iceland Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

[john pike]

certainly active tonight and the quake at 1.10 to nearly 1.12 looks like a triple quake

 

http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/

 

activity is higher at the dike tonight as you can see additional fountains now too

 

http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/

[john pike]

Geothermal heat continues to increase in Bárðarbunga. Scientists on a surveillance flight above the volcano yesterday could clearly see cauldrons that had formed in the glacier on the western and southeastern rim of the caldera, ruv.is reports.

The largest cauldron has deepened by 25 meters (82 feet) in one month. Scientists link this development to the subsidence of the caldera, which now measures 40 meters. The subsidence cannot be detected with the naked eye as the caldera is 8 km wide.

 

http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/10/29/more-earthquakes-bardarbunga-heat-increases

 

i posted this earlier but thought i would add this again

 

cauldrons forming on the west and south east rim of the caldera

 

what happens next is hard to call but i feel this is far from finished

[jonboy]

All very shallow including a 4.5 at only 0.5 km

Thursday

30.10.2014 02:08:00 64.670 -17.390 1.1 km 3.8 50.5 7.3 km ENE of Bárðarbunga

Thursday

30.10.2014 05:03:49 64.673 -17.418 1.1 km 3.5 99.0 6.4 km NE of Bárðarbunga

Thursday

30.10.2014 05:23:16 64.667 -17.370 0.5 km 4.5 99.0 8.1 km ENE of Bárðarbunga

the quake at 2.08 is now upgraded

Thursday

30.10.2014 02:08:00 64.677 -17.437 2.4 km 4.3 99.0 5.9 km NE of Bárðarbunga

Edited October 30, 2014 by jonboy

[jonboy]

Another fairly shallow one at 4km and fair size at 4.6

Thursday

30.10.2014 09:43:59 64.669 -17.446 4.0 km 4.6 99.0 5.0 km NE of Bárðarbunga

lot of uplift ongoing on the GPS at present as well

[jonboy]

Thursday

30.10.2014 12:44:18 64.675 -17.483 4.6 km 3.8 99.0 4.4 km NNE of Bárðarbunga

The uplift has now stopped and levelled of would expect a drop later if recent pattern is followed

[john pike]

M 4.1 - ICELAND - 2014-10-30 19:21:51 UTC

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=406384

 

waiting imo

 

 

Thursday
30.10.2014 19:21:50 64.673 -17.439 4.3 km 4.6 99.0 5.6 km NE of Bárðarbunga Edited October 30, 2014 by john pike

[john pike]

Friday
31.10.2014 01:30:39 64.580 -17.300 1.1 km 4.9 50.5 12.8 km ESE of Bárðarbunga

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/#view=table

 

have to wait for tomorrow on that now

 

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/seismologist.php

probably be 5-5.3

 

 

Edited October 31, 2014 by john pike

[cyclonic happiness]

So, I'm going to ask maybe a stupid question as a lay person, so forgive me.

 

Are you hinting at the whole caldera might be about to blow?   Like a super eruption?

[jonboy]

1.30 quake confirmed as 5.3 at just over 2km

Friday

31.10.2014 01:30:39 64.618 -17.429 2.3 km 5.3 99.0 5.3 km ESE of Bárðarbunga

And a couple of others since

Friday

31.10.2014 07:20:21 64.673 -17.408 8.5 km 3.9 99.0 6.7 km ENE of Bárðarbunga

Friday

31.10.2014 08:03:52 64.673 -17.443 2.6 km 4.4 99.0 5.4 km NE of Bárðarbunga

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

So, I'm going to ask maybe a stupid question as a lay person, so forgive me.

 

Are you hinting at the whole caldera might be about to blow?   Like a super eruption?

 

I also am not an expert, but I have been watching this eruption closely since the end of August.

The take on this is that three possible scenarios exist for this event

1) It carries on as is and gradually fizzles out (make take several months or years)

2) The eastern side of the main caldera is being put under pressure. If this collapses it could lead to a very large eruption and a large flood as all the melting ice and water now in the caldera gets ejected into the land below and alongside.

3) The whole glacial ice in the calsera melts and the water sinks down into the main eruption chamber. This could be very nasty, with a massive eruption and floods and effects everywhere in Iceland.

It would be one of the major eruptions of the last few ages.

My take is that originally there was a 70% chance of option 1, 25% chance of option2 and a 5% of the mega volcano.

As it goes on, some of the experts on here are suggesting that the chance of one of the mega options is increasing.

Why?

The constant fissure eruption was thought to be slowly subsiding. This appears to have reversed slightly. (judging by the live web-camera shots.

The concentration of eruptions on the eastern and northern side of the volcano has remained.

The larger eruptions (M5) have reduced in number but are still occuring at lower intensities as frequently.

The caldera is constantly sinking (over 40 meters now)

Melt pools are now being seen on the top of the glacier recently. This does matter because it maeans that heating is coming up through the volcano. The air temp is below frezing.

This latter fact is worrying to me.....

I make it that the odds of option 3 are increasing.

In addition this mornings output now shows a m5.3 occured o/n, but this was on the ESE side. Most of the large eruptions recently have been on the northern side. This shows there still is a lot of instability around.

Two more M4 and above have occured in the couple of hours.

I have also noticed this morning that the pressure on two more volcanos in the area has increased noticably (Vis Hekla and Katya) If this is genuine (maybe some other reason for this - not related), I think this will cause more than a little interest during the day.

All in all no-one can predict, it could be on a knife edge. It certainly is a unique opportunity for our vulcanologists to study a potentially very large eruption from beginning to end.

MIA

Edited October 31, 2014 by Midlands Ice Age

[jonboy]

If we are to believe the GPS its just risen by 3m!!!!!

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/gps-measurements/bardarbunga/caldera/

and now its gone!!!!!

Edited October 31, 2014 by jonboy

[Sussex Jules]

Interesting update from IMO report today

 

"Energy of the geothermal areas in Bardarbunga is now few hundred megawatts and the melting of water is estimated around 2 cubic meters per second." I think the translation has gone a bit skewy and it should state melting ice, worrying times ahead.

 

http://en.vedur.is/media/jar/Factsheet_Bardarbunga_20141031.pdf

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

If we are to believe the GPS its just risen by 3m!!!!!

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/gps-measurements/bardarbunga/caldera/

and now its gone!!!!!

Not sure where our resident experts John P, Allseasons, John F and Rusty are this morning.

But to me something is changing...

The GPS as you saw above keeps 'going off the graph', then coming down again a few minutes later.

Could it be they are working on it or maybe it is weather related (I think snow is falling locally)?

The pattern has repeated for a couple of hours now.

The reports I gave above on Hekla and Katia above where joined by Vanaskard shortly afterwards and all were showing signs of a large pressure build up. In fairness they do seem to be steadying off again now. But what caused the sudden increases in all three?

Th trend on e/q's this pm looks to be reducing in number.

The Mila webcams are also down so we cannot see what is happening directly.

In addition the report above of icemelt due to the heat upwelling from Barba is getting quite worrying.

I am not experienced enough to be able to interpret the above signs, but to me they look a bit concerning.

MIA 

[Allseasons-Si]

Not sure where our resident experts John P, Allseasons, John F and Rusty are this morning.But to me something is changing...The GPS as you saw above keeps 'going off the graph', then coming down again a few minutes later.Could it be they are working on it or maybe it is weather related (I think snow is falling locally)?The pattern has repeated for a couple of hours now.The reports I gave above on Hekla and Katia above where joined by Vanaskard shortly afterwards and all were showing signs of a large pressure build up. In fairness they do seem to be steadying off again now. But what caused the sudden increases in all three?Th trend on e/q's this pm looks to be reducing in number.The Mila webcams are also down so we cannot see what is happening directly.In addition the report above of icemelt due to the heat upwelling from Barba is getting quite worrying.I am not experienced enough to be able to interpret the above signs, but to me they look a bit concerning.MIA

I am still on phone at the moment,trying to get pc sorted,as soon as I get back on the pc,you will know.

Edited October 31, 2014 by Allseasons-si

[cyclonic happiness]

 

 

I also am not an expert, but I have been watching this eruption closely since the end of August.

The take on this is that three possible scenarios exist for this event

1) It carries on as is and gradually fizzles out (make take several months or years)

2) The eastern side of the main caldera is being put under pressure. If this collapses it could lead to a very large eruption and a large flood as all the melting ice and water now in the caldera gets ejected into the land below and alongside.

3) The whole glacial ice in the calsera melts and the water sinks down into the main eruption chamber. This could be very nasty, with a massive eruption and floods and effects everywhere in Iceland.

It would be one of the major eruptions of the last few ages.

My take is that originally there was a 70% chance of option 1, 25% chance of option2 and a 5% of the mega volcano.

As it goes on, some of the experts on here are suggesting that the chance of one of the mega options is increasing.

Why?

The constant fissure eruption was thought to be slowly subsiding. This appears to have reversed slightly. (judging by the live web-camera shots.

The concentration of eruptions on the eastern and northern side of the volcano has remained.

The larger eruptions (M5) have reduced in number but are still occuring at lower intensities as frequently.

The caldera is constantly sinking (over 40 meters now)

Melt pools are now being seen on the top of the glacier recently. This does matter because it maeans that heating is coming up through the volcano. The air temp is below frezing.

This latter fact is worrying to me.....

I make it that the odds of option 3 are increasing.

In addition this mornings output now shows a m5.3 occured o/n, but this was on the ESE side. Most of the large eruptions recently have been on the northern side. This shows there still is a lot of instability around.

Two more M4 and above have occured in the couple of hours.

I have also noticed this morning that the pressure on two more volcanos in the area has increased noticably (Vis Hekla and Katya) If this is genuine (maybe some other reason for this - not related), I think this will cause more than a little interest during the day.

All in all no-one can predict, it could be on a knife edge. It certainly is a unique opportunity for our vulcanologists to study a potentially very large eruption from beginning to end.

MIA

Thanks for the response matey :-)

 

Very worrying then really? The thing is also pumping out thousands of tons of SO2 which if it continues at this rate, even without a major eruption, could it build up to dangerous concentration over the British Isles, like Laki?

[john pike]

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/areas/centralhighlands/

 

weather now and until tomorrow is very poor with a strong wind

 

this will effect all instruments so caution advised on the gps at present

 

 

current graph

2 quakes showing there

 

Friday
31.10.2014 18:57:10 64.666 -17.385 1.1 km 2.2 90.08 7.4 km ENE of Bárðarbunga Friday
31.10.2014 19:11:43 64.690 -17.360 1.1 km 3.6 50.5 9.7 km NE of Bárðarbunga

 

will have to wait for imo to update

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/#view=table

 

also

 

obviously issues with the equipment there

 

best bet re updates is here

 

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2947

 

the 3 outcomes are still

 

Three scenarios are considered most likely:

ï‚·

The eruption on Holuhraun

declines gradually and s

ubsidence of t

he Bard

arbunga caldera stops

.

ï‚·

Large

-

scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In

this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would le

ngthen southwards un

der Dyngjujokull,

resulting in a jo

kulhlaup and an ash

-

producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could

develop in another location under the glacier.

ï‚·

Large

-

scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the

caldera. Such an

eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading

to a major jo

kulhlaup, accompanied by

ash fall

.

http://en.vedur.is/media/jar/Factsheet_Bardarbunga_20141031.pdf

 

The total depression in the caldera is now about 42 meters

 

 

re the point about laki

 

its not nowhere near that yet

 

however as we cannot predict this anything is possible...

 

updates today

 

http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/10/31/geothermal-heat-bardarbunga-melts-glacier

 

new video inside and good      http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/10/30/new-video-volcano-taken-helicopter

 

also no cams now

 

http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga/

 

all we can do now is watch (but for now not the cams)

 

so2 updates

 

http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/OMI/OMISO2/northern_atlantic.html

Edited October 31, 2014 by john pike

[john pike]

M 5.1 - ICELAND - 2014-10-31 21:32:27 UTC

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=406516

 

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/seismologist.php

 

await imo

[john pike]

Friday

31.10.2014 21:32:22 64.670 -17.480 1.1 km 5.0 50.5 4.0 km NE of Bárðarbunga

only 50 quality

 

interesting to see how big this one is

 

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/#view=table

[Polarlow]

very shallow as well !!!!!!

[doctormog]

very shallow as well !!!!!!

I think that is the default depth of unverified quakes.

[john pike]

5 something and probably more than 1 quake

 

Friday
31.10.2014 21:32:22 64.673 -17.476 1.9 km 5.2 99.0 4.4 km NE of Bárðarbunga

 

a 5,2 and 1,9km is shallow  ne again

Edited October 31, 2014 by john pike

[Polarlow]

Very active tonight....

[john pike]

this thing is mad tonight

 

but need to really wait for the weather to die down to see if this not weather related

 

[john pike]

no cams so no viewing :(

 

list of quakes over 3 today

 

Saturday
01.11.2014 15:42:41 64.670 -17.390 1.1 km 3.9 50.5 7.3 km ENE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
01.11.2014 12:23:41 64.677 -17.473 0.4 km 4.0 99.0 4.8 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
01.11.2014 10:28:53 64.675 -17.423 3.4 km 4.1 99.0 6.3 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
01.11.2014 09:00:17 64.675 -17.490 7.1 km 4.3 99.0 4.3 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
01.11.2014 05:59:13 64.670 -17.452 8.0 km 4.5 99.0 4.9 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
01.11.2014 05:03:53 64.674 -17.439 8.8 km 4.2 99.0 5.6 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
01.11.2014 04:01:35 64.674 -17.461 7.1 km 4.1 99.0 5.0 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
01.11.2014 03:18:49 64.675 -17.485 7.1 km 4.1 99.0 4.3 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
01.11.2014 01:36:42 64.667 -17.447 3.6 km 4.0 99.0 4.8 km NE of

 

the top one has not been verified yet

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes#view=table

 

its on the graph now and looks around 4.2ish

 

http://en.vedur.is/media/jar/event_numbers_31102014_1900.pdf

approx amount of local quakes so far to date

 

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/areas/

weather looks poor and might be a wait until things settle down a bit

Edited November 1, 2014 by john pike

[john pike]

this is bonkers

but have to take the weather into account