Early winter hopes and chat

[richardc1983]

All bets are off now the media are saying "artic blast"

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2843066/Time-winter-woolies-Arctic-blast-temperatures-plunge-low-7C-cold-snap-hits-Britain.html

[andy989]

All bets are off now the media are saying "artic blast"

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2843066/Time-winter-woolies-Arctic-blast-temperatures-plunge-low-7C-cold-snap-hits-Britain.html

"-7...........................In the Scottish highlands" *Facepalm* 

[SE Blizzards]

How long can this incredible run of Mild months go on for? I haven't seen a single frost since April 2013!!

 

Right, i've had enough. It's time for a bit of reverse psychology..

 

I've just told the whole family that there is absolutely categorically no sign of any cold weather on the horizon for the UK for at least the next couple of weeks, maybe even 3!

 

Let's hope that backfires on me and leaves egg splattered across my face, just like when i've told them many many many times in the past that a big freeze is on the way - and then the exact opposite happens.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I wasn't sure where to put this so I figured this was as good a place as any. There's been a lot of talk about how the cold over in the US, if it continues through this winter, would adversely affect our chances of getting a cold winter (based almost entirely on last winter), so I did a very basic bit of data analysis to see how accurate that assessment was. I plotted a spatial correlation map between the DJF CET and the Met Office's global temperature series. Here are the results:

As you can see, the strongest correlation is, naturally, with temperatures for Northwest Europe, as you'd expect given that's the area nearest to the CET zone, but, interestingly, there's also a statistically significant positive correlation(although fairly weak still) between temperatures in the southeastern US and the CET, which means that, in general, we're more likely to see a cold winter when it's cold in the US than if it's mild. Of course, it's an incredibly crude correlation, but it's still fairly interesting. 

I also looked at the 'lower 48' US temperature series compared to the CET series for winter, which showed a similar trend (albeit an even weaker correlation):

Of the 11 coldest winters in the CET zone only 2 were above average in the states (1947 and 1941) and of the 11 coldest US winters only 2 were above average here (1899 and 1912, as 2014 didn't make that illustrious list). The coldest winter ever in the US was 1978/79, while the mildest was 1999/2000, with most of their mildest winters occurring in the late 1990s and early 2000s which were also some of the mildest on record here. That's not to say there aren't exceptions, like 2014, 1899 and 1949 when the US was notably below average while the UK was above, but don't get concerned by talk of a severe US winter - more likely than not we'll see the benefit of it as well at some point too.

Edited November 21, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[syed2878]

@LomondSnowstorm an interesting post i do hope we do get a below avrage winter this time round last winter when u.s enjoyed all the fun we were left with a nightmare of a winter. windstorm and rain is interesting but not 3months of it however to see the new record set that was something. Lets hope all the strat activity comes to fruition this time and we don't end up on the wrong side. I don't think I can take another winter like 2013-2014 it really took the jaffa cakes.

[BlueHedgehog074]

^^

 

Already been posted on last page - what a stonker!!!!  The only time I have ever experienced 'proper' thundersnow was the Saturday of December the 8th 1990 in B'ham at about 3am.

Would have loved to have experienced that, but sadly too young to have remembered it. Either that, or I probably slept through it (assuming it affected Solihull as well). Interestingly, though, this was the set-up for the UK on that day. 

 

 

Quite an unstable cold flow wrapped around the Low it seems, with heavy thundery wintry showers probably streaming well inland from the North Sea, so that probably would have made sense.

 

Even though it is rare here, I really hope now this Winter can churn out some good-quality thundersnow events. It would feel like heaven to experience it for real. 

[snowking]

I wasn't sure where to put this so I figured this was as good a place as any. There's been a lot of talk about how the cold over in the US, if it continues through this winter, would adversely affect our chances of getting a cold winter (based almost entirely on last winter), so I did a very basic bit of data analysis to see how accurate that assessment was. I plotted a spatial correlation map between the DJF CET and the Met Office's global temperature series. Here are the results:

us uk winter temp correlation.png

As you can see, the strongest correlation is, naturally, with temperatures for Northwest Europe, as you'd expect given that's the area nearest to the CET zone, but, interestingly, there's also a statistically significant positive correlation(although fairly weak still) between temperatures in the southeastern US and the CET, which means that, in general, we're more likely to see a cold winter when it's cold in the US than if it's mild. Of course, it's an incredibly crude correlation, but it's still fairly interesting. 

I also looked at the 'lower 48' US temperature series compared to the CET series for winter, which showed a similar trend (albeit an even weaker correlation):

us temp vs uk temp.png

Of the 11 coldest winters in the CET zone only 2 were above average in the states (1947 and 1941) and of the 11 coldest US winters only 2 were above average here (1899 and 1912, as 2014 didn't make that illustrious list). The coldest winter ever in the US was 1978/79, while the mildest was 1999/2000, with most of their mildest winters occurring in the late 1990s and early 2000s which were also some of the mildest on record here. That's not to say there aren't exceptions, like 2014, 1899 and 1949 when the US was notably below average while the UK was above, but don't get concerned by talk of a severe US winter - more likely than not we'll see the benefit of it as well at some point too.

That is a terrific bit of research and hopefully dispells the idea that just because some cold air happens to flood out of the Eastern seaboard we all of a sudden will see a roaring jet stream.

This idea may be the fault of the media - there were a lot of explanations last year about how the thermal gradient created across the Atlantic lead to the strengthened jet stream. Whilst very much true, this does not automatically mean that the same will happen every time a little cold air exits the US, and there were other factors which colluded to increase the jet strength.

Good work once again and next time I see the ridiculous notion that cold air thousands of miles to our west precludes cold here for the rest of the winter I will be pointing the poster in the direction of this.

[feb1991blizzard]

Would have loved to have experienced that, but sadly too young to have remembered it. Either that, or I probably slept through it (assuming it affected Solihull as well). Interestingly, though, this was the set-up for the UK on that day. 

 

dec 8th 1990.gifdec 8th 1990 850's.gif

 

Quite an unstable cold flow wrapped around the Low it seems, with heavy thundery wintry showers probably streaming well inland from the North Sea, so that probably would have made sense.

 

Even though it is rare here, I really hope now this Winter can churn out some good-quality thundersnow events. It would feel like heaven to experience it for real. 

 

 

I remember watching highlights of a one day international between England and New Zealand and looked out and it was very heavy, went to bed and got woke up a crack of thunder, I thought I hope it hasn't turned to rain, it hadn't, there was about 5 inches, we went on to get around 10 inches, B'ham city centre was a ghost town on a Saturday 3 weeks before xmas, from what I remember we weren't a million miles away from getting a pasting on the sunday afternoon either, the Easterly gave heavy snow to the Eastern and South East.

[feb1991blizzard]

That is a terrific bit of research and hopefully dispells the idea that just because some cold air happens to flood out of the Eastern seaboard we all of a sudden will see a roaring jet stream.

This idea may be the fault of the media - there were a lot of explanations last year about how the thermal gradient created across the Atlantic lead to the strengthened jet stream. Whilst very much true, this does not automatically mean that the same will happen every time a little cold air exits the US, and there were other factors which colluded to increase the jet strength.

Good work once again and next time I see the ridiculous notion that cold air thousands of miles to our west precludes cold here for the rest of the winter I will be pointing the poster in the direction of this.

 

To me it has always made sense that if a really potent cold outbreak drops down the Eastern USA then providing it is isn't fast moving West to East then surely the the trough is as likely to carve a strong ridge in the Atlantic possibly ridging up into Greenland thus resulting in a trough possibly in the North Sea and a Northerly here.

[terrier]

Well I think we can write the first half of dec off. ECM monthly update suggest we remain under southerly winds. Keeping temps above average. Out of this year we have only had August below average. And to be honest I can't see a sudden switch of us going into a run of below average. We may be seeing some positive signs regarding ssw etc but at the moment it's all pie in the sky. I'm Thinking we could be looking at one of the warmest years on record overall.

[Hocus Pocus]

Well I think we can write the first half of dec off. ECM monthly update suggest we remain under southerly winds. Keeping temps above average. Out of this year we have only had August below average. And to be honest I can't see a sudden switch of us going into a run of below average. We may be seeing some positive signs regarding ssw etc but at the moment it's all pie in the sky. I'm Thinking we could be looking at one of the warmest years on record overall.

Temps are not expected to be above average though, average yes. I agree with the first half of December being nothing of note for cold though.

[feb1991blizzard]

Well I think we can write the first half of dec off. ECM monthly update suggest we remain under southerly winds. Keeping temps above average. Out of this year we have only had August below average. And to be honest I can't see a sudden switch of us going into a run of below average. We may be seeing some positive signs regarding ssw etc but at the moment it's all pie in the sky. I'm Thinking we could be looking at one of the warmest years on record overall.

 

 

I would agree, in fact it would take something pretty extraordinary to knock the annual CET to anything anywhere approaching Normal but the last 2 months of winter are in the next year and we all know mild first half of winters have been known to turn into bitter second half of winters in the past.

[Summer Sun]

The Beijing climate center has flipped from a warm winter to a cold one in the final update before winter arrives

 

 

Precipitation remains mixed drier than normal for Scotland and slightly above normal else where

 

 

And to show the change here is what it had for temperatures last month

 

 

Just awaiting Jamstec now

[Don]

The Beijing climate center has flipped from a warm winter to a cold one in the final update before winter arrives

 

 

 

Precipitation remains mixed drier than normal for Scotland and slightly above normal else where

 

 

 

And to show the change here is what it had for temperatures last month

 

 

 

Just awaiting Jamstec now

 

Lets hope this is the start of a new trend for Winter........

[MidnightSnow]

The Beijing climate center has flipped from a warm winter to a cold one in the final update before winter arrives

 

 

Precipitation remains mixed drier than normal for Scotland and slightly above normal else where

 

 

And to show the change here is what it had for temperatures last month

 

 

Just awaiting Jamstec now

Yay! Some good news for coldies.

There seems to be a lot of optimism in the Mod thread but I get the impression we may have to wait a while before we see any significant cold.

I'd happily go another month of rain and muck if it meant there was something special at the end.

[MR EXTREMES]

Yay! Some good news for coldies.

There seems to be a lot of optimism in the Mod thread but I get the impression we may have to wait a while before we see any significant cold.

I'd happily go another month of rain and muck if it meant there was something special at the end.

would not bank on it the met office and ecm global long range model dont agree including the cfs.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I sure do miss the analysis of GP!

[NorthYorksWeather]

I sure do miss the analysis of GP!

I think we all do, when he posted everyone used to wee themselves, me included especially if it involved something positive wrt to snow.

[Don]

would not bank on it the met office and ecm global long range model dont agree including the cfs.

 

Absolutely, but still better to have the BCC show a cold update instead of another mild one.  We have to start somewhere.

[Summer Sun]

would not bank on it the met office and ecm global long range model dont agree including the cfs.

 

Last November's ens mean maps update from the met office when for high pressure to dominate over winter

 

 

And we all know what happened...................

 

PS

 

The Jamstec model hasn't updated for November yet the chat about it in the MOD thread is on the October update

Edited November 21, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Hocus Pocus]

Last November's ens mean maps update from the met office when for high pressure to dominate over winter

And we all know what happened...................

Indeed SS, let's not forget the GLOSEA model was way out last year so I don't see why people get all hung up over it, not like I've much confidence in any long range model tbh though. What will be will be, it's only weather after all. Edited November 21, 2014 by Hocus Pocus

[kate1]

Apparently JAMSTEC too are going for a colder than average winter, as of the latest update (or so it says over on the MOD thread). Baby steps I know, but IMHO we are still very much on track for a change to cold some time in mid to late December.

[pip22]

Likely to up to 100" of snow in North Buffalo by the time the next storm has moved through. I would advise any active weather fan to check out this thread from the American version of Netweather - Americanwx. 

 

Check out this thread from about Page 4-5-6 onwards, it's worth 20 minutes of any snow fans time!! To give people an idea.... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44743-upstate-nynorth-country-adjacent-on-qc-vt-end-of-fallinto-winter/page-6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I wished I live over there now.   Last Winter is so rubbish here with no snow! Global warming is gearing up at last it seems, at least on this side of Atlantic. Hopefully this Winter will be a lot colder one. I just have to keep on praying for it until it comes.

Edited November 21, 2014 by pip22

[johnholmes]

those piccs are really quite imcredible. I love the one with the dog, wonder what happens when it wants the loo!

[Timmytour]

Last Winter is so rubbish here with no snow! Global warming is gearing up at last it seems, at least on this side of Atlantic.

Errmm.... four out of the last six winters have been below the 1700-2013 average!! You have to go back nearly 30 years since there was such a concentration of below average winters. Funny time for global warming to be "gearing up"