Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards

[Daniel*]

The graphics for Friday looks very promising a clump of heavy PPN coming up from the continent. Possible MCS? it is looking up, I must say...

Was at Ashford for shopping - and the storm was insane, the rain the heavest rain I've seen in my life... Torrents of rain no thunder but the clouds extremely, disturbed looking.

[Captain Shortwave]

Here are some images of the cell that passed by - only saw one lightning flash, just distant thunder, very sporadic. Case of more interesting structure than content, I think. Very warm and humid, I think today was supposed to happen yesterday (I knew I might have to eat my words after my previous 'rant' post!) Torrential rain after the last cell clipped this location, the odd puddle left over from previous rain transformed into huge lakes on the roads which were practically covered in water. Beginning to rain again as the grey  overcast clears from these storms.

Drove through this whilst it was still developing. My journey along the A12 towards south Essex slowed dramatically with some very intense rain, though I didn't notice any thunder whilst driving through it.

[Harry]

The graphics for Friday looks very promising a clump of heavy PPN coming up from the continent. Possible MCS? it is looking up, I must say...Was at Ashford for shopping - and the storm was insane, the rain the heavest rain I've seen in my life... Torrents of rain no thunder but the clouds extremely, disturbed looking.

I was there too...unfortunately, I left at 3pm was very hot and humid!!Looking forward to later this week

[Daniel*]

I was there too...unfortunately, I left at 3pm was very hot and humid!!Looking forward to later this week

Oh shame you missed it by 1 and a 1/2 hours, you sure would have noticed it, if you was there looking back on the radar it looked like it turned into a supercell. Purple and white echoes, through quite a large swathe. It did have some movement to it, I've seen some heavy rain but that outdoes all. Likewise not been great for London & SE as of yet. As ever try not to get carried away

[Convective]

Thursday into Friday looks pretty good so far for another dose of elevated thunderstorms breaking out as a mass of energy floods in from the south. BBC already going with "fierce thunderstorms". Could be some monsters developing through the early hours of Friday that will move northwards throughout the day before more uncertainty on Saturday and Sunday. Although everything looks stunning at the moment its still a fragile situation and nothing, at this range, should be taken as a final answer on what will happen. An eastward shift on the current synoptics could give a covering of CAPE values up and above 2000j/kg, which combined with forecast temperatures of anything up to 30°C could produce some incredible displays.

[paul m]

As we should all know by now we need all the ingredients to get Mother Natures storm cooking pot working......

[lassie23]

30C in London is uncomfortable, hope those storms arrive and then things cool off as forecast, next weekend!

Edited July 14, 2014 by lassie23

[paul m]

30C in London is uncomfortable, hope those storms arrive and then things cool off as forecast, next weekend!

Oi Jog on they are gonna bypass the sarf n hit ooop north....OK OK LINCS...

[lassie23]

Oi Jog on they are gonna bypass the sarf n hit ooop north....OK OK LINCS...

Unusual for Lincolnshire to get storms!

[paul m]

Unusual for Lincolnshire to get storms!

You got that right  I hope that everyone does well out of this set up... 

[lassie23]

You got that right  I hope that everyone does well out of this set up... 

It's probably thundering in Lincolnshire  now!

[Speedway Slider]

There seems to be a lot of enthusiasm for this event, unusually early....... Is it that much cut and dried with a good 96+ hrs to the event....?

[NUT]

There seems to be a lot of enthusiasm for this event, unusually early....... Is it that much cut and dried with a good 96+ hrs to the event....?

It's not often that it looks this good to be truthful (Of course there will be chops and changes always is in these situations) the heat and humidity though that's coming are seemingly a bonus to keep things going though I would think

Edited July 14, 2014 by NUT

[alibabba]

Just like to confirm it's not thundering here in lincs at the minute lol lovely sunshine but bring on Friday !

[SimonP]

There seems to be a lot of enthusiasm for this event, unusually early....... Is it that much cut and dried with a good 96+ hrs to the event....

 

Possibly because the Met Office are themselves already mentioning it in their forecasts, therefore as are the BBC. 

[Cloud 10]

There seems to be a lot of enthusiasm for this event, unusually early....... Is it that much cut and dried with a good 96+ hrs to the event....?

 

Its all about the anticipation....

 

 

....and then the recriminations and gnashing of teeth when sod-all happens.

[Chris K]

Possibly because the Met Office are themselves already mentioning it in their forecasts, therefore as are the BBC. 

 

True, but I am probably not the only one thinking that it tends to be a little overhyped at this range...

 

I am a bit nervous about the tilt and proximity of the trough moving in from our West. This could interrupt the Northward movement of any potential thundery developments from our South. To me, the models seemingly want to edge this a bit closer to the UK, resulting in the highest temperatures getting increasingly reserved for the SE and pushing any developments from our South to head more NE along the Channel, rather than Northwards across a chunk of England.

 

This means we end up relying more on surface developments during Friday and Saturday, rather than anything pushing up from the South Thursday night. Not necessarily a bad thing though, as long as we don't end up with any leftover MCS muck!

 

Anyway... interesting model watching to see how they handle this. I have a gut feeling of what will happen, based purely on watching the models handle set ups like this in the past. I won't bother say it!

[Lauren]

Well excuse me for being pessimistic, but I'm not holding my breath. I've far too often seen setups like that on the day and sod all has happened, let alone this far out.

[Dami]

Well excuse me for being pessimistic, but I'm not holding my breath. I've far too often seen setups like that on the day and sod all has happened, let alone this far out.

I'm sitting on your side of the fence on this one. So many disappointments so i'm going to take each update and down grade as it comes...

[Mapantz]

I feel as though I'll be in the right place again, especially for activity pushing up from France. MLCAPE looks great for an elevated display.

[Harry]

What makes this a better scenario than what we've had so far this year is that it looks to be closer to a classic spanish plume scenario. Some of the air advecting north will be emanating from Iberia, meaning a readily unstable and quite explosive mix.

 

The GFS wind flow forecast charts show numerous areas of convergence/divergence areas which will assist in thunderstorm development, then there'll be falling pressure with the FAX chart point towards a developing Low complete with fronts later in the week.

 

There will be heat, moisture, dewpoints pushing around 18-20C on occasions, increasing lapse rates, some jet stream activity Friday into Saturday...in my view, current charts are looking very promising.

 

What is apparent is that, as ever for the UK, its a very complex and changeable looking scenario - there'll be developing Low, decaying and strengthening fronts, potential for MCSs, short lived CZs, troughs, some potentially very unstable spanish plume air intermixed with less impressive atlantic and continental air (so who gets the best of the instability at any given time open to change).

 

But, what appears probable is that there will be thunderstorms with some potential for one or two severe, perhaps an MCS...as to who, what, where, the forecasters I should think will be very much kept on their toes...it does not look an easy forecast period to me.

Edited July 14, 2014 by Harry

[Chris101]

Happy just to see another plume set up in the models, it means i get another week of good model watching to see how it all pans out. Fortunately i'm not one of the many that thinks because they see and hear that thunderstorms are forecast across the UK that its nailed on that they will get one, then start throwing their toys when they get nothing and others are getting hammered just 50 miles from them. One thing i can guarantee is that if there is a plume breakdown at the end of the week, not everyone in France will see a storm, not everyone in Benelux will see a storm, Holland or Germany either, and if it does evolve that the breakdown does come right across the UK then i'm afraid to say that even if it comes right across your region theres still a good chance you'll see nothing because thats the way storm cells work, they have large gaps between them. 

So before some of you start getting all over excited and telling all your friends the storms are coming, take a reality check, watch the models and listen to the knowledgeable thoughts of people on here and learn how these situations work.

So heres to a great week of upcoming model watching and best of luck to you all

[Mapantz]

I've put banners up on the local roundabouts saying "storms are coming"

Edited July 14, 2014 by Mapantz

[NUT]

I've put banners up on the local roundabouts saying "storms are coming"

You deserve nothing doing that

In all seriousness it's a very interesting and complex scenario developing. Is everybody going to get storms? Hell no. Will some places get clobbered? Possibly. It's a case of watching the skies and seeing how it all develops. Some night storms might be interesting (again if they materialise)

[Cloud 10]

What makes this a better scenario than what we've had so far this year is that it looks to be closer to a classic spanish plume scenario. Some of the air advecting north will be emanating from Iberia, meaning a readily unstable and quite explosive mix.

 

The GFS wind flow forecast charts show numerous areas of convergence/divergence areas which will assist in thunderstorm development, then there'll be falling pressure with the FAX chart point towards a developing Low complete with fronts later in the week.

 

There will be heat, moisture, dewpoints pushing around 18-20C on occasions, increasing lapse rates, some jet stream activity Friday into Saturday...in my view, current charts are looking very promising.

 

What is apparent is that, as ever for the UK, its a very complex and changeable looking scenario - there'll be developing Low, decaying and strengthening fronts, potential for MCSs, short lived CZs, troughs, some potentially very unstable spanish plume air intermixed with less impressive atlantic and continental air (so who gets the best of the instability at any given time open to change).

 

But, what appears probable is that there will be thunderstorms with some potential for one or two severe, perhaps an MCS...as to who, what, where, the forecasters I should think will be very much kept on their toes...it does not look an easy forecast period to me.