Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards

[Speedway Slider]

The very best time for me to chase would be the 5pm Friday to 8pm Saturday time slot, if mother nature could organise me something for within these times than that would be great. If not, then an overhead storm anytime before or after will be fine too (although not Friday daytime please as I will be at work)

 

The GFS lightning wizard charts now coming into view for Thursday nights event and it does look on this model as if we get the very high CAPE values coinciding with some deep layer shear and helicity to bring the possibility of severe storms to the western half of the UK. However, worth noting that the ECM model takes all this further west. Even so, it is good not to see all the good stuff forecast to hit only the eastern side as this would then inevitably head into the continent. We are getting ever closer to a memorable stormy period folks.

GFS Lightning Wizard Charts???

 

Where can these be found please?

[poseidon]

Speedway Slider, on 15 Jul 2014 - 21:57, said:

GFS Lightning Wizard Charts???

 

Where can these be found please?

 

http://lightningwizard.com

[Speedway Slider]

Just a quick one and slightly..ish off topic, as were heading closer to the hopeful fun this Friday and Saturday i will hopefully be out on the road after just getting my car fixed, trying my best to capture the action on camera / video. problem is i had an i-phone before with a couple of great apps, i have now changed to the Android network, none of my apps work now so was wondering if anyone knows of any good rainfall radar, realtime lightning, storm chasing apps, amateur or professional, paid or free.

 

Hope someone can help and thank you in advance if you can.

Hi, I'm on Android, I have found (Blitzortung Lightning) to be very good and for rainfall radar I use (Rain Alarm) these are both free, and with rain alarmyou can change map backgrounds to either Google or terrain...

Hope this helps....

[MartinD]

Hi, I'm on Android, I have found (Blitzortung Lightning) to be very good and for rainfall radar I use (Rain Alarm) these are both free, and with rain alarmyou can change map backgrounds to either Google or terrain...

Hope this helps....

Thank you so much, i have downloaded the Blitzortung Lightning app and will download the rain alarm app now, going to miss the Home & Dry app on my i-phone, that was a fab app.

[Speedway Slider]

http://lightningwizard.com

Thanks!

Be helpful to us WEAM'S if there was a page with links to the better weather apps/programmes etc with brief synopsis on what they do and how to decipher the results/info....

 

(WEAM'S) = Weather Amateurs ..

[William Grimsley]

Can't wait for Thursday Night! Widespread thunderstorms! It will be interesting as I set off from here at around 05:00 on Friday and set sail from Plymouth around 07:00!

[lassie23]

Can't wait for Thursday Night! Widespread thunderstorms! It will be interesting as I set off from here at around 05:00 on Friday and set sail from Plymouth around 07:00!

Hopefully it doesn't get too squally or you might end up

[Costa Del Fal]

Can't wait for Thursday Night! Widespread thunderstorms! It will be interesting as I set off from here at around 05:00 on Friday and set sail from Plymouth around 07:00!

I wouldn't be so certain yet. I expectant changes still yet as it's only Tuesday!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

If the ECM came off, then maybe, just maybe we might import something huge from France, the steering winds are straight north. We could get the perfect scenario of a 33/34C maximum in the south east followed by a huge French import engulfing the south of the UK during the evening.

I'm probably only dreaming again 

We can only hope mate!

 

Also for this event, does anyone know what steering winds will be the most influential on these possible storms? Are we better off looking at the 500hpa steering winds or the 850hpa? 

Edited July 15, 2014 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[A.J]

We can only hope mate!

 

Also for this event, does anyone know what steering winds will be the most influential on these possible storms? Are we better off looking at the 500hpa steering winds or the 850hpa? 

300-500 hpa winds

[Supacell]

Same here. I trust your knowledge and geography is better than mine so I'd love to know your target areas nearer the time!

 

I will be sure to share my thoughts to likely chase areas

[Supacell]

Just a quick one and slightly..ish off topic, as were heading closer to the hopeful fun this Friday and Saturday i will hopefully be out on the road after just getting my car fixed, trying my best to capture the action on camera / video. problem is i had an i-phone before with a couple of great apps, i have now changed to the Android network, none of my apps work now so was wondering if anyone knows of any good rainfall radar, realtime lightning, storm chasing apps, amateur or professional, paid or free.

 

Hope someone can help and thank you in advance if you can.

 

I use netweather extra radar - it provides rainfall radar and lightning overlay with updates every 5 minutes.

[Love Snow]

Not getting excited yet spent years waiting for a good storm on this forum but only seen it go to plan once and that wasn't in my area very hard to predict but it's all part of the fun I suppose !

[MartinD]

I use netweather extra radar - it provides rainfall radar and lightning overlay with updates every 5 minutes.

Thank you so much for your advice.

[Hathers]

This event coming up looks like your classic 90s style all nighter storms. Well here's hoping anyway.

[poseidon]

WRF NMM12 for Friday:

 

 

 

[vladthemert]

Thanks for the London tornado info, guys. Must admit I'm quite surprised at the rare but strong ones that have occurred, and I can't believe I don't remember the 2006 one! 

 

aye been some really bad ones torro has earliest recorded 1091 Also included nasty earthquakes, storm surges life must been bad enough without these events.   Lincolnshire lost a lot land through tsunami would you believe it too it was revealed few weeks ago on the beeb.  Would be interested what weather patterns was in this dark unsettled nature events.  Are we getting to comparable today with temperature weather patterns those dark periods bad disasters.

 

I am looking forward to next few days but also worried, I hope no one hurt if it becomes bad.

[Ben Sainsbury]

If I must say GFS 18z shows a slight improvement in CAPE and Li's most especially for Saturday but a little on Friday too!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

300-500 hpa winds

Ah nice one

 

GFS is also quite a BIG upgrade. Literally a series of MCS's moving up from France. Saturday night would be a potential all nighter for Eastern Counties of England, with the West getting most of the action on Friday/Saturday. Awesome just about sums it up, although words are beginning to fail me 

Looking at things now, could this be the biggest event since 2005? I definitely think it could rival it. This looks very similar to alot of the 90's setups.

[Karl83]

 

Still a few days away, yes. But I wonder who will be closest?

 

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

By the latest GFS, I Don't really see much potential tomorrow, odd heavy shower Central/Eastern areas, Thursday has the potential for the odd thundery shower through southern counties, then Thursday night into Friday, a large group of thunderstorms/mcs moving from Western France up through Cornwall/Devon/Somerset/Dorset, some active thunderstorms pushing through Gloucestershire into the midlands; a few storms continuing into the night. Friday Night proves a lot larger potential with a series of thunderstorms moving into Dorset through to London, maybe not just one but maybe two or three bands of these, and then more homegrown widespread thunderstorms through Saturday mostly across Central and Eastern, maybe pushing into Eastern areas of the south west and wales. Sunday may prove another day for a few thundery showers across wales and southern counties, but these generally fairly localised, only my opinion however.

Tony Gilbert of ukweatherworld have produced this outlook for tomorrow, nothing too exciting: http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/104204-convective-outlook-weds-16th-july-2014/page__pid__906680#entry906680

Edited July 15, 2014 by Ben Sainsbury

[lassie23]

Just saw the Beeb forecast, some showers tomorrow over Beds and Bucks then the west gets showers Thursday, then Friday into Saturday London gets flooded along with the eastern side of England! Everyone gets something, can't complain!

[Captain Shortwave]

Ah nice one

 

GFS is also quite a BIG upgrade. Literally a series of MCS's moving up from France. Saturday night would be a potential all nighter for Eastern Counties of England, with the West getting most of the action on Friday/Saturday. Awesome just about sums it up, although words are beginning to fail me 

Looking at things now, could this be the biggest event since 2005? I definitely think it could rival it. This looks very similar to alot of the 90's setups.

One thing I do like is that the mid-level cape levels are well sustained during the night time periods (especially Friday night), so there is very chance of the big storms over France surviving the trip across the channel, of course if they head our way of course.

[vladthemert]

By the latest GFS, I Don't really see much potential tomorrow, odd heavy shower Central/Eastern areas, Thursday has the potential for the odd thundery shower through southern counties, then Thursday night into Friday, a large group of thunderstorms/mcs moving from Western France up through Cornwall/Devon/Somerset/Dorset, some active thunderstorms pushing through Gloucestershire into the midlands; a few storms continuing into the night. Friday Night proves a lot larger potential with a series of thunderstorms moving into Dorset through to London, maybe not just one but maybe two or three bands of these, and then more homegrown widespread thunderstorms through Saturday mostly across Central and Eastern, maybe pushing into Eastern areas of the south west and wales. Sunday may prove another day for a few thundery showers across wales and southern counties, but these generally fairly localised, only my opinion however.Tony Gilbert of ukweatherworld have produced this outlook for tomorrow, nothing too exciting: http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/104204-convective-outlook-weds-16th-july-2014/page__pid__906680#entry906680

 

Is that similar to last time when southerly winds pushed storms over from Le Havre area

Edited July 15, 2014 by vladthemert

[Cloud 10]

Latest fax chart for Saturday looks mouth watering with a trough lying down Eastern areas

and cold front in the West.

 

 

Something for everyone perhaps.

 

 

18z gfs dewpoints for saturday look very healthy.

 

Edited July 15, 2014 by Cloud 10