Early winter hopes and chat

[Bobby]

Hi everyone. This is my first time posting here, so please forgive me if I have posted this on the wrong thread. I have been interested in the weather since I was a teenager, and I found the topic very interesting when I did it at GCSE Geography. Although, I have not posted on here before, I like to read the messages.

 

Although I am no weather expert, my gut feeling is that the coming winter is likely to be another mild and wet one. My guess is based on the fact that there has recently been very cold air spilling into north America. Therefore I think that, like last year, this will strengthen the temperature contrast over the Atlantic, and help to drive the jet stream.

 

Hey, welcome to NW. Like the name, I remember that November 2005 cold spell well - we had an unexpected few inches of snow overnight here. Then some nice crisp frosty weather. Best November for cold/snow until 2010. Nowt since either.

Don't know what to think about the winter as a whole but I think the winter will at least begin as you say.

[The Post-modern Winter]

John Hammond on BBC news weather just said "nothing particularly cold on the horrizon not in the near future any way"...

 

so does this mean that there is cold coming soon but not this week?? or does it mean next month?? and of cause he said "nothing particularly cold"

 

i guess that is open to what you deem to be cold...

 

On the regional weather forecast for the North West on ITV last night, the forecaster stated that there is "no sign of it turning any colder, not until the end of November anyway". I'm aware this maybe nothing, but I am hearing many televised weather reports mentioning colder weather and the end of the month in to December. Does this tie in with Snowballz rather tantalising titbits concerning interest moving into December from yesterday, or am I clutching straws . .

[johnholmes]

On the regional weather forecast for the North West on ITV last night, the forecaster stated that there is "no sign of it turning any colder, not until the end of November anyway". I'm aware this maybe nothing, but I am hearing many televised weather reports mentioning colder weather and the end of the month in to December. Does this tie in with Snowballz rather tantalising titbits concerning interest moving into December from yesterday, or am I clutching straws . .

 

I would have thought not. No idea where she got that info from if in fact she has got inside info. The Met O outlook goes into December and makes no mention of colder indeed over the past few days, about 4 maybe 5 days ago there was a mention of cold and snow but only regarding their occurrence as being below average for the time of year the 16-30 day then covered.

The 500mb anomaly charts are usually fairly reliable out to day 15 IF they are supported by other evidence. They do not, at the moment, show any sudden surge of deep cold air in that time frame.

To support what I have written, the AO, currently well -ve predicted to move towards zero, NAO (damn=lost link) not very -ve, MJO phase 1 predict going to 2, neither suggest the 500mb flow will favour any deep cold.

One link below shows the US forecaters also believe the current deep cold air being advected south by the ridge over the Alaska region will be cut off as a less meridional flow develops, this being suggested on the 500mb anomaly charts days 8-14, is another clue.

Hope this is seen as a constructive post neither pro cold or pro mild.

for accuracy I found the Met O 16-30 day outlook on 7 November (thanks to Stu who posts them most days), the relevant bit is below

Whilst occasional colder spells of weather are possible, incidences of frost and snow may be less widespread and frequent than is typical at this time of year.

 

That is the comment they dropped from subsequent forecasts.

Edited November 12, 2014 by johnholmes

[Tim Bland]

On the regional weather forecast for the North West on ITV last night, the forecaster stated that there is "no sign of it turning any colder, not until the end of November anyway". I'm aware this maybe nothing, but I am hearing many televised weather reports mentioning colder weather and the end of the month in to December. Does this tie in with Snowballz rather tantalising titbits concerning interest moving into December from yesterday, or am I clutching straws . .

 

Clutching at straws a bit i'm afraid.  Meto forecast now goes out as far as Mid Dec and stays average  http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07

[ukpaul]

I really don't understand how anyone can put faith in any forecast beyond a few days (for specifics) or a week and a half or so for general patterns. Surely experience tells people not to trust it.

 

Anyway, whilst commenting, my main 'hope' we don't see any of the following anymore in the MOD thread -

 

1) We need a pattern reset', the weather is not a computer it is a chaotic system that does not have a 'reset'. In any case, last year those asking for it, got something that approximated it and then look what happened.

2) Anyone claiming to be a 'realist'. Anything beyond a short time frame does not have a 'reality'.

3) The most egregious, anyone trying to use 'reverse psychology', the weather is not sentient, it isn't going to respond to psychological trickery. All you're doing is annoying people.

 

Having said that, a quick advert for anyone to follow the strat. thread, lots of nice charts and new ideas to pick up on. 

[Ravelin]

I really don't understand how anyone can put faith in any forecast beyond a few days (for specifics) or a week and a half or so for general patterns. Surely experience tells people not to trust it.

 

Anyway, whilst commenting, my main 'hope' we don't see any of the following anymore in the MOD thread -

 

1) We need a pattern reset', the weather is not a computer it is a chaotic system that does not have a 'reset'. In any case, last year those asking for it, got something that approximated it and then look what happened.

2) Anyone claiming to be a 'realist'. Anything beyond a short time frame does not have a 'reality'.

3) The most egregious, anyone trying to use 'reverse psychology', the weather is not sentient, it isn't going to respond to psychological trickery. All you're doing is annoying people.

 

Having said that, a quick advert for anyone to follow the strat. thread, lots of nice charts and new ideas to pick up on. 

 

In addition to the above, could we all agree on a definition of 'mild', as the 'mild' word seems to start more disagreements than anything in the MOD thread. Is 'Mild' a specific temperature range e.g. 12-18 degC, and if so what's the range? Or is it in relation to the average temperature for the time of year e.g. it's 'mild' if the temp is 9 degC when on average it should be 5 degC? At the moment one person's definition of 'mild' seems to differ vasty from anothers.

Edited November 12, 2014 by Ravelin

[terrier]

Think after reading met office 16-30 day outlook I will take a break from model watching. Looks like a westerly set up out to mid dec. think we will see a cold outbreak but perhaps in the new year. Just hope we don't see the awful flooding we had last year in the run upto xmas.

[mountain shadow]

Think after reading met office 16-30 day outlook I will take a break from model watching. Looks like a westerly set up out to mid dec. think we will see a cold outbreak but perhaps in the new year. Just hope we don't see the awful flooding we had last year in the run upto xmas.

Ok, see you in Mid December.

[jy]

Well over the last 3 days my fishing mecca the Hampshire Avon has gone from easy paced and quite low to being nearing coming over the banks so sadly some flooding will take place,just hope its not too bad regionally,especially the South West who suffered so badly last year.

[johnholmes]

In addition to the above, could we all agree on a definition of 'mild', as the 'mild' word seems to start more disagreements than anything in the MOD thread. Is 'Mild' a specific temperature range e.g. 12-18 degC, and if so what's the range? Or is it in relation to the average temperature for the time of year e.g. it's 'mild' if the temp is 9 degC when on average it should be 5 degC? At the moment one person's definition of 'mild' seems to differ vasty from anothers.

There are specific temperatures for each season which the Met Office use, somewhere is a copy on Net Wx. I will see if I can find it and post in here.

that did not work will have to save to a file and then post-give me a bit of time?

 

Temp definitions.doc

Edited November 12, 2014 by johnholmes

[richardc1983]

Just seen this over at uk weather forecast

http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/opi-winter-negative-opi-may-lead-colder-winter/

[egret]

Think after reading met office 16-30 day outlook I will take a break from model watching. Looks like a westerly set up out to mid dec. think we will see a cold outbreak but perhaps in the new year. Just hope we don't see the awful flooding we had last year in the run upto xmas.

 

November2005Fan - welcome (and yours is a fair observation).

 

Terrier - I cannot help thinking back to 2010 when a number of model outputs kept hinting at a Northerly incursion well before the event, then all went quiet for a week or two before the jigsaw pieces suddenly fell into place, literally at 24 hr notice. RThe dramatic events had been forecast by the models, which swung away from the scenario before swinging back in at the last moment. This was being discussed on the forum at least 36 hours before the Meto spoke openly about the possibility. (and top marks to the posters who were commenting on this possibility in advance of Meto!)

For that reason I do watch and read carefully the posts of those whose trained eye picks out small details in the model outputs, trends, teleconnections, probablities etc. 

 

Similarly Ian Ferguson it was i believe who commented last year (about a week before Xmas and I paraphrase) 'the coming period is likely to be remembered for the wrong reasons' - ie when others were calling a cold shot he was seeing unprecedented and possibly prolonged rain. Those words in my view deserve equal prominence in the history books to the much misquoted statement of Michael Fish in 1987. I seem to recall Ian Ferguson commenting helpfully in the run up to cold in 2010 also (was that in the regional thread?).

Edited November 12, 2014 by egret

[johnholmes]

 

November2005Fan - welcome (and yours is a fair observation).

 

Terrier - I cannot help thinking back to 2010 when a number of model outputs kept hinting at a Northerly incursion well before the event, then all went quiet for a week or two before the jigsaw pieces suddenly fell into place, literally at 24 hr notice. RThe dramatic events had been forecast by the models, which swung away from the scenario before swinging back in at the last moment. This was being discussed on the forum at least 36 hours before the Meto spoke openly about the possibility. (and top marks to the posters who were commenting on this possibility in advance of Meto!)

For that reason I do watch and read carefully the posts of those whose trained eye picks out small details in the model outputs, trends, teleconnections, probablities etc. 

 

Similarly Ian Ferguson it was i believe who commented last year (about a week before Xmas and I paraphrase) 'the coming period is likely to be remembered for the wrong reasons' - ie when others were calling a cold shot he was seeing unprecedented and possibly prolonged rain. Those words in my view deserve equal prominence in the history books to the much misquoted statement of Michael Fish in 1987. I seem to recall Ian Ferguson commenting helpfully in the run up to cold in 2010 also (was that in the regional thread?).

 

Are you serious? The 6-15 day had it and the 16-30 had predicted it for quite some time. Credit when it is due please. I am sure you will find in Net Wx archives and that the 500mb anomaly charts showed this at least 15 days, consistently, prior to it occurring. 

[EML Network]

I have to laugh, every winter we go through the same discussions and you'd think after 4 or 5 years of heavy debate that we'd come to some sort of conclusion about LR Forecasting, the Met O, the GFS, the CFS, the ECM , Anomaly charts, SST Charts, Tripole, Snow Index, Sunspot count and activity, La Nina, El Nino, Polar Vortex, Waves, The Strat, etc etc etc etc

 

The truth is that even armed with all of this information, ever faster computers, new data such as the OPI, were still none the wiser about what is likely to happen more than 7 - 10 days out and even that is a stretch. 

 

If there was a magic formula someone would have discovered it by now and would be making billions. 

 

So, were left in a magic wonderland of debate and chart watching and hopecasting, but for me this is what makes this whole area of study and debate so interesting, you just never know whats going to happen until is has happened or until it's about to happen, the fun comes in watching it develop and discussing where it's headed. 

 

I hope that we never get to the point where we can say for sure what will happen more than a few weeks out, because the fun would go out of chart watching and forums like this would all but die. 

 

I hope we get cold and snow this winter, I hope that every Winter, we seem to be in a better position presently to have the opportunity to have a cold spell at some point this winter, if it happens and when that will be...well that's what we all love discussing and nobody really knows more than anyone else. 

 

Gut feelings are just as reliable as Science when looking at more than a month out, we're in tune to nature more than any super computer will ever be and more than we give ourselves credit for, we  should remember that and not rely solely on what exists merely inside a computer model.

Edited November 12, 2014 by EML Network

[Smiler1709]

I'm still a true believer that the weather will do what it wants when it wants, it's laughable reading some of the troll comments on the mod thread, people writing winter off before it's begun. I like to just watch and wait you never know what's round the corner. My dad said the best way the forecast the weather is to stick your head out the window in the morning lol.

[SE Blizzards]

Simon Keeling has gone into some sort of cold ramp mode (something he rarely does) in his latest video today.

 

A must view for all cold weather fans.

 

[Mair Snaw]

Simon Keeling has gone into some sort of cold ramp mode (something he rarely does) in his latest video today.

 

A must view for all cold weather fans.

 

Keeling ramping cold....lol now if i hadnt seen it with my own eyes.....

[Hocus Pocus]

Interesting looking at the comparison with 2009, one area which he didn't touch on was the cold waters around the North East Pacific in 2009 compared to the warmer waters there now.

[johnholmes]

30% risk of much colder in the next 2-4 weeks is the gist of what he said, or so it seemed to me. Be interesting what he thinks in say 10 days. Some solid signal/comparisons but one or two others looked a bit dodgy to me.

[PolarWarsaw]

Well, according to some in the MOD thread tonight...winter is over. Well, yeah. It's not wintery outside at the moment because....IT STILL HASN'T BEGUN. Some people are embarassing on the thread...truly. 

 

11th of November - who cares what happened last year, or for the previous 20 years before. This winter could still be a repeat of last year...or 1947. 

Edited November 12, 2014 by PolarWarsaw

[SE Blizzards]

30% risk of much colder in the next 2-4 weeks is the gist of what he said, or so it seemed to me. Be interesting what he thinks in say 10 days. Some solid signal/comparisons but one or two others looked a bit dodgy to me.

 

Yes John, quite a few similarities between 2009/10 and this year, but as we all know no two Winters are ever the same. Interesting nonetheless.

 

And i would suggest a 30% risk of much colder weather in the next 2-4 weeks is about 29% higher than where we were this time last year.

Edited November 12, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[Chris K]

I'm happy - Some good posts from many members, but I have particularly been following the great posts from Tamara and Snowking and so far they have been pretty accurate with their thoughts

 

Shame they were not stickied in some sort of way, as people seem to completely forget about this sort of good information after a new page starts in the thread. No one is ever 100% correct all the time, but we are lucky to see such detail instead of the usual emotive responses to models that do not show people's desired evolution at this time.

 

 

The model output this morning continues to consolidate the pattern for the short term with continued surface trough disruption and unsettled conditions for the UK against a macro NH pattern which is altogether much more appealing for the long term.

 

As expected, the models are converging on a solution in the 10 day period that excludes height rises over Greenland and any meaningful attempt to back Siberian cold westwards. The ECM has adjusted its bullish suggestions accordingly and consensus settles around a trough disruption graveyard just to our west or over the UK.  We might expect this cyclonic pattern to persist for the greater part of the 10 day period.

 

As the models thereafter start to fade the modest height anomaly to the north of the British Isles and the AO trends less negative, this heads towards the last week or so period of November where at face value the large scale pattern may look much less appealing than now (as referred to yesterday) but in fact it represents a time when interest of proper future cold prospects has greater justification than it does at present.

 

The latest words from the Italians, representing Cohen's very latest thinking on their stratospheric thread, give a very interesting insight into what is happening right now in the large scale NH pattern which increasingly looks to have significant repercussions on what lies ahead as we approach the pre-festive period. It should also increase anticipation very nicely of the imminent Cohen update on the conclusions from the finishing stats on the OPI.

 

I think that an endorsement will follow in this update that what we are seeing advertised in the models right now is a typical strong SAI pattern/progression. The role that Super-Typhoon Nuri plays in this, looks set to have accelerated the -AO feedback loops and might have mouth-watering prospects further down the line for seasonal shopping.

 

The position and depth of this low in tandem with the current heights between Russia and Scandinavia are ripely primed to activate serious wave propagation in the stratosphere. Obviously this type of hope and expectation is already documented in threads on these pages.

 

It does seem that what we might hear from the upcoming report is confidence expressed that a significant warming is set to occur in response to the current NWP situation. This warming looks primed to occur around the turn of the month, or soon after.

 

This means that fading of the present -AO spike, as I suggested in my post yesterday (and expect towards months end) could well be occurring right at the time when activity on the stratosphere thread is peaking ever higher towards anticipation of something much greater and more significant for these Isles than the cyclonic wash-out that the 'interesting' macro pattern promises right now.

 

Such a fading of the polar heights, as the -AO state (temporarily) relaxes, is a classic precursor to an even stronger rebound in December, again as stated by me yesterday.

 

A very wet and frankly dismal November is on the cards for many of us, but sludge and muck in November might lead to ice capable of bearing a duck towards Christmas   .

 

[heath]

So pleased that the Model discussion thread is (generally) convinced that winter is over.  I just missed 1947 (except by witness stories) but remember 1962/3 and 1978/9 well.  If my failing memory serves me well no snowy winter has started in November - 2010 stopped at Christmas.  2009 is a rare one to start before Christmas.  Let the PV rage for a few weeks!

[Timmytour]

So pleased that the Model discussion thread is (generally) convinced that winter is over.  I just missed 1947 (except by witness stories) but remember 1962/3 and 1978/9 well.  If my failing memory serves me well no snowy winter has started in November - 2010 stopped at Christmas.  2009 is a rare one to start before Christmas.  Let the PV rage for a few weeks!

!981/2 started before Christmas.....I liked that one

[heath]

!981/2 started before Christmas.....I liked that one

Ahh - true - I was commuting between Leeds and Hull and it was tricky - but not so much after Christmas compared with '79. Some very cold ridges to Greenland though.