Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards

[Guest]

I know that the Netweather forecast is not the most accurate thing by any means, but my lord take a look at that! Hard not to get exited!

 

Loving the atmosphere in this thread at the moment, just hope we can be rewarded! I will certainly be out chasing Friday night and Saturday, good luck to all! 

Me too. I'm wanting the really good stuff to hold off until I finish on Friday. I can be home for 4:30 then so will re-evaluate and travel if necessary Catching up on this thread now lol

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

The exciting question is that will we see what I believe to be our 1st ever proper level 2 warning from estofex? I think the current charts warrant at least a level 2 IMO.

[A.J]

The exciting question is that will we see what I believe to be our 1st ever proper level 2 warning from estofex? I think the current charts warrant at least a level 2 IMO.

we've had level 2's before believe it or not

[Spikecollie]

We've just had some torrential showers here (already!) no electrical activity, but windscreen wipers on full and some lovely towering clouds...looking forward to the weekend if we get what could come, for once this year I can just stay at home and enjoy it...

[Chris101]

"Home grown thunderstorms" being specifically mentioned on our regional forecasts....despite the graphics clearly showing activity coming out of France...strange!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/da2

Thats probably because the plume is set to destabilise over the UK, it will more than likely start in France, but spread Northwards with more and more sferics breaking out along the line of the unstable plume, so theoretically the storms will be breaking out over the UK. (Hope that makes some sense) 

[NUT]

That band that came over us earlier seems to be producing strikes as it goes east across scotland

[Harry]

we've had level 2's before believe it or not

 

Have we had them for thunderstorms though? I can't recall ever seeing one.

 

I've seen them (I think) for excessive precipitation and wind gusts, but related to frontal rains/depressions rather than convection.

 

It would be a rare occasion I think either way and even the 'el brummo' event which was about as severe as it gets for the UK didn't attract a Lvl 2 (if I remember correctly).

 

If I recall the first attached chart was the estofex chart for El Brummo

 

The second chart was for the early hours of 23 July 2013, which brought some pretty awesome night time storms across S England (lasted for hours)...synoptics which were quite similar to that forecast this weekend - temps in the low 30s, dps of 18-20C, etc.

 

 

Edited July 16, 2014 by Harry

[richep]

I thought I previously heard that the storm risk was for Thursday night into Friday for the West Country? Does this still hold true and is the Friday night action going to be reserved for the eastern side of England. Sorry for twenty questions.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Have we had them for thunderstorms though? I can't recall ever seeing one.

 

I've seen them (I think) for excessive precipitation and wind gusts, but related to frontal rains/depressions rather than convection.

 

It would be a rare occasion I think either way and even the 'el brummo' event which was about as severe as it gets for the UK didn't attract a Lvl 2 (if I remember correctly).

Hence what I mean by 'proper' level 2. I know we had one for St Jude, but that was non-convective.

Ive never recalled seeing one from a summer plume event. The most we've had is level one whilst watching the low countries get their usual level 2's and 3's!

[Harry]

Hence what I mean by 'proper' level 2. I know we had one for St Jude, but that was non-convective.

Ive never recalled seeing one from a summer plume event. The most we've had is level one whilst watching the low countries get their usual level 2's and 3's!

 

Have posted above charts from two memorable plume events in the past couple of years - usually Lvl 1 affairs, especially for imports due to the propensity for storms to become elevated en route across the channel. 

[lassie23]

Having a barbecue  in London on Saturday afternoon!

Edited July 16, 2014 by lassie23

[A.J]

I'll have to have a troll through the estofex archives this evening re. level 2's.....there was one for 15/11/2009 for tornado's along the english channel

[Wivenswold]

I am sometimes amazed by questions like "will it rain here at lunchtime in 3 days' time?" on threads for weather fans. A minute or two of reading the comments here will reveal that the locations of storms/showers for tomorrow, let alone the weekend, is not set in stone. 

[Chris K]

I thought I previously heard that the storm risk was for Thursday night into Friday for the West Country? Does this still hold true and is the Friday night action going to be reserved for the eastern side of England. Sorry for twenty questions.

 

Not sure...Thursday night/Fridays potential thundery weather might actually be a little too far West for us...however until we start seeing things develop at the time it really is difficult to say where and when things may happen.

 

Friday night/Saturday there is a risk for most areas to be honest, with perhaps more emphasis on Eastern regions. However again it will depend on the fronts and surface troughs and where they situate themselves. Cells could explode from nowhere, so it will be a live skies & radar watch in my opinion.

Edited July 16, 2014 by Chris K

[weatherobsuk]

I'm a bit of a party pooper myself, but i'm hoping for the Pennines that the worst of the storms skew east or west by a few miles. Being a photographer in a ideal location makes it easy for me to head 1 minute out up on a hill and have a near-uninterrupted 360' horizon. Fun for photographing IC and anvil crawlers without the need for being in the storm itself.

[StormChaseUK]

I am sometimes amazed by questions like "will it rain here at lunchtime in 3 days' time?" on threads for weather fans. A minute or two of reading the comments here will reveal that the locations of storms/showers for tomorrow, let alone the weekend, is not set in stone. 

Yes me too, it is the bain of forums .  "If my cat is standing on one leg, on tuesday at 3.30pm in the garden, what chance will I have of seeing lightning the following hour, if I return from Tesco 5 minutes early?, please let me know!!! I need to know !!!"  

[Guest]

I'm a bit of a party pooper myself, but i'm hoping for the Pennines that the worst of the storms skew east or west by a few miles. Being a photographer in a ideal location makes it easy for me to head 1 minute out up on a hill and have a near-uninterrupted 360' horizon. Fun for photographing IC and anvil crawlers without the need for being in the storm itself.

Yeah if there is a nice active storm Friday night I'll head up to the nearby Surprise View, which is the best view (especially in terms of low light pollution) around here.

[Mapantz]

Have we had them for thunderstorms though? I can't recall ever seeing one. I've seen them (I think) for excessive precipitation and wind gusts, but related to frontal rains/depressions rather than convection. It would be a rare occasion I think either way and even the 'el brummo' event which was about as severe as it gets for the UK didn't attract a Lvl 2 (if I remember correctly). If I recall the first attached chart was the estofex chart for El Brummo The second chart was for the early hours of 23 July 2013, which brought some pretty awesome night time storms across S England (lasted for hours)...synoptics which were quite similar to that forecast this weekend - temps in the low 30s, dps of 18-20C, etc.

I still managed to miss out on all that.

[A.J]

Yes me too, it is the bain of forums .  "If my cat is standing on one leg, on tuesday at 3.30pm in the garden, what chance will I have of seeing lightning the following hour, if I return from Tesco 5 minutes early?, please let me know!!! I need to know !!!"  

If your cat's standing on one leg then hi-res modelling suggests possible thunderstorms, but if you're more than 5 mins early coming back from Tesco, then forget it, it aint happening 

[lassie23]

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx

[Mokidugway]

Could be quite interesting at the open golf tournament !!....

[ChezWeather]

Never realised that there was an archive on Estofex so the last 30 minutes have been well spent!

 

Here is a Level 2 for parts of the UK from way back in June 2007 

Edited July 16, 2014 by ChezWeather

[Staffordshire]

Not excited about prospects for me here, don't seems to be greatly positioned and I am in work all day Saturday

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I'm free now til midday sat - located in sunny and humid Surrey - then sat evening we're in bath / Bristol for (haha) a BBQ...

So hoping for storms in the central southern counties thurs Friday night(s) and then for things to progress more westerly for Saturday...

There's a chance I can stay in the east Saturday afternoon / night if things get going on the east side.

I DON'T KNOW WHERE TO BE! HELLLP!

:-D

[ChezWeather]

Yeah if there is a nice active storm Friday night I'll head up to the nearby Surprise View, which is the best view (especially in terms of low light pollution) around here.

Some great vantage points just west of here, Crich stand and Ashover rock being 2 of the best, can see for miles from there!

 

Lincoln, Derby, Nottingham all visible from the top of Ashover.