Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

[Catacol]

I did wonder why there was no mention of it here.

What's your point - do you expect an upgrade every run? Geopotential Wave 1 forecast for 17th was an upgrade on the 16th. 18th a downgrade on the 17th.

 

Overall signal for wave 1 warming in around a week's time consistent. 

 

Previous warming occurred as forecast even if we didnt get the overall vortex disruption asked for, but bang on cue we have tropospheric high pressure ridging to our N and NE.

 

If you want "massive blocking" to the north then I suggest a trip to Siberia.

[phil nw.]

Yesterdays ECM data still forecasting minor warmings so we should remain upbeat if looking for further cold spells like the one we are currently experiencing.

 

 

 

signs in the 10 day period that mean zonal winds will again reduce to less than 20mt/sec.

 

 

Continued forecasts of wave 1 and 2 action  so the vortex remains under attack

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=all&var=ha1&lng=eng

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=all&var=ha2&lng=eng

 

Ok nothing dramatic as yet where the PV will be ripped apart but enough signs going forward that it remains in a weaker state with chances of further transient Arctic ridges.

We at least have some chance of some more cold returning beyond the forecasted return of the westerlies,which will hopefully be relatively short this time.

[snowking]

GEFS pretty in line with Det and Control now on the warming, still expect some further ups and downs with this but EAMT lead Asian/Siberian warming has now been there consistently for the last couple of days - support starting to show for this at day 10 on the ECM Det too.

Similarly at day 10 both ECM and GFS have the vortex displaced almost entirely over to the Siberian side from 10-70mb, and on GFS at least that remains through to day 15 (obviously us muggles do not get to see the extended ECM EPS).

The 100mb profile looking a little different but the core of the vortex still significantly displaced. IF these forecasts turn out to be accurate I would be rather surprised if we escaped February without something of interest tropospherically

SK

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS pretty in line with Det and Control now on the warming, still expect some further ups and downs with this but EAMT lead Asian/Siberian warming has now been there consistently for the last couple of days - support starting to show for this at day 10 on the ECM Det too.

Similarly at day 10 both ECM and GFS have the vortex displaced almost entirely over to the Siberian side from 10-70mb, and on GFS at least that remains through to day 15 (obviously us muggles do not get to see the extended ECM EPS).

The 100mb profile looking a little different but the core of the vortex still significantly displaced. IF these forecasts turn out to be accurate I would be rather surprised if we escaped February without something of interest tropospherically

SK

 

What I have noticed is this displacement happens more or less before the significant warming starts, factoring this in, are you surprised about how its downwells quite quickly in to the mid to lower strat? and is there a danger that the warming could actually push the vortex back into an unfavourable position?

 

 

EDIT : it will be interesting to see if there is any kind of signal in EC32 clusters tonight, one would hope so.

Edited January 19, 2015 by feb1991blizzard

[snowking]

What I have noticed is this displacement happens more or less before the significant warming starts, factoring this in, are you surprised about how its downwells quite quickly in to the mid to lower strat? and is there a danger that the warming could actually push the vortex back into an unfavourable position?

 

 

EDIT : it will be interesting to see if there is any kind of signal in EC32 clusters tonight, one would hope so.

 

With how this winter has gone stratospherically (#dietSSW) I wouldn't like to make any definitive calls on the effects.

 

The displacement itself is geopotentially lead with very little thermal input. You can see the Wave 1 pushing the vortex across from the USA at 10mb below:

 

 

The thermal element to this in the day 10-15 period is difficult to call, but having it wondering around the edge of the surf zone of the displaced vortex, as shown below at 30mb, is by no means a bad thing. If we can get this temperature wave in to the heart of the vortex then we are likely to see a significant weakening of the stratospheric vortex, and the double whammy of a displaced, weakened vortex, especially with the location of the displacement, would be an overwhelmingly positive possibility.

 

 

Of course none of this offers any sort of guarantee as to what happens down below in the troposphere, other than you would expect a net weakening of the tropospheric vortex (or vortices) as zonal winds would likely plummet through the stratosphere.

 

All of the above paragraph is purely speculation it should be noted as these forecasts are barely in to the range of the ECM det. yet (displacement excepted), and as of yet we are not seeing too much evidence of a quick downwelling towards 100mb.

 

SK

Edited January 19, 2015 by snowking

[feb1991blizzard]

Thanks Snowking for the reply. Ian Fergusson has posted in the model thread and UKMO don't see any high latitude blocking in the next month although they stop short of ruling out an SSW in the next month as they only talk about the medium range.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82300-model-output-discussion-16th-jan-12z-onwards-smile-while-you-post/page-52#entry3131230

 

 

Meanwhile the GFS 18z strat charts still look reasonable for some cold zonality I would suggest.

[Duane S.]

Back on subject and zonal winds are forecast to be but a breeze through the mid Strat after a nice wind reversal over the pole...

Edited January 20, 2015 by Paul

[KyleHenry]

Back on subject and zonal winds are forecast to be but a breeze through the mid Strat after a nice wind reversal over the pole...

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East based QBO still present and hoping next wave sequence can make use of it before it goes .

How this next wave phase works out regarding the troposphere is a tricky one to call, once bitten twice shy. It's very complex at present to forecast evolution.

ECMWF has a trace signal at the outer limit of 240 hours showing at 10 hPa.

[mountain shadow]

-QBO doesn't appear to have provided any positive feedback in terms of a HLB on our side of the hemisphere as yet, i'm struggling to see why it would be of any significance now.

[chionomaniac]

-QBO doesn't appear to have provided any positive feedback in terms of a HLB on our side of the hemisphere as yet, i'm struggling to see why it would be of any significance now.

What? Because of 6 weeks of one winter? What a daft comment.

 

And perhaps we should ignore the SCE and SAI and TCA - becasuse if one winter doesn't go as expected we should bin the ideas that have stood up to the other years. Or perhaps MS, we should look again, when winter is over, and try and see what did control the patterns and try and learn from this - its called science....

[Snowman.]

-QBO doesn't appear to have provided any positive feedback in terms of a HLB on our side of the hemisphere as yet, i'm struggling to see why it would be of any significance now.

 

If this year was +QBO then it would be a lot worse...

[knocker]

What? Because of 6 weeks of one winter? What a daft comment.

 

And perhaps we should ignore the SCE and SAI and TCA - becasuse if one winter doesn't go as expected we should bin the ideas that have stood up to the other years. Or perhaps MS, we should look again, when winter is over, and try and see what did control the patterns and try and learn from this - its called science....

 

I don't know whether this is of interest, or relevant, but last year SSTs in parts of the Pacific were exceptional and had an impact on troposphere atmospheric dynamics. This article touches on the subject.

 

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/warming-pacific-drives-global-temperatures.html

[Weather-history]

Are there any analogues to show what happens when the stratospheric polar vortex is clearly displaced to the Siberian side? Both GFS and ECM are evident with this.

[Recretos]

Are there any analogues to show what happens when the stratospheric polar vortex is clearly displaced to the Siberian side? Both GFS and ECM are evident with this.

 

Well, I dont have any analogues, but I have something else. The full 16-day GFS animation. The usual rules apply: Top layer 10mb, mid layer 30mb, and bottom is 150mb. Color and 3D surface is Geopotential height. The animation is in full temporal resolution. The data files are quite huge so it took me a while. 

I will do a short interpretation after the video.

 

So just of fun note is this: Watch at around 26.1 on, how the heights in the ridge wave at 10mb and 30mb start to increase and embed around the vortex, like a mole going underground, bulging the heights up. Looks really cool, and especially from the Pacific perspective in the second part of the video, you can really see it there.

 

 

As for the brief interpretation: 

At the beginning you can see the shared elongation of the vortex via wave2 on all layers. And you can also see the connection of the wave 1 strat ridge with the tropospheric pacific ridge over N Pac. and W USA. That entire ridge starts shifting eastward and in the process it dispositions the strat vortex, with the troposphere core following soon after. Also in the process via wave response starts emerging an Atlantic ridge around 25.1, which seems to start quickly rising slightly on all layers, appearing as small bulging and violet coloring, creating a triangular patter shape.

 

 

After that tho, the above mentioned bulging of the heights starts (the mole analogy), first at 10mb and 30mb, and with some small delay later around 29.1 it appears on the 150mb, as pressure from an Atlantic ridge, really squeezing and sending a deep longwave trough into Europe. 

 

  

 

Bottom line: As these video always seem to emphasise, the relationship between the strat and the trop is never ever linear. And in this case the strat does seem to have the upper hand, and the first end net result of this dynamics is the deep trough over Europe, evident on both GFS and ECM. And this situation is not some normal model calculation that lingers for a run or two before disappearing. This is largely stratosphere driven in the process, giving more security and weight to the situation with this trough, tho of course there will still be changes, especially how and when exactly this "mole" ridging drives the trough. 

 

On a side note: I have never seen such type of height rises, a.k.a, "The mole rise" as I will call it. Lets hope this "mole rise" will gives something interesting down below. 

 

And the tropospheric 500mb charts (Under the ECM Licence, WMO-essential charts can be shared publicly):

The arrow is the Pac. ridge connecting up into the strat, and the M is our emerging Mole ridge.

 

 

What to say. My days of watching only instantweathermaps individual charts are almost over. The stratosphere-troposphere dynamics are so complicated that its time to bring the strat analysis to a new level, which I am trying to pioneer for a while now. 

And this situation is a good example why I am trying to emphasise that geopotential height are also very important, not only the temperature.

 

Regards.

 

P.S.: Dont forget to spread the word that the strat is trying to send a deep trough into Europe.

Edited January 21, 2015 by Recretos

[MattH]

Excellent Andrew, just excellent!...

 

Can't say much more than that to be honest. Despite still no major SSW, it would seem, given the displacement that it is at least trying to 'help' towards bringing cold the UK and parts of Europe as we start a new month. This deep troughing to the E and NE of the UK with potential ridging to the NW is not a random anom within the models I don't believe. I think, in the coming days it'll develop further. As ever at this time of year if you can pull a major section of the trop PV down to the E and NE of the UK then the flood gates open from the N and NW, a poor direction in December (usually) bu at this time of year, approaching the coldest point within the N Hem, then a N or NW'ly can do the business, especially if it is supported with such a cyclonic pattern as well.

 

Regards, Matt.

[Recretos]

 This deep troughing to the E and NE of the UK with potential ridging to the NW is not a random anom within the models I don't believe.

 

This is kinda the thing that interests me the most in this case. I would say that given the overall stratospheric "driver" and support, this situation should remain fairly stable in the forecasts, but of course that is as far as the longwave goes. As for the details and the specific cyclonic areas, that is to be determined over time. I do expect just the general patter to remain more or less fairly stable, despite being in the operational runs at T200+.

 

The situation is just simply different. This is not some tropospheric extension of a stable P.V. core, when model are trying to forecast which way the small amount of residual energy is going to go. These processes that are to happen, are massive energy movements across a very deep layer of the bottom atmosphere, and when the strat is in charge, the verification scores tend to increase. 

 

As always, time will tell. 

[KyleHenry]

Wow Recretos linear charts just don't cut it after viewing your 3D graphics on this Stratospheric wave one phase.

You just couldn't see the traversing of all levels upwards and downwards propagation so clearly.

Am i seeing this correctly is the GFS showing a Canadian warming event?

Edited January 21, 2015 by KyleHenry

[Gael_Force]

Wow Recretos linear charts just don't cut it after viewing your 3D graphics on this Stratospheric wave one phase.

You just couldn't see the traversing of all levels upwards and downwards propagation so clearly.

Am i seeing this correctly is the GFS showing a Canadian warming event?

 

This is what caught my attention too - they normally are seen in November and December and usually cold in the West of europe soon after. What would this be classed as since it will be February and if no technical SSW reversal occurs?

 

Edit to add: Recretos, you continue to surpass yourself with each new animation.

Edited January 21, 2015 by Gael_Force

[Recretos]

You cant have a canadian warming without warming, now can you? Its more of a matter of heights in this case, which makes it more personal between the trop-strat, than when temperatures are involved.

 

Appart from the the upper strat, this "mole event" is height driven almost entirely. 

 

 

 

Edit to add: Recretos, you continue to surpass yourself with each new animation.

 

 

Thanks, you need to learn how to walk, before you can run.

Edited January 21, 2015 by Recretos

[KyleHenry]

You cant have a canadian warming without warming, now can you? Its more of a matter of heights in this case, which makes it more personal between the trop-strat, than when temperatures are involved.

 

Appart from the the upper strat, this "mole event" is height driven almost entirely. 

 

 

 

Thanks, you need to learn how to walk, before you can run.

True, more study required.

Is it as logical as heights upwards and propagation downwards at Scandinavian region

[lorenzo]

Currently dialled into the Stratosphere - Troposphere Interaction webex presentations that are happening today. frustratingly the audio is not working !

[chionomaniac]

Currently dialled into the Stratosphere - Troposphere Interaction webex presentations that are happening today. frustratingly the audio is not working !

I was wondering if they will release a video of the presentation later.

[Gael_Force]

You cant have a canadian warming without warming, now can you? Its more of a matter of heights in this case, which makes it more personal between the trop-strat, than when temperatures are involved.

 

Appart from the the upper strat, this "mole event" is height driven almost entirely. 

 

 

 

 

Thanks, you need to learn how to walk, before you can run.

 

I thought the term Canadian warming was more about heights than temperature ie the heights in Canada displace the vortex into Siberia, well to the south of its usual home. The descriptions I have read focus on that rather than a big rise in temperature.

[feb1991blizzard]

Wave 2 upwelling?????  i'm confused but all the same cautiously optimistic, particularly after Ians post in the MOD thread.

 

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2015012212&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=372

[Recretos]

Since I am not at home these days, I cant provide any updates. But I will jump home in the morning after work (night shift) and plot the 00z GFS run to see where we stand. It takes around half an hour to render all the layers and all times once I load the datafiles, and it turns my RAM into liquid. 3GB is the very minimum.

It took me around two hours the other day to make this layout so I can now just change the input files with a new run and the rest is automatic.
I couldnt use the layout I use for reanalysis data, since ECM ERA data has parameters coded in a different way than GFS. I could only use the same outer grid.

If I wont be too sleepy I will give an interpretation in the morning, hoping the 00z wont be too much of an outlier.

 

EDIT 07:10am: My RAM wants to give out, since I am getting a memory error message. Too tired at the moment to try and resolve the issue. 

Edited January 23, 2015 by Recretos