cheers .

[lassie23]

I've put banners up on the local roundabouts saying "storms are coming"

Shouldn't you finish off the sentence on your banners?  "to Lincolnshire'! :whistling:

Edited July 14, 2014 by lassie23

[Harry]

 

images.jpg

 

 

I'm just dreading the inevitable headlines from the usual newspaper....my guess is something along the lines of.... "Killer storms set to ravage Britain....Britain is about to experience its worst storms in a generation, with frequent lightning, baseball sized hailstones, flash floods and powerful tornados set to ravage the country. The storms will follow the strongest heatwave ever recorded with temperatures set to top 100F across Southern England and as high as 90F in the Shetland Isles...."....you read it here first

Edited July 14, 2014 by Harry

[lassie23]

 

I'm just dreading the inevitable headlines from the usual newspaper....my guess is something along the lines of.... "Killer storms set to ravage Britain....Britain is about to experience its worst storms in a generation, with frequent lightning, baseball sized hailstones, flash floods and powerful tornados set to ravage the country. The storms will follow the strongest heatwave ever recorded with temperatures set to top 100F across Southern England and as high as 90F in the Shetland Isles...."....you read it here first

Don't forget the usual quote from Jonathan Powell, from Disadvantage Weather Services! Sorry i mean Vantage Weather Services!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

well I ordered a second hi-speed SD card off amazon and hoping it arrives by thursday or I'll be off down to WHSmiths to buy an emergency one! Not having camera no. 2 out of action when and if the action kicks off...

[Lauren]

And if they print that you can guarantee any potential will disappear instantaneously.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Unofrtunately my office window looks out towards NWW. Anything sliding up from the south is obscured by a wall and a hillside. So planning ahead where I'll be placing myself if something starts creeping up towards the central southern coast

 

Exciting times to come, I hope!

[liambailey09]

Looking forward to the potential this coming week, hopefully I'm in a decent position being in the south east. Also heading down to Dorset on Saturday for a week, almost exactly a year from the time I went last year and had a great night time storm head over from France. Can't see that happening again though! 

[Buriedundersnow]

Unofrtunately my office window looks out towards NWW. Anything sliding up from the south is obscured by a wall and a hillside. So planning ahead where I'll be placing myself if something starts creeping up towards the central southern coast

 

Exciting times to come, I hope!

 

on the roof

[Karl83]

True, but I am probably not the only one thinking that it tends to be a little overhyped at this range...

 

I am a bit nervous about the tilt and proximity of the trough moving in from our West. This could interrupt the Northward movement of any potential thundery developments from our South. To me, the models seemingly want to edge this a bit closer to the UK, resulting in the highest temperatures getting increasingly reserved for the SE and pushing any developments from our South to head more NE along the Channel, rather than Northwards across a chunk of England.

 

This means we end up relying more on surface developments during Friday and Saturday, rather than anything pushing up from the South Thursday night. Not necessarily a bad thing though, as long as we don't end up with any leftover MCS muck!

 

Anyway... interesting model watching to see how they handle this. I have a gut feeling of what will happen, based purely on watching the models handle set ups like this in the past. I won't bother say it!

We have both been very disappointed this year haven't we! Maybe this our time.... gulp.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Friday/Saturday's plans:

 

- Camera at the ready

- Full tank of fuel

- Netweather radar/realtime lighting map

- Constant updates into the convective thread

- Afterparty when all is achieved! 

 

Lets have it           

[lassie23]

Friday/Saturday's plans:

 

- Camera at the ready

- Full tank of fuel

- Netweather radar/realtime lighting map

- Constant updates into the convective thread

- Afterparty when all is achieved! 

 

Lets have it           

Hope you don't end up with drizzle! Have you ever snapped drizzle, doesn't make for very interesting photos!

[Harry]

Hmm....12z showing 1000J/Kg SBCAPE across the SE at 0300 

 

That should, in theory, equate to 

[Supacell]

Things still moving around drastically from run to run, as to be expected at this range. Some great looking charts on offer and as has been said, this looks like a classic Spanish plume scenario building. However, it would not take much to send all this across the near continent leaving the UK with very little. It would also not take much to give the UK a stormy period to be remembered. I see the possibility of a July 23rd 2013, but I also see the possibility of lots of disappointed storm fans just wishing they had booked that flight to Holland. Fingers crossed for the best possible option for all of us.

 

And don't take note of any "burning Britain to be flattened by USA style storms" or "Storms set to rip UK from it's foundations and smash it into the North Pole" headlines/quotes

[Captain Shortwave]

Things still moving around drastically from run to run, as to be expected at this range. Some great looking charts on offer and as has been said, this looks like a classic Spanish plume scenario building. However, it would not take much to send all this across the near continent leaving the UK with very little. It would also not take much to give the UK a stormy period to be remembered. I see the possibility of a July 23rd 2013, but I also see the possibility of lots of disappointed storm fans just wishing they had booked that flight to Holland. Fingers crossed for the best possible option for all of us.

 

And don't take note of any "burning Britain to be flattened by USA style storms" or "Storms set to rip UK from it's foundations and smash it into the North Pole" headlines/quotes

Interestingly I think Thursday nights/Fridays event could actually miss most of us due to it being too far west. That thundery low looks like potentially phasing with the main Atlantic trough. The UKMO and GEM show this on their afternoon runs. That's not a bad thing in my opinion as this allows us to prolong and intensify the southerly plume. The day 5 chart from the UKMO looks potentially epic for home grown storm development with two shallow lows sitting across the UK with 850s in the high teens in the east. That is a potentially explosive cocktail.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Well I am now free on Thursday and Friday nights to watch this thing - and also heading down to bath on Saturday for bbq so should be able to see something, at some point, somewhere! The next few nights are 'get all my jobs done so I don't miss the action when it happens' nights. That - and getting excited watching developments :-)

I don't care if that makes me uncool - I love it - bring on the storms!!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

on the roof

Sloped roof with a 3 storey fall onto a busy main road... Not perfect, but if need be...

[paul m]

Not expecting anything as per usual....

[Raidan]

Its hard not to get excited when you see the charts but speaking from experience Bristol has to be one of the worst places to live if you want Thunderstorms.

No matter what the setup we always miss out as storms either pass us or approach us active then become non active as they pass over then become active again once clear of Bristol.

I really hope this is not the case this time around but wouldn't be surprised if this is the case.

Had a belter of a storm last July and would love something like that again but experience has a slight lead over excitement.

Hopefully my negative feeling will be thrown out and Mother Nature delivers.

Sorry to be negative towards this but I am only speaking from experience.

[lassie23]

W

 

Not expecting anything as per usual....

 

Its hard not to get excited when you see the charts but speaking from experience Bristol has to be one of the worst places to live if you want Thunderstorms.No matter what the setup we always miss out as storms either pass us or approach us active then become non active as they pass over then become active again once clear of Bristol.I really hope this is not the case this time around but wouldn't be surprised if this is the case.Had a belter of a storm last July and would love something like that again but experience has a slight lead over excitement.Hopefully my negative feeling will be thrown out and Mother Nature delivers.Sorry to be negative towards this but I am only speaking from experience.

We should all meet up in Lincolnshire this weekend to avoid disappointment !

[paul m]

W

 

 

We should all meet up in Lincolnshire this weekend to avoid disappointment !

yep and the south will get hammered when we do !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Wilxy]

Its hard not to get excited when you see the charts but speaking from experience Bristol has to be one of the worst places to live if you want Thunderstorms.No matter what the setup we always miss out as storms either pass us or approach us active then become non active as they pass over then become active again once clear of Bristol.I really hope this is not the case this time around but wouldn't be surprised if this is the case.Had a belter of a storm last July and would love something like that again but experience has a slight lead over excitement.Hopefully my negative feeling will be thrown out and Mother Nature delivers.Sorry to be negative towards this but I am only speaking from experience.

 

I know your feeling weve only managed 2 very small storms this year etc, 1 rumble of thunder from shower type, not a proper thunderstorm hope this time around could be different but I wont be disappointed if it doesn't happen.

[Mapantz]

I'd be quite happy to take this Theta-e chart on the actual day I'll keep it tucked away to compare with on Friday..

Edited July 14, 2014 by Mapantz

[Mokidugway]

I'm expecting 24hours of raging storms ,chase gear ready ,camera ,check ,burgers ,check ,case of beer ,check ,deckchair ,check, I'm ready !!!.......