Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards

[Chris K]

I'll be driving from Shrewsbury back down home to Bristol Lunchtime Saturday...could be interesting if developments aren't too far east...

Just saw the latest GFS run...

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

And here is the butterfly responsible for all this craziness...

[Karl83]

I'll be driving from Shrewsbury back down home to Bristol Lunchtime Saturday...could be interesting if developments aren't too far east...

Just saw the latest GFS run...

download (1).jpg

We can almost get excited! Almost!

[TwisterGirl81]

We'll I've just seen the bbc weather and it looks like Friday night event is too far west of the southwest and Saturday it is too Far East and as always the midlands and south east look to get the severe thunderstorms....now I won't feel too bad about working Saturday afternoon but I am a little disappointed but you get used to it as that is the way it mostly goes, it's like thunderstorm alley in the midlands and southeast lol

Edited July 16, 2014 by TwisterGirl81

[shaky]

Oh my days take a look at the latest 18z nmm!!cape values further west on friday night and more across the centre of england and also friday and saturday temps have been upgraded especially for central and eastern england!!32 degrees maybe across south east england and east anglia and maybe even 30 degrees in the east midlands on saturday!!take a look you will wet yourself!!lol

[Geordiesnow]

We'll I've just seen the bbc weather and it looks like Friday night event is too far west of the southwest and Saturday it is too Far East and as always the midlands and south east look to get the severe thunderstorms....now I won't feel too bad about working Saturday afternoon but I am a little disappointed but you get used to it as that is the way it mostly goes, it's like thunderstorm alley in the midlands and southeast lol

 

I certainly would not take any forecast too literally and get too excited/downhearted whether there is a blob of blue/green over your location or not. 

 

The forecasts do look impressive but there was another event this summer which turned out to be a bit of a damp squib(in this area anyways) quite literally so I won't be getting too carried away. Still looks very uncertain how it will all play out so I certainly got sympathy for the forecasters for sure. 

[Speedway Slider]

I am getting distinctly shaky over this now............. I really don't want to be about if this all kicks off.. Where's the best place to be on Saturday to AVOID all this? If its possible???:

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I am getting distinctly shaky over this now............. I really don't want to be about if this all kicks off.. Where's the best place to be on Saturday to AVOID all this? If its possible???:

Anywhere I am

Anywhere I am

...Or Sheffield

[Panayiotis]

I am getting distinctly shaky over this now............. I really don't want to be about if this all kicks off.. Where's the best place to be on Saturday to AVOID all this? If its possible???:

hmmmm, best place? I would say Greenland......

Edited July 16, 2014 by Panayiotis

[paul m]

Anywhere I am...Or Sheffield

Oi Sheffield is going to do well out of this and us further up In Leeds.....I can but dream lol

[TwisterGirl81]

I certainly would not take any forecast too literally and get too excited/downhearted whether there is a blob of blue/green over your location or not. The forecasts do look impressive but there was another event this summer which turned out to be a bit of a damp squib(in this area anyways) quite literally so I won't be getting too carried away. Still looks very uncertain how it will all play out so I certainly got sympathy for the forecasters for sure.

I guess so, it's just time and time again the severe thunderstorms are nearly always in the same general areas.....Let's hope it upgrades even more and we all see cracking thunderstorms....i'd rather it miss us completely than just skim Devon but all the energy and the heat are in the southeast although it has been very muggy here

[Wilxy]

still not 100% where to chase hopefully not miles but im getting excited now with big potential coming up

[Andy Pepler]

i have friends at the larmer tree festival in dorset with a lot of pro sound kit..the site is on the hill....do you think its worth me giveing them a heads up ??

[lassie23]

I think Lincolnshire will do well for storms on Saturday!

[Costa Del Fal]

I am getting distinctly shaky over this now............. I really don't want to be about if this all kicks off.. Where's the best place to be on Saturday to AVOID all this? If its possible???:

Probably this forum for starters lol.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Quite a modest change in the positioning of the rain on Saturday. Seems to be a lot more west to affect more of England and especially SW Scotland (which is a VERY good thing  ).

 

 

The IOM might not exist if this comes off!!

[paul m]

I think Lincolnshire will do well for storms on Saturday!

@$## off they have had their share

Edited July 16, 2014 by paul m

[Snowshine]

I can only wish for the charts below to be the outcome for Saturday, however after previous downgrades to storms this year, I have little hope in the storms being as extreme as forecast models currently show.

 

 

[lassie23]

@$## off they have had their share

I agree! Hope they get DRIZZLE! :p

[ChezWeather]

This is looking to be a great event! huge amounts of cape on the latest GFS runs and as mentioned, other ingredients will be in place to.

 

Feeling very optimistic as always! 

Edited July 16, 2014 by ChezWeather

[Wivenswold]

i have friends at the larmer tree festival in dorset with a lot of pro sound kit..the site is on the hill....do you think its worth me giveing them a heads up ??

 

I know the site well. It's mainly the camping area that's exposed, the stages are next to high trees. I'd hope they have some form of lightning detection. 

 

Worth a mention but I suspect it being a professional festival things will be in hand.

[Mapantz]

Please..

[ChezWeather]

I'd certainly think twice about any camping whatsoever. Not trying to be a spoil sport, this could bring with it potentially gusty conditions too.

I had arranged a weekend carp fishing, soon changed my mind, cant think of any place id less rather be than next to a lake during a setup like this.

 

So iv decided to try and drive into the storms instead! 

Edited July 17, 2014 by ChezWeather

[saint]

BBC forecasts already mentioning potentially severe and disruptive thunderstorms on Friday evening... Not often you hear that!

[Convective]

Quite a modest change in the positioning of the rain on Saturday. Seems to be a lot more west to affect more of England and especially SW Scotland (which is a VERY good thing  ).

 

ukprec.pngukprec (2).png

 

The IOM might not exist if this comes off!!

 

Dear God! I knew I should have started swimming for safety this evening whilst the sea was calm!

 

I don't really know what to expect 

 

EDIT: Beautiful paragraphs from Estofex as mentioned below by Sean19

 

Western Europe

A well-developed short-wave trough travels across the Bay of Biscay to the British Isles. Ahead of this trough, a plume of well mixed and very warm air originating from the Atlas mountains will spread northward, reaching the southern British Isles late in the period. At lower levels, moisture will increase in the warm air advection regime from northern France to the southern British Isles. This will result in increasing instability with MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg over northern France. Moisture will be weaker over southern France what results in 

smaller CAPE and a quite strong capping inversion.

Due to strongest large scale lift ahead of the approaching trough and near a cold front that enters the area from the west, storms are forecast across the central Bay of Biscay during the day that will spread northward in the afternoon and evening. Due to strong vertical wind shear below a low-level jet ahead of the cold front, storms will merge to a broad MCS that moves into the southern British Isles during the evening and night hours. The main threat will be severe winds along the leading gust front. Large or even very large hail is forecast especially with more discrete cells over France, but is also not ruled out with the MCS that enters the British Isles. Excessive rain is not too likely as the system moves northward quickly. Moreover, tornadoes may be possible given the strong low-level vertical wind shear. The main limiting factor is the weak buoyancy of the boundary layer over the British Isles.

Edited July 17, 2014 by Convective