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Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards

Jane Louise
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paul m Aficionado

paul m

Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
Posted

Storm discussion please!

No storms for you now!!!! Lol. Never seen 80% chance of storms for here in the 7 day forecast before. Still plenty of ups and downs to come though
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lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted

Yes STORMS are heading our way and the outlook is looking STORMY! Good for STORM lovers who like STORMS!

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

Haha that made ^^ me laugh. :clap:

Concerning tornadoes, they love empty expanses of land, and London is full of shooting skyscrapers and buildings. It wouldn't last long, if there was one, I've seen a few funnels pretty dire stuff compared to the USA.

Interesting 2006 London tornado F2 - http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_London_tornado

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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

A long way off but potential fireworks Friday night into Saturday, with loads of energy for a convergence zone to tap into across Wales the Midlands and Southeast England and East Anglia. As always with these secnarios, it generally goes down to the wire!!! :rofl:  :closedeyes:  :nonono:

 

Trough showing up on the fax charts now as well,spreading North during Friday.

 

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)

As often happens, some differences in the handling of destabilisation of the Spanish Plume later this week. GFS suggests a risk for organised destabilisation/storms Thursday night/Friday morning across much of S England and Wales as a shortwave trough pushes N/NE, with the threat transfering north across Midlands and N England during Friday. ECMWF, however, confines Thursday nights organised storm risk to far SW England, SW Wales and Ireland. The Euro model, does however, suggest a more widespread destabilisation form the south across S England, The Midlands and E Anglia, with organised storms spreading further north and northwest across England and Wales and S Scotland during Saturday.

 

Before then, falling heights with upper trough passing across northern Britain tomorrow, surface heating and a weakening cold front may be enough to trigger some heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday, the greatest threat across central areas, but the odd thundery showers can't be ruled out in the south towards the evening.

Edited by Nick F
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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

No matter how happy/frustrated people are, this is no doubt the event of the year so far coming up. With the 15c isotherm as far west as Western Wales and Cornwall, that indicates a more 'failsafe' synoptic for most of the country and reducing the risk greatly of missing out altogether. Someone somewhere is going to get one heck of a battering. Its down to nowcasting to see what exactly will be the case. But if you want to see some action or get close up to the centre of the storms, if you've got time to spare, have a storm chase and try to anticipate them instead of sitting at home reminiscing on what you may have possibly missed!! 

I can only dream of a formation of the storm that hit Dusseldorf, Cologne, Munster, Monchengladbach, Dortmund, Essen and pretty much all the Northwestern quarter of Germany on the 9th of June earlier this year! We would certainly all be happy then !! :) I wish everyone the very best and to make the most of this upcoming projected plume :D

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Friday in to sat could be a good opportunity for some night time lightning shots , got my cameras on charge ready for the fun and games !!....

Yes I'm going to chase should the opportunity present itself. Hope we get some evening and nighttime storms on Friday, and that they hold off a little during the day while I'm at work! :D

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Trough showing up on the fax charts now as well,spreading North during Friday.

 

Posted Imagefax60s.gif

note also not as many fronts on that chart as previously shown which means skies could be a lot clearer and therefore higher temperatures!!
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Mokidugway Maestro

Mokidugway

Posted
Posted

Yes I'm going to chase should the opportunity present itself. Hope we get some evening and nighttime storms on Friday, and that they hold off a little during the day while I'm at work! :D

geographically difficult for me to chase owing to living on a peninsula ,but high ground or the coast will be a good alternative !!....
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

No matter how happy/frustrated people are, this is no doubt the event of the year so far coming up. With the 15c isotherm as far west as Western Wales and Cornwall, that indicates a more 'failsafe' synoptic for most of the country and reducing the risk greatly of missing out altogether. Someone somewhere is going to get one heck of a battering. Its down to nowcasting to see what exactly will be the case. But if you want to see some action or get close up to the centre of the storms, if you've got time to spare, have a storm chase and try to anticipate them instead of sitting at home reminiscing on what you may have possibly missed!! 

I can only dream of a formation of the storm that hit Dusseldorf, Cologne, Munster, Monchengladbach, Dortmund, Essen and pretty much all the Northwestern quarter of Germany on the 9th of June earlier this year! We would certainly all be happy then !! :) I wish everyone the very best and to make the most of this upcoming projected plume :D

If the ECM came off, then maybe, just maybe we might import something huge from France, the steering winds are straight north. We could get the perfect scenario of a 33/34C maximum in the south east followed by a huge French import engulfing the south of the UK during the evening.

I'm probably only dreaming again  :rofl:

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted (edited)

The very best time for me to chase would be the 5pm Friday to 8pm Saturday time slot, if mother nature could organise me something for within these times than that would be great. If not, then an overhead storm anytime before or after will be fine too (although not Friday daytime please as I will be at work) :)

 

The GFS lightning wizard charts now coming into view for Thursday nights event and it does look on this model as if we get the very high CAPE values coinciding with some deep layer shear and helicity to bring the possibility of severe storms to the western half of the UK. However, worth noting that the ECM model takes all this further west. Even so, it is good not to see all the good stuff forecast to hit only the eastern side as this would then inevitably head into the continent. We are getting ever closer to a memorable stormy period folks.

Edited by Supacell
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Hirudine Community Regular

Hirudine

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham City Centre
  • Location: Birmingham City Centre
Posted

Thanks for the London tornado info, guys. Must admit I'm quite surprised at the rare but strong ones that have occurred, and I can't believe I don't remember the 2006 one! 

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poseidon Aficionado

poseidon

Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
Posted (edited)

Looks like the met office don't seem to rate Friday currently. However, they ramp things up to Sunday where we get thundergeddon.

Edited by poseidon
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lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted

Thanks for the London tornado info, guys. Must admit I'm quite surprised at the rare but strong ones that have occurred, and I can't believe I don't remember the 2006 one! 

I don't remember it either, apparently it made the national news!

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Dami Maestro

Dami

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
Posted

Wish I could get in a car and go chase, but i refuse to drive hubs car unless i really have to. I can barely touch the pedals.

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Dan the Man Contributor

Dan the Man

Posted
  • Location: Central Beds
  • Location: Central Beds
Posted

Just had a look at the jet forecast - don't think there's much shear available, so any tornadic potential in these storms look limited. Straight line winds only it seems.

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Wet'n'Dry Enthusiast

Wet'n'Dry

Posted
  • Location: Basildon
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Basildon
Posted

Do I really want more storms? Only had 3 belters this Saturday ...... hell yeah!! Bring it on  :yahoo:

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Chris101 Aficionado

Chris101

Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
Posted

ECM really limiting Thursday nights activity to the SW England and SW Wales and then a large destabilisation of the plume Friday night into Saturday for SE CS and Central England.

Do I really want more storms? Only had 3 belters this Saturday ...... hell yeah!! Bring it on  :yahoo:

Haha same here, but i could never say no to more.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

The very best time for me to chase would be the 5pm Friday to 8pm Saturday time slot, if mother nature could organise me something for within these times than that would be great. If not, then an overhead storm anytime before or after will be fine too (although not Friday daytime please as I will be at work) :)

 

The GFS lightning wizard charts now coming into view for Thursday nights event and it does look on this model as if we get the very high CAPE values coinciding with some deep layer shear and helicity to bring the possibility of severe storms to the western half of the UK. However, worth noting that the ECM model takes all this further west. Even so, it is good not to see all the good stuff forecast to hit only the eastern side as this would then inevitably head into the continent. We are getting ever closer to a memorable stormy period folks.

 

Same here. I trust your knowledge and geography is better than mine so I'd love to know your target areas nearer the time! :)

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

ECM really limiting Thursday nights activity to the SW England and SW Wales and then a large destabilisation of the plume Friday night into Saturday for SE CS and Central England.Haha same here, but i could never say no to more.

Friday night into Saturday better as I don't have to get up for work then :D
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MartinD Contributor

MartinD

Posted
  • Location: Worcester
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and tornadoes
  • Location: Worcester
Posted

Just a quick one and slightly..ish off topic, as were heading closer to the hopeful fun this Friday and Saturday i will hopefully be out on the road after just getting my car fixed, trying my best to capture the action on camera / video. problem is i had an i-phone before with a couple of great apps, i have now changed to the Android network, none of my apps work now so was wondering if anyone knows of any good rainfall radar, realtime lightning, storm chasing apps, amateur or professional, paid or free.

 

Hope someone can help and thank you in advance if you can.

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