Early winter hopes and chat

[Festivefreeze]

Thanks for the links Bobby, and Summer blizzard, I enjoyed reading your post about November 2005. Thanks for your explanation, Blast from The Past, about that November.

 

Does know whether we are heading towards a NNAO?

[Mark wheeler]

hi Mark

Please do not be afraid to ask questions. That is how we all advance our understanding of the fascinating subject the weather. have you had a look at the Net Wx Guides. Lots of information for a beginner in there. Not sure then please pm me and perhaps we can chat via pm rather than the thread if you like.

Many thanks John I will have a good read . Lots to get through :-) thanks also for the invite to pm you. I will read up on the guides first and then if needed take you up on your offer. Kind regards

[legritter]

I have just spent a couple of hours relaxing in the warm sun outside our summer house ,having taken a break from sorting out elderly relatives .dusted off some old weather diarys and had a read of winters past going back a couple of centurys ,The combinations of different weather synoptics very interesting but alas NO pattern or indications of what could happen in our further outlook .This i find a good thing ,it would be boring and too Clinical if we could predict too far ahead .As for early winter hopes ,It would be nice for a cold snowy winter but with plenty of different synoptics playing out .Nice to look at Updated Fax charts as apposed to long range charts ,i find the fax charts very interesting [A Meteorologists paint brush if you like ] And also getting off my Butt and actually looking skywards ,to see things like Halos ,that approaching weather front ,AND to finish the chase That first snowflake that makes the heart flutter when seen against the Halogen light as your peeping out the side of the window .When i said move my But i mean get off the computer AND enjoy mother nature more .so lets hope for some polar lows ,also some low pressure systems to our south [depending of course on each net weather posters location ]plenty of Lake effect snow ,and with Sea surface temp high that could be good .Thirteen weeks of winter ahead ,lets hope its an interesting period ,Brilliant forums and a good learning area for all ,cheers .  

[Festivefreeze]

Is the fact that the cold winters of recent years have tended to follow cool summers, just pure coincidence or is there a scientific reason that cold winters follow cool summers? I have often wondered about this, because the mild winters of the late 1990s and early 2000s tended to coincide  with warmish summers too if I remember right...? Would I be right in thinking that warm summers store more heat into the seas surrounding Britain, meaning that it takes longer to cool down the following autumn/spring and in cool summers, not so much heat is absorbed by the ocean so the seas are cooler than they normally would be when we approach autumn?

Edited November 15, 2014 by November2005Fan

[hillbilly]

Is the fact that the cold winters of recent years have tended to follow cool summers, just pure coincidence or is there a scientific reason that cold winters follow cool summers? I have often wondered about this, because the mild winters of the late 1990s and early 2000s tended to coincide  with warmish summers too if I remember right...? Would I be right in thinking that warm summers store more heat into the seas surrounding Britain, meaning that it takes longer to cool down the following autumn/spring and in cool summers, not so much heat is absorbed by the ocean so the seas are cooler than they normally would be when we approach autumn?

Possibly right to a certain extent,but not always.The opposite is not the same as good summers are not preceeded by mild winters !!!!

[January Snowstorm]

Big changes happening today in favour of cold

[damianslaw]

Is the fact that the cold winters of recent years have tended to follow cool summers, just pure coincidence or is there a scientific reason that cold winters follow cool summers? I have often wondered about this, because the mild winters of the late 1990s and early 2000s tended to coincide  with warmish summers too if I remember right...? Would I be right in thinking that warm summers store more heat into the seas surrounding Britain, meaning that it takes longer to cool down the following autumn/spring and in cool summers, not so much heat is absorbed by the ocean so the seas are cooler than they normally would be when we approach autumn?

 

May be more pure coincidence but a number of cool summers have been followed by cold winters, 1978 is a good example, also 1985 and most recently 2010 (though we can only count the first half of winter 10/11 as cold). Summer 09 was near average temp wise.

 

We have had warm summers followed by cold winters as well, 1995 being a good example, 1984 to a lesser extent. We've also had cool summers followed by mild winters 1988 a good example and a number of mild winter warm summer combos, 2013 most recent, 2006 most notably so, 2004, 1994 and 1989 also.

 

Talking about Nov 05, it was a superb November in my book lots of variety, a mild wet start quickly becoming cool and settled prior to mid month and then a cold generally wintry second half with fog and snow and hard frosts. It came on the back of a lengthy very warm period and tied in with the Met Office thoughts at the time of a colder than average winter with negative NAO - what we ended up with though was a preety average winter temp wise, with a stubborn mid atlantic high pressure cell that on occasion ridged far enough north to bring down cold polar air - as in late November and again early March, but all too often just languished in situ producing maxes in the 4-7 degree range and mins in the 0-3 degree range, chilly but nothing special. It was also a very dry winter indeed.

[summer blizzard]

Is the fact that the cold winters of recent years have tended to follow cool summers, just pure coincidence or is there a scientific reason that cold winters follow cool summers? I have often wondered about this, because the mild winters of the late 1990s and early 2000s tended to coincide  with warmish summers too if I remember right...? Would I be right in thinking that warm summers store more heat into the seas surrounding Britain, meaning that it takes longer to cool down the following autumn/spring and in cool summers, not so much heat is absorbed by the ocean so the seas are cooler than they normally would be when we approach autumn?

 

Seasonal correlations are very weak implying its just coincidence. Indeed summers 09 and 10 were warmer than average.

[Mark Neal.]

Some impressive looking eye candy on the GFS 18Z/ & Parallel... (IN FI So big pinch of salt, but encouraging to see signs of a 'Potential Change'...

 

 

. 

 

Quite possibly gone by morning, but something wintry for us to at least keep an eye on, albeit in FI currently..!

[Paul123]

EC starting to look wintry. High building over Scandinavia; easterlies dominant. 

 

It will take some time to get (really) frosty, but it is something to begin with.

 

Edited November 16, 2014 by Paul123

[January Snowstorm]

Does anyone know where stuart aka GP went to ? His thoughts at the moment would be very interesting

[Festivefreeze]

Quite a few of the longer range forecasts seem to be hinting at high pressure having more of an influence on the UK's weather later next week. However most seem to show temperatures remaining close to or above the average. I'm assuming that the temperatures we experience depend on where the high is centred, as this determines the air flow that we get...?

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

Does anyone know where stuart aka GP went to ? His thoughts at the moment would be very interesting

He went to 'a very large' organisation. Assumed to be the BBC.

He is not allowed to appear on here.

MIA

[johnholmes]

Quite a few of the longer range forecasts seem to be hinting at high pressure having more of an influence on the UK's weather later next week. However most seem to show temperatures remaining close to or above the average. I'm assuming that the temperatures we experience depend on where the high is centred, as this determines the air flow that we get...?

 

correct and that is part of the key to what will happen. If we are all honest none of us can say with any certainty just what will happen. Remember also IF cold does arrive it is only mid November. Take a look at the statistics as to how many times lowland England at any rate has had snow of more than fleeting apperance around this date. Oh it has occurred but not often. I am 75+ and have lived in various places but apart from Shetland I cannot remember lying snow at low level until the last week of the month.

[Weather-history]

Is the fact that the cold winters of recent years have tended to follow cool summers, just pure coincidence or is there a scientific reason that cold winters follow cool summers? I have often wondered about this, because the mild winters of the late 1990s and early 2000s tended to coincide  with warmish summers too if I remember right...? Would I be right in thinking that warm summers store more heat into the seas surrounding Britain, meaning that it takes longer to cool down the following autumn/spring and in cool summers, not so much heat is absorbed by the ocean so the seas are cooler than they normally would be when we approach autumn?

The only possible seasonal correlation that I can see is that a severe winter, sub 2C CET generally does not favour a warm summer following it. If someone did some stats on it to see if there is anything to it but I think you can count on one hand, warm summers that have followed severe winters, 1947 is one.

Another possible correlation is a very warm June, CET of 16.0C or more and that the December that followed has not been mild as a whole. I think you can count one hand, > 5C CET Decembers that have followed such a June.

[Festivefreeze]

Do you believe that the rare freeze experienced in Britain in late November and throughout December 2010 was anything to do with reduced solar activity? I have heard lots about the idea that solar variability affects the weather. I know that Piers Corbyn of Weather Action believes that the Jet stream is affected by solar activity, rather than the temperature contrast between the tropics and the Arctic. I do understand, of course, that Piers is not a mainstream weather forecaster, and although I find his predictions interesting I'm not saying that I believe them. What do you think?

Edited November 16, 2014 by November2005Fan

[Polar Maritime]

Do you believe that the rare freeze experienced in Britain in late November and throughout December 2010 was anything to do with reduced solar activity? I have heard lots about the idea that solar variability affects the weather. I know that Piers Corbyn of Weather Action believes that the Jet stream is affected by solar activity, rather than the temperature contrast between the tropics and the Arctic. I do understand, of course, that Piers is not a mainstream weather forecaster, and although I find his predictions interesting I'm not saying that I believe them. What do you think?

 

It does play a part in the broad scale of things as proven in the Suns cycles, But with many other signals in the background to also take into consideration, And how they relate to each other, There is much more scientists need to learn on the subject before using it in isolation.  

[Festivefreeze]

So basically low sunspot activity may have played a big part in the freeze of 2010, but there's other factors that could cause such cold outbreaks? Something like December 2010 is possible even in years with high solar activity?

[Hocus Pocus]

It does play a part in the broad scale of things as proven in the Suns cycles, But with many other signals in the background to also take into consideration, And how they relate to each other, There is much more scientists need to learn on the subject before using it in isolation.  

Indeed PM, I think we've only scratched the surface on what we know about our climate and as technology and our understanding  gets better then improvements in forecasts accuracy will continue.

[Weather-history]

Do you believe that the rare freeze experienced in Britain in late November and throughout December 2010 was anything to do with reduced solar activity? I have heard lots about the idea that solar variability affects the weather. I know that Piers Corbyn of Weather Action believes that the Jet stream is affected by solar activity, rather than the temperature contrast between the tropics and the Arctic. I do understand, of course, that Piers is not a mainstream weather forecaster, and although I find his predictions interesting I'm not saying that I believe them. What do you think?

It may have been a factor but December 2010 was just part of something that was really peculiar about 2010. There was a remarkable persistent blocking pattern in the Greenland area that started infact during mid March 2008 but it was very notable during 2010.

If you do a 500mb anomaly chart of the northern hemisphere for that period March 2008 to December 2010, you'll see how much the anomaly was around the Greenland region. December 2010 was just a period where this anomaly really intensified.

Edited November 16, 2014 by Weather-history

[Polar Maritime]

So basically low sunspot activity may have played a big part in the freeze of 2010, but there's other factors that could cause such cold outbreaks? Something like December 2010 is possible even in years with high solar activity?

 

Scientist have found a correlation in the Suns cycles that during long periods of low activity it does have a cooling effect on Europe.

 

We are currently in a period called cycle 24 (solar max), Where the sun is suppose to emit lots of activity, But so far activity over the past few years has been very low, So yes i would say the Sun did have an effect in 2010, But how much is open to question as we have no idea what the effect of other forcing's have when bought into play. 

 

One thing is for sure, That is at least the Sun is on our side this year again and the next few years ahead, As were coming out of the peak of the cycle it can only get quieter, And hopefully spotless .

Edited November 16, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Festivefreeze]

Did the same thing happen in December 1981? Or was that a different setup altogether? I mean what was sunspot activity like then?

Edited November 16, 2014 by November2005Fan

[Polar Maritime]

Did the same thing happen in December 1981? Or was that a different setup altogether? I mean what was sunspot activity like then?

 

1981 was during another Solar Max, But activity was much higher then this one.

Edited November 16, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Festivefreeze]

Thanks for posting that graph. So if 2010 was caused mainly by low solar activity, what caused December 1981?

[Polar Maritime]

Thanks for posting that graph. So if 2010 was caused mainly by low solar activity, what caused December 1981?

 

That's a very good question! But remember Winter 2010 was not caused directly by low activity but it would of helped, As i said there are many other factors/forcings at play to considerate and learn by Scientists.

 

Very early days for forecasters to use as a tool stand alone. And one that does is a fool, Using the correlation to prove an LRF, A few spring to mind.. 

Edited November 16, 2014 by Polar Maritime