Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

[KyleHenry]

This is the 12z GFS at the problem level of 30mb, hefty split vortex and as I understand it the ECM follows suit and enhances the signal.

 

Things are about to get very interesting, very quickly..

NH_HGT_30mb_264.gif

 

Other height levels from same time stamp

 

1.gif2.gif3.gif4.gif5.gif6.gif

Very fast progression, ninja style. Tony are you seeing a central Arctic Ocean ridge forming if that's an impossible question to answer then ignore

[lorenzo]

Wish I had access to the full ECM data for this one Kyle, cannot answer that,  this looks like a considerable split, however not the perfect axis for us. Have messaged Ed so he doesn't miss out ! Caveat being the ECM may be off on one it's merry over-amped solutions, but with both the GFS and ECM advertising the signal, this is as close as at has come so far this season.

 

That wave 1 has backed a fragile vortex into a corner and the merest of W2 nudges has created a cascade. Will be really interested to see how the mechanics of this unwind.

[bluearmy]

the mean ecm 12z trop extended ens seem keen on a persistent upper ridge around svaalbard. in tandem with the alaskan chap, the trop should certainly be responsible for some wave 2 headed upwards

[lorenzo]

the mean ecm 12z trop extended ens seem keen on a persistent upper ridge around svaalbard. in tandem with the alaskan chap, the trop should certainly be responsible for some wave 2 headed upwards

 

Nick did you see the new additions from Dr Maue this evening, bonus ! We can now see the ECM the evening before Berlin..

[bluearmy]

Nick did you see the new additions from Dr Maue this evening, bonus ! We can now see the ECM the evening before Berlin..

 

not noticed yet tony but i have noticed the technical SSW on the 18z gfs run around day 12 !  looks like a reversal to me. actually, might need a second opinion. is it worth bothering? andrew - can you check the zonal charts at 10mb when they are available to see if the flow reverses please

 

thnx.

Edited December 23, 2014 by bluearmy

[Cloud 10]

If you thought the 12z was good......

 

[phil nw.]

Certainly a disruption/displacement of the core at 10hPa in the later frames.First time i have noticed that this season.

[Snowy L]

Looks like a proper split vortex on the GFS 18z

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2014122318/NH_HGT_10mb_384.gif

 

Will be interesting to see the Para strat temps as well as it looks like we have a precursor to an SSW split forming in the troposphere

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rpgfs1981.gif

Edited December 23, 2014 by Snowy L

[feb1991blizzard]

not noticed yet tony but i have noticed the technical SSW on the 18z gfs run around day 12 !  looks like a reversal to me. actually, might need a second opinion. is it worth bothering? andrew - can you check the zonal charts at 10mb when they are available to see if the flow reverses please

 

thnx.

 

It doesn't look quite a reversal to me, quite a split though.

 

 

Nick did you see the new additions from Dr Maue this evening, bonus ! We can now see the ECM the evening before Berlin..

 

 

Where can I find those please, is it Weatherbell by any chance?

[Mark Neal.]

It doesn't look quite a reversal to me, quite a split though.

 

 

 

 

Where can I find those please, is it Weatherbell by any chance?

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue 

[bluearmy]

actually, flicking through the NH profile on that run (trop), it shows a typical quick trop response to a SSW with a sudden sharp reversal in AO.  two things - one is that the reversal appears to start before the split in the upper strat becomes noticeable and two - the polar profile puts itself back together very quickly.  very strange developments. who is leading who in this dance ???

[EML Network]

wow !! that's got to be THE Chart of the winter so far, surely if this verify's the remainder of Winter would be fun and game for cold lovers ? 

 

[karyo]

wow !! that's got to be THE Chart of the winter so far, surely if this verify's the remainder of Winter would be fun and game for cold lovers ? 

 

It is brilliant but the GFS P doesn't want to know as it has a less significant warming and the vortex stays intact. Who to believe?

[bluearmy]

It is brilliant but the GFS P doesn't want to know as it has a less significant warming and the vortex stays intact. Who to believe?

Well I wouldn't be believing an 18z op run just yet karyo!

[KTtom]

Wow! Thats a good start to the day (GFS 00z). This should mix things up a bit and really play havoc with the forecasting models.....could it be the start of a ......(I won't say it!)

 

[Recretos]

What to say, finally my dear expected wave2 has emerged in its full glory, tho it is still just in the forecast.

 

Very close now.

 

[lorenzo]

A selection of D10 charts from Berlin.

 

W2 and zonal wind profile

 

 

10 and 30 plots

 

Vorticity shows the stretched vortex very well.

 

Step by Step, good that it is still there following the GFS 12 and 00z from this morning. As Nick pointed out, instant trop response visible. Let's see how this meanders to D 0.

 

 

[Paul123]

The split is also forecast in the netweather charts of today. Big change compared to the previous runs (except 18h yesterday).

 

I suppose the change is due to a transistion in the forecast of the troposphere, from a strong PV to a disturbed pattern with a high developing over Scandinavia.

 

 

 

 

[bluearmy]

Last two gfs controls have gone -5 AO !

in general, the ens are probably playing catch up and the parallel hasn't followed the normal yet. One thing I have noted over the past month is that the normal seems to have done better with upper strat forecasts than the parallel.

[feb1991blizzard]

Lets hope we see a bigger wedge of high heights splitting the segments even further apart on future runs.

 

 

EP Flux forecast chart starting to look more favourable as well.

 

Edited December 24, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[bluearmy]

Incidentally, courtesy of weatherbell, we now see that the 00z ECM run splits the strat vortex at 10hpa day 10. That would have had to wait till tomorrow morning to see before thus new feature appeared. Well done tony for pushing them to do this!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Lets hope we see a bigger wedge of high heights splitting the segments even further apart on future runs.

 

 

EP Flux forecast chart starting to look more favourable as well.

 

I think vitally we need the arrows to keep turning degrees , so the further to the right (poleward flux) the better . It aids the strat split and does us the world of good in terms of how much of an impact the warmings can have for mid lats.

[karyo]

Last two gfs controls have gone -5 AO !

in general, the ens are probably playing catch up and the parallel hasn't followed the normal yet. One thing I have noted over the past month is that the normal seems to have done better with upper strat forecasts than the parallel.

Yes, great to see the 0z GFS continue with yesterday's 18z! The parallel still doesn't follow but it is showing an improved picture compared to the 18z.

[chris55]

Plenty of strat interest over the last 24 hours, certainly looking good to my untrained eye.

[feb1991blizzard]

I think vitally we need the arrows to keep turning degrees , so the further to the right (poleward flux) the better . It aids the strat split and does us the world of good in terms of how much of an impact the warmings can have for mid lats.

 

Yes, I think it aids propagation from what I have read.

 

 

Last two gfs controls have gone -5 AO !

in general, the ens are probably playing catch up and the parallel hasn't followed the normal yet. One thing I have noted over the past month is that the normal seems to have done better with upper strat forecasts than the parallel.

 

I have noticed there can be a big discrepancy although I haven't done any verification analysis so didn't know if it was better or worse, It doesn't bode well for when the parallel becomes the op then, if it isn't an improvement on a vital part of the Atmosphere and one where its usually easier to model, that will surely have a knock on detrimental effect on tropospheric Northern latitude blocking scenarios that are not particularly well modelled as it is!

 

 

 

I think the 18z OP had a better ridge but good to get some consistency, the parallel wasn't actually a long way off a proper split at one point in the run at 30mb, it just strengthened the vortex again afterwards instead of splitting them