Early winter hopes and chat

[The Post-modern Winter]

A lot of effort has gone into it so I appreciate the work . However to base a forecast on SST's and solar cycle alone is in my opinion naive .

If you build a house with lots of insulation put in the walls , a nice log burner and Central heating , but forget to put the windows in it simply won't keep you warm . No matter how well you do everything else .

His basing a forecast solely on one or two factors and missing out some extremely vital other components in my opinion .

But fair play to him what ever floats your boat I suppose.

I have to agree SSIB. It reminds me of the time I produced a research paper a few years back - incredibly lengthy, thoroughly researched and wonderfully written. I broached it from an entirely objective viewpoint however - I let my prior knowledge, assumptions and beliefs dictate my approach to research and writing - It was swiftly discredited. I then examined the same subject a year later with the same vigour and thoroughness but also an open mind. It was subsequently published and widely acclaimed. I am no meteorologist, it is simply the research methods I am taking issues with I.e. Ignoring of the strat profile is the equivalent to my mistakenly objective approach to my work.

I mean no offence to Ian on this front; I'm just surprised people are so incredibly willing to believe it is almost certainly correct.

In all fairness, looking at Ian's dislikes as stated in his bio, I think he would thoroughly disagree with much of my academic work; each to their own though.

[gsteruk]

I think your missing the point that people probably are not taking anything serious at all. More people are saying what they think, or would like the believe. Noones betting their house on it.

[Festivefreeze]

.

I understand that December 2010 was a bit colder overall than 1981 (another exceptionally cold December). But in terms of snowfall which of these was worse?

[Weather-history]

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I understand that December 2010 was a bit colder overall than 1981 (another exceptionally cold December). But in terms of snowfall which of these was worse?

It depends on location but snow on the ground generally lasted longer across the country in 1981 than in 2010. There was a break in the cold mid month in 2010. I think December 1981 was snowier overall than December 2010.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/34101-december-1981-january-1982/

[Festivefreeze]

Funny how December 1981 occurred around a solar maximum and December 2010 around a solar minimum. December 2010's overall temperature was slightly colder. Could this be because all the same factors came together again, but the very low solar activity caused it to be even colder? I know I'm probably just clutching at straws here.

Edited November 17, 2014 by November2005Fan

[Festivefreeze]

Well of course, it may not have had anything to do with it. I'm just becoming obsessed with the idea of sunspots affecting the weather.

[summer blizzard]

Is it possible for last year's winter pattern (i.e. exceptionally mild and wet) to be repeated even with an easterly QBO?

 

Yes. Winter 2012 and winter 08 both saw zonal periods.

It depends on location but snow on the ground generally lasted longer across the country in 1981 than in 2010. There was a break in the cold mid month in 2010. I think December 1981 was snowier overall than December 2010.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/34101-december-1981-january-1982/

 

Snow managed to last on the local fields in 2010 here so that i got 25 days of cover (peak of 23cm) though the aforementioned fields go as high as 220m.

[Festivefreeze]

 

In that case, would I be right in assuming that cold winters are still possible even in Westerly QBO seasons?

[summer blizzard]

 

 

In that case, would I be right in assuming that cold winters are still possible even in Westerly QBO seasons?

 

 

Yes. Winters 09 and 11 were both cold winters as a whole. 

[Festivefreeze]

You can probably tell I'm no professional. Lol

[meathead]

Got to admit, I am really concerned that the met office look a head forecast mentions nothing about cold, not even for Scotland. Can anyone remember when they picked up on what happened in 2010?

[Festivefreeze]

I have also had a look at the met office look ahead, and I noticed too that they don't seem to be mentioning anything about cold. They do seem to be expecting high pressure to develop though, so lets hope this brings in some chillier air...

[BornFromTheVoid]

Got to admit, I am really concerned that the met office look a head forecast mentions nothing about cold, not even for Scotland. Can anyone remember when they picked up on what happened in 2010?

 

From the MO further outlook thread here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/?p=1879157

 

From the 7th of November 2010

 

UK Outlook for Friday 12 Nov 2010 to Sunday 21 Nov 2010:

Remaining predominantly unsettled and windy with showers or longer spells of rain, which are expected to be heavy at times. For Friday and Saturday, the heaviest rain is expected in western and north-western parts of the UK, with some eastern and northeastern parts remaining generally dry. Some of this precipitation may turn to snow over northern hills. Thereafter, staying unsettled, with any drier weather most likely in the south and east. It will be generally windy throughout, especially when low pressure systems pass close to the UK. Temperatures start near or just below normal, especially in the north where overnight frosts are likely, and then recover to nearer normal, with some milder interludes in the south. Later in the period there is an increasing trend towards drier, colder conditions.

 

Updated: 1241 on Sun 7 Nov 2010

 

 

The cold theme remains on the rest of their updates after that, so they spotted the cold signal quite early.

[terrier]

Let's get dec out the way, then hopefully we may see the affects of the ssw as we move into January.

[Festivefreeze]

I would love to see another December 2010. Let's face it cold weather makes the festive period feel more traditional. Sadly though the odds alone suggest that this December is unlikely to be as cold as 2010's. Having said that though, the jet stream has been behaving very strangely in recent years, and we do seem to have had lots of extremes. December 2010 was the coldest in 100 years, but the pattern could be repeated any time, who knows...?

[Festivefreeze]

Weather Online has just updated it's outlook, and it sounds promising. They are going for colder weather next week, after a fairly mild start. It looks as though high pressure will be influencing our weather. Let's just hope that they haven't changed their mind by the time the next update is issued.

Edited November 17, 2014 by November2005Fan

[Winter Cold]

Its always dissapointing when the cold charts are taken away, but it is still only the middle of November. I frequently have to keep reminding myself of that.

 

Its very unusual for the UK to get its cold and snow before Christmas, the northern hemisphere is still cooling and changing, and so the deep cold isnt usualy available until later on.

 

I am not too worried at the moment, if this was the 17th February and we hadnt seen any cold and snow yet then i might be getting deja vu from last year but it isnt

 

We just need to look at last year as being as exeptional and special as December 2010, but just the other end of the scale, and is therefore unlikely to be repeated.

 

The large scale view of thingts this year is very very different and so i think there are lots of things working in our favour to see some cold and snow this winter

Edited November 17, 2014 by Winter Cold

[throwoff]

I'm not sure where this idea METO have not called for cold has come from, as previous posts show they said their was a spell of colder weather coming some weeks ago, I am not sure what more people want in the 16-30 from them, they are not going to call a blizzard in the same way as they are not going to call record breaking high temps that far in advance. 

 

I say it time and again, and my time on Netweather has taught me it so well, if there is one event in weather that needs Nowcasting more than Forecasting it is snow.

 

We are not even half way through November, in 2010 nobody expected what was to come in 20 days time. The OPI, Strat, Snow and Ice threads are all saying there will be some cold coming and yet because the METO, who let's agree have had years of bad press are not willing to call snow for a months time people are calling winter a bust. 

 

I have given up more than skimming the charts at the moment, let's remember that a couple of weeks ago they were showing Atlantic driven storms and rain for now, although it is mild and rainy we have had nothing like what the models showed. 

 

Look at my signature, it is pretty clear what sort of weather I love, but I will not write off the Winter till Spring, sure I might get a bit fed up if we keep getting near misses and let downs in the depth of the season but for now we are not even out of first gear.

 

This could be the start of a miserable winter, just the same as it could be 'the calm before the storm' 

 

Take a deep breath and enjoy the ride!

Edited November 17, 2014 by throwoff

[Eugene]

Yes lets save the true cold for Christmas onwards, annoying how everyone thinks its mild in mid November with average temps and gloomy weather making it feel cold especially after an incredibly warm day just over two weeks ago, seems they have very short memories.

 

Wish we could have a sub zero CET for March but that has never been recorded.

[Methuselah]

I can't see quite how what folks have 'called for' makes an iota of difference: the weather will do what the weather will do; and our collective state of not-knowing is what makes it all such fun?

[hillbilly]

.

I understand that December 2010 was a bit colder overall than 1981 (another exceptionally cold December). But in terms of snowfall which of these was worse?

December 1981 was much worse here than 2010.

2010 had a 12 inch snowcover with no wind,hence no drifts but constant severe temps.Average -0.7 deg a mild gap in the middle.

1981 had enormous drifts after a huge blizzard with every road in the district blocked and severe temps to go with it also colder here than 2010 at -1 deg and had do mild interlude in fact if it hadn't gone mild at the end of the month it would have stretched through to mid January[first half of jan just as bad] !!!!

[MidnightSnow]

All I hope for this winter is a decent spell of cold and snow. 1-2 weeks of REAL cold weather preferably in December would suit me just fine.

Anything but a repeat of last Winter

[feb1991blizzard]

Much better 12z GEFS suite, MEAN vertical advection at 264.

 

[Timmytour]

There was not a single air frost recorded in the month of November 1946

just saying

[whiskers]

All I've heard on the radio and tv is how winter has been written off ,it's a wet mild damp winter! Noooo can't cope with another one like last year!