Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards

[Mokidugway]

Kirkby moor on the Furness peninsula will be my choice ,300 metres elevation and a good view of the sea to watch it arrive !!...

[Cloud 10]

New fax chart for Saturday moves the trough and front slightly further West.

 

 

Some lightning around over parts of Eastern Scotland at the moment as well.

 

 

 

[Richard Taylor]

Aberdeen has a thunderstorm presently - not particularly intense though.

[Bluebreezer54]

Looks alright, but the snow risk is a bit disappointing.

Now that did actually make me laugh out loud LG

[Weather-history]

Some altocumulus castellanus this morning gave heavy drops of rain

[sendandreturn]

I'm free now til midday sat - located in sunny and humid Surrey - then sat evening we're in bath / Bristol for (haha) a BBQ...So hoping for storms in the central southern counties thurs Friday night(s) and then for things to progress more westerly for Saturday...There's a chance I can stay in the east Saturday afternoon / night if things get going on the east side.I DON'T KNOW WHERE TO BE! HELLLP!:-D

 

I am in Hampshire, be out as well. Quite tempted by Butser Hill near Portsmouth

[Karl83]

Never realised that there was an archive on Estofex so the last 30 minutes have been well spent!

 

Here is a Level 2 for parts of the UK from way back in June 2007 

That is absolutely awesome you found that archive. That day brought me one of the best storms I have ever seen. Witnessed 2 trees struck by lightning, one of which caught fire. Numerous amounts of crawler lightning.

 

Until last year, that was the last time I had a decent storm. Thanks for posting!

 

EDIT: Video I found on Youtube from Bristol - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EbH1IMb9AA

Edited July 16, 2014 by Karl83

[Harry]

Never realised that there was an archive on Estofex so the last 30 minutes have been well spent! Here is a Level 2 for parts of the UK from way back in June 2007

Oh well done, I don't remember that great find

[Guest]

Some great vantage points just west of here, Crich stand and Ashover rock being 2 of the best, can see for miles from there!

 

Lincoln, Derby, Nottingham all visible from the top of Ashover. 

Thanks for that advice, just in case the best stuff is a little further SE! I have a really good feeling about Fri/Sat though. The potential is immense!

[sendandreturn]

From experience, anyone know of tried and tested vantage points in Wiltshire/Dorset/Hamps/W Sussex/Surrey

 

Already know Portsdown, Butser Hill...it's more to the West I need..

 

thanks,.

[A.J]

From experience, anyone know of tried and tested vantage points in Wiltshire/Dorset/Hamps/W Sussex/Surrey

 

Already know Portsdown, Butser Hill...it's more to the West I need..

 

thanks,.

Barbury Castle, nr Marlborough, on the Marlborough Downs, 360 degree viewing with no obstructions as it's about 800ft asl....I'll be up there tomorrow night for sure

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Next Wednesday looks like a day with pretty good potential for storms as well as this weekend. It looks as if its more central and western areas which will see the fair share of this potential outbreak but the east and Southeast are not ruled out as temperatures are still forecast to be in the mid-high twenties widely.

 

 

Maybe a chance of some night-time light displays as the energy seems to last into late evening which means the Opening Ceremony of the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow may get more than they bargained for.

 

To be honest, anywhere could see a storm or two next week because with temperatures that high, there is a fair chance.

 

 

As always, there is uncertainty which means next week could be completely different as well as this weekend could be severe or not as severe as everyone is hoping.

 

 

[Mapantz]

I know it won't stay like this but somewhere is going to get deluged during Saturday..

[The PIT]

Interesting but not excited yet. Expect to the west of here will get all the action Friday and on Saturday I'll be able to watch the huge clouds to the east of me delivering the action while I sit under drizzle.

[Derbyshire_snow]

Thanks for that advice, just in case the best stuff is a little further SE! I have a really good feeling about Fri/Sat though. The potential is immense!

Owler Bar an the surrounding Hills are 5 mins from us in Dronfield great views from there.

[Supacell]

The weather over the coming few days is my absolute favorite type of weather. The GFS charts are mouthwatering with shear, helicity, high CAPE values through all levels of the profile and plumes of moisture and humidity all coming together. The timing and exact location are still open to doubt though. I just hope that somewhere in the UK sees something special even if not on my own front door.

 

First real interest for me comes tomorrow evening/night from around 9pm onwards. GFS shows thunderstorms moving into the SW (west of IOW) during the evening and then spreading NNW across all of SW England, S Wales and the S+W Midlands overnight. Not much being made of this threat on BBC forecasts, and Euro 4 doesn't really pick up on it. However, the GFS brings the risk of supercells into the SW by midnight along with hail of 4-6cm in diameter showing on the Estofex storm charts (which are based around the GFS model). The severe weather risk tails off the further north the storms move but I should imagine lightning activity would be quite abundant with high levels of MLCAPE.

 

Helicity and supercell parameter for midnight Thurs/Fri:

 

 

K-Index is higher than I have seen it at any point so far this year in the UK along with some very heavy rainfall:

 

 

MUCAPE of over 1000j/kg in the SW at midnight.

 

 

As I say this weakens as it moves north but the first bite of the convective cherry looks quite impressive on GFS. 

 

Friday looks like a drier day for most as a ridge of high pressure moves in although there will still likely be some rumbles as the overnight storms weaken and trundle NW to Western Scotland. There is a lot of CAPE build up across England but I don't think this produce any more than an isolated storm if and where the cap breaks. However, over Friday night and Saturday all that pent up heat and energy could create some massive storms as the plume then destabilizes from the south. Lightning wizard has some very severe storms for 12noon on Saturday across Central England which is as far as it goes.

 

Clearly there is still room for changes, however big or small, but we are now not far off 24 hours away from possibly the first storms ahead of what could be a very memorable 48-72 hours.

 

 

 

 

 

[Harry]

The weather over the coming few days is my absolute favorite type of weather. The GFS charts are mouthwatering with shear, helicity, high CAPE values through all levels of the profile and plumes of moisture and humidity all coming together. The timing and exact location are still open to doubt though. I just hope that somewhere in the UK sees something special even if not on my own front door.

 

First real interest for me comes tomorrow evening/night from around 9pm onwards. GFS shows thunderstorms moving into the SW (west of IOW) during the evening and then spreading NNW across all of SW England, S Wales and the S+W Midlands overnight. Not much being made of this threat on BBC forecasts, and Euro 4 doesn't really pick up on it. However, the GFS brings the risk of supercells into the SW by midnight along with hail of 4-6cm in diameter showing on the Estofex storm charts (which are based around the GFS model). The severe weather risk tails off the further north the storms move but I should imagine lightning activity would be quite abundant with high levels of MLCAPE.

 

Helicity and supercell parameter for midnight Thurs/Fri:

 

gfs_srh_eur36.png

 

K-Index is higher than I have seen it at any point so far this year in the UK along with some very heavy rainfall:

 

gfs_kili_eur36.png

 

MUCAPE of over 1000j/kg in the SW at midnight.

 

gfs_mucape_eur36.png

 

As I say this weakens as it moves north but the first bite of the convective cherry looks quite impressive on GFS. 

 

Friday looks like a drier day for most as a ridge of high pressure moves in although there will still likely be some rumbles as the overnight storms weaken and trundle NW to Western Scotland. There is a lot of CAPE build up across England but I don't think this produce any more than an isolated storm if and where the cap breaks. However, over Friday night and Saturday all that pent up heat and energy could create some massive storms as the plume then destabilizes from the south. Lightning wizard has some very severe storms for 12noon on Saturday across Central England which is as far as it goes.

 

Clearly there is still room for changes, however big or small, but we are now not far off 24 hours away from possibly the first storms ahead of what could be a very memorable 48-72 hours.

Nicely and succinctly put...very memorable I'm hoping for too!!

[ztam]

Camera Charged , full tank of fuel... Fingers crossed for the isle of wight

[Guest]

Owler Bar an the surrounding Hills are 5 mins from us in Dronfield great views from there.

Yeah that's generally where I head Some fantastic views to be had

[sparky1972]

fingers crossed for all the storm lovers that we get to see something quite spectacular over the weekend

[Rammie]

I was sort of expecting the temps to rise for Thurs, and peak on Fri. But this evening, both BBC and Met seem to have 26 for Thurs and 23 for Fri.

 

No, or very little, sun here today in North Somerset. Would have got warm if it had broken through.

Going back to Northants on Fri eve for the weekend. May see something, but seriously doubt it. Shield should work as normal.

[stevofunnelcl]

'Supercells in the SW by midnight'

 

What do you think this is? Kansas?

I'm starting to feel excited at the potential of the coming days.

 

Right now, the only hot plumes i'm feeling, is when i open my oven door, as i have oven chips & fish fingers cooking

[Candice]

Thoughts from the Chief Forecaster at SkyWarn UK

Typically the month for the strongest cells, with severity depending largely on the jetstream pattern, this July isn't going to disappoint.

Overnight Thurs into Fri the leading edge of the plume overspreads the majority of the UK, with widespread destabilisation up the Wrn side of the mainland through to NI and Wrn Scotland in the morning. This EML will heavily cap the lowest layers, but despite very high bases the high CAPE values and dry air could allow for some decent hail sizes, copious sferics and torrential rain. Hail less certain than precip risk, and precip risk dependent on storm motion which for the time being looks swift enough that we shouldn't see a flooding risk from this portion of the synoptic scenario.

Thereafter, from around 13z Fri onwards, a build up of high SBCAPE occurs across the mainland as the EML fosters higher temps in what is a very moist column. Easily beating 2000J/Kg, though higher than that is questionable given cloud cover. Models aren't on agreement for a precip signal (surprise!), with the HIRLAM not seeing anything through Fri, Meteociel's WRF opening up the Mids, etc. The environment will be in place for a very severe risk though, with large hail and very heavy precip cores the main risks for any updrafts regardless of how long they last. Shear is meagre at first but gets better through the weekend, and it should be noted that even if spot locations don't appear to have good shear there will be sufficient mass ascent being north of the jet nose and mid-upper level shear for slight tilting of updrafts in what is a high instability environment. Organisation in the lowest 3km will depend largely upon surface shortwaves for focussing of instability and veering winds up the column, and this will likely drive the Warning detail.

One thing to note, for this plume we shouldn't see the kind of upper level winds that would usually smear rising parcels into a high grey haze. Unless it does that over central France and advects northward.

[legritter]

Evening all ,just spent the day sorting out family matters ,i,v just had a look at all the charts and spent a good while talking to my neighbour who works for a large construction company ,the Met office as given some information to this company that the weather fri/ sat could be extremely severe ,so go carefull what you wish for ,yes its great when we get a severe storm but some people could get that word severe flood which if it happens is about as bad as life can get ,lets hope that many receive fantastic lightning but the rest is spread over the country ,there is some very cold air aloft and with the sun just past its strongest the potential for real fireworks ,tomorrows Fax charts will be very interesting im off to crack open a STella  cheers to all and lets hope many see some action [theres action and hell ]but what will be will be ,cheers ,

[Cloud 10]

Some impressively high dew-points for Saturday,widely between 19-21c.

 

 

Gonna be a tad sweaty!