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Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards

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lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted

The latest ECMWF precip chart for Saturday shows a very westerly bias, with all the rain travelling up the west side of the country.

Things will shift west, then east, then west, then east again, before the whole lot ends up in the North Sea! :D

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Evening thunder Experienced

Evening thunder

Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
Posted (edited)

I'm currently thinking Thursday night into Friday may be decent for some..

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

GFS charts on Netweather only show SBCAPE but Wetterzentrale seems to incorporate ML CAPE:
Posted Image
Posted Image

 

Storms then move north with a risk of surface based developments too:

Posted Image

Posted Image

So it's possible IMO that Thursday night into Friday may be the chance (mainly) of more western areas, and Saturday perhaps the turn of more eastern areas.

 

For what it's worth the latest ECM showed precip in travelling up the west side of Britain Thursday night, and some storms or a MCS moving into the south (particularly Dorset) on Saturday morning and moving north:

Sat 9am: post-7593-0-75083300-1405429376_thumb.jp

Sat 12:00 post-7593-0-79863200-1405429382_thumb.jp

 

Then some probably convective outbreaks later and in other palces e.g further east, I've just shown the main areas. GFS looks further east for Saturday but ECM other models seem to have led the way with the GFS coming into line so far.

 

Of course the detail will shift around this is just what the GFS/ECM show at the moment..

 

(This post may seem better (less long) if I could put some of the thumbnails side by side but when copy/pasted in they appear full sized when editing so can't do that.)

Edited by Evening thunder
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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted (edited)

Crikey, early Meto warning. Thats it guys, expect drizzle this weekend. Lol.

 

But seriously, GFS seems to be edging towards upgrading this hot spell like the other models so we could be looking at a really decent spell of excellent temperatures interspersed with some really good chances for convective activity. Summer at its best. :D

Certainly very early for a rain/ thunderstorm warning - still 4 days to go

Edited by TonyH
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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

I think this whole event is being over-thought... as is always the case with a plume event, a thunderstorm could break out just about anywhere. BBC don't want to go any further than Thursday daytime with their national forecast which shows their level of uncertainty 

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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

I second that.

 

There will always be an element of things moving further East, but that doesn't mean the West & central England will miss out completely.

 

Plenty of time for things to change for better or worse.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Tbh it is still far too early to look at details. Providing the instability remains its a case of nowcasting. 

 

As has happened time and time again, one MCS can drastically change the fortunes for the following hours/day, so looking at precip forecasts at this stage is extremely futile!

 

Precip charts in my experience are usually of any use only within 24 hours or so (at best!)

 

For now...heat/humidity and instability - Good! Fresher air with less instability - Bad!

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Dami Maestro

Dami

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
Posted (edited)

I'm going to save my thoughts till we reach thurs/fri..

Edited by Dami
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legritter Accomplished

legritter

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
Posted

preparations are already under way for this fri /sat in our household ,All knives forks spoons put away ,lightning conductor will be erected ,clothes line folded up and covered all metal objects put in the shed .A BIG SHOP  and sand bags to the ready ,STellas on ice ,we all know im sure that detail will change but we do i feel have  a good chance ,better than boring total high pressure dominance ,lets hope many of us get some of the action ,cheers .

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Chris101 Aficionado

Chris101

Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
Posted

Tbh it is still far too early to look at details. Providing the instability remains its a case of nowcasting. 

 

As has happened time and time again, one MCS can drastically change the fortunes for the following hours/day, so looking at precip forecasts at this stage is extremely futile!

 

Precip charts in my experience are usually of any use only within 24 hours or so (at best!)

 

For now...heat/humidity and instability - Good! Fresher air with less instability - Bad!

Totally agree, models and forecasts can give you some idea of where troughs will interact with the plume nearer the time and what sort of shape they will take, but any thunderstorm event is always going to be nowcasting to see whether a cell is going to hit your location, you could be right in the middle of a line of storms that moves across the country and still see nothing more than a 10 minute spell of heavy rain, and that will always be the case.

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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted

Nowcasting and radar watching - that's all folks

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

GEM is a stunner for Saturday, all 24 hours..

 

Posted Image

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted (edited)

The majority of use realise nothing is set in stone in this setup but if we don't post charts and have a general discussion about views of what might or might not happen, then we may as well close the thread until Thursday.

As long as there's no mass-hysteria, it's all fine and dandy.

Edited by Mapantz
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

GEM is a stunner for Saturday, all 24 hours..

 

Posted Image

GFS not interested though. Best potential on GFS is overnight Thurs into Friday for central and western parts.

 

Posted Image

Edited by CreweCold
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Ross Andrew Hemphill Community Regular

Ross Andrew Hemphill

Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Surely Scotland should be within the Met Office warning area?? The whole of the UK should be under as latest forecasts have shown all the UK at risk and with the degree of uncertainty with shifts east then west then east, Especially as its a plume event which is quite unpredictable and surprising.

Edited by Ross Andrew Hemphill
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

oh goody , liking the western parts bit !!....

 

My current thoughts are that eastern areas may miss out altogether with the second disturbance (Sat) running to the east of the UK

 

Some convergence with the disturbance on Fri....

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Could be a narrow band of weather when all said and done. Certainly nothing widespread on the GFS.

Edited by CreweCold
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Chris101 Aficionado

Chris101

Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
Posted

GFS not interested though. Best potential on GFS is overnight Thurs into Friday for central and western parts.

GFS looks way to fast at moving things through to be honest, thats not to say its wrong though ECM much slower and UKMO somewhere in between,i'd probably go for the somewhere in between.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

My current thoughts are that eastern areas may miss out altogether with the second disturbance (Sat) running to the east of the UK

 

Some convergence with the disturbance on Fri....

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Could be a narrow band of weather when all said and done.

That looks more like the potential for isolated thunderstorms being triggered by the heat ore than anything else. The GF, GFS says 29C, I think a couple degrees could be added in places. The GFS looks generally quite poor with the timing of rain coming out of France (early hours/morning). The UKMO appears to have a nice battleground for Saturday over Central/Eastern areas, will need the fax charts later to see what potential there is there.

Of course this will all be different in 12 hours time.

 

Lol please let the GEM verify, the 20C isotherm is brushing the south east  :bomb:

Edited by Captain shortwave
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lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted

The majority of use realise nothing is set in stone in this setup but if we don't post charts and have a general discussion about views of what might or might not happen, then we may as well close the thread until Thursday.As long as there's no mass-hysteria, it's all fine and dandy.

I think I will see 100mm of rain, hazelnut sized hail with isolated walnuts sized hail, thunder louder than a jumbo jet and 100 flashes per second! Oh! no mass hysteria then everything is fine and dandy! :oops:

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

More runs needed in this. I do think the east overall will see the best SB activity and I also think some eastward shift will be inevitable as well.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

That looks more like the potential for isolated thunderstorms being triggered by the heat ore than anything else. The GF, GFS says 29C, I think a couple degrees could be added in places. The GFS looks generally quite poor with the timing of rain coming out of France (early hours/morning). The UKMO appears to have a nice battleground for Saturday over Central/Eastern areas, will need the fax charts later to see what potential there is there.

Of course this will all be different in 12 hours time.

 

Quite. I think we've gone from a situation whereby we were looking at 2-3 days of severe storm potential to something more dilute and scattered. Given past situations you'd have to back the GFS.

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Hi, thanks.... It's also available on Android, but it's a paid app...

It's worth it, all weather images are animated and you'll get warnings etc.. :)
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

The school I work at breaks up on Friday, so I'll be free to chase all summer! Hopefully the end of this week is a precursor to a stormy July/August :D

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