Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS P continues to show a cool/wet N/W flow with-in the reliable, Further towards the end of the run shows possible retrogression. Still very skitty, But things are certainly on the move for the last 1/4 of November.. The uncertainty continues.

 

Edited November 6, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Mucka]

Very good 12z outputs so far!!!the undercutting has come out of nowhere!!!pretty much what steve murr eluded to earlier with heights being sucked from scandi towards the Iceland/Greenland region!!

 

Not quite from nowhere unless you only follow GFS.

It will be interesting to see if tomorrows anomaly charts have the GFS more in line with ECM and hopefully ECM will push stronger heights further West into Greenland.

If so we may be onto something but far too soon to assume we will get the undercut yet never mind the other pieces falling into place.

In the meanwhile it would be nice to see a stonking ECM and the UKMO come on board tomorrow as a progression of positive developments.

[Purga]

I think Mr murr will be along once all the 12z runs are out.

just a little too much oomph in the jet at the moment and the wavelengths not adjusted to winter status quite yet. This evolution in a couple weeks time would Look better re cold for here and I suspect we will have to wait until later in the month before the real mouthwatering stuff arrives on the nwp. In the meantime, watching the 'dry runs' is good enough for me!

 It may well be but the current more reliable timeframe NWP is very unsettled and stormy and any speculation on later developments is pure conjecture.

Edited November 6, 2014 by Polar Maritime
To remove off topic comment.

[Snowman.]

Weren't people saying much the same sort of stuff a year ago? It may well be but the current more reliable timeframe NWP is very unsettled and stormy and any speculation on later developments is pure conjecture.

 

 

He isn't talking about actually landing here he's talking about seeing something in the models if the CURRENT trend continues.

[gottolovethisweather]

Tis a busy thread so a quick analysis of the GFS (P) 12z in isolation from me, would suggest an unsettled period in the reliable with plenty of troughing nearby. Not overly mild nor cold to be fair, but in my patch I wouldn't expect to see many double-digit Maximums over the next seven to ten days, so on most occasions near average Daytime Temperatures for most is a fair assumption, apart from when raining when obviously Temps will be further depressed.

 

The positives ongoing are namely, the disrupted PV (still remains in this state, please correct me if I'm wrong here), the near record NH snow and ice cover and a NH Jet which wants to stay due South of the UK on the whole, often having a tendency to align in a NW to SE direction and on the whole is fairly tame beast, far unlike last Winter.

 

Should the rest of this evening's outputs follow up on the current forecasted GFS (P) profiling for next weekend (15th/16th November), I would suggest this as a timeframe to watch with interest for a potential Northerly incursion with perhaps the coldest, most wintry weather so far this Autumn.

 

Watch this space.

Edited November 6, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Polar Maritime]

Yes a continuing Meridional Jet looks very likely, And hopefully for some time yet.

 

 

[gottolovethisweather]

GEM is also very interesting as well, things are all coming together now...

 

Note the timeframe, same dates as I alluded to in my post above. That chart is a thing of beauty   and would love to see that verify, now we only need it to be present at t-24 hours.   GFS (P) and GEM on board, any more for any more. 

Edited November 6, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Captain Shortwave]

Certainly an interesting end to the GFS (P). Not your typical late Nov pattern....  Just for fun

 

I raise you that end of GFS FI chart with a GEM day 10 day chart

Just for fun though to be honest. Nice to see a few of the 12z operationals giving the pole a good kicking. 

Edited November 6, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Cheshire Freeze]

Tis a busy thread so a quick analysis of the GFS (P) 12z in isolation from me, would suggest an unsettled period in the reliable with plenty of troughing nearby. Not overly mild nor cold to be fair, but in my patch I wouldn't expect to see many double-digit Maximums over the next seven to ten days, so on most occasions near average Daytime Temperatures for most is a fair assumption, apart from when raining.

 

The positives ongoing are namely, the disrupted PV (still remains in this state, please correct me if I'm wrong here), the near record NH snow and ice cover and a NH Jet which wants to stay due South of the UK on the whole, often having a tendency to align in a NW to SE direction and on the whole is fairly tame beast, far unlike last Winter.

 

Should the rest of this evening's outputs follow up on the current forecasted GFS (P) profiling for next weekend (15th/16th November), I would suggest this as a timeframe to watch with interest for a potential Northerly incursion with perhaps the coldest, most wintry weather so far this Autumn.

 

Watch this space.

Looks very Nov 2009 to me...unsettled and wet in the vicinity of the UK but with blocking the order of the day from a N hemispheric viewpoint. Very interesting but can it be perpetuated?

[johnholmes]

this may be relevant but mods please move to winter thread if felt this is the wrong area.

latest ENSO official forecast for winter into spring for the northern hemisphere

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

[gottolovethisweather]

Looks very Nov 2009 to me...unsettled and wet in the vicinity of the UK but with blocking the order of the day from a N hemispheric viewpoint. Very interesting but can it be perpetuated?

 

Should we bank November 2009 as a pattern match and progression, votes please on a postcard. I'd accept it as from memory, didn't it bring some widespread snow before month end that year? Did bring some darn chilly days to boot at least at the end of November but was very wet overall.

[marksiwnc]

this may be relevant but mods please move to winter thread if felt this is the wrong area.

latest ENSO official forecast for winter into spring for the northern hemisphere

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

Can't see anything mate

Delete mods

Sorry

Edited November 6, 2014 by marksiwnc

[AWD]

Putting aside the longer term, potentially encouraging Arctic developments to our North and East, we look like seeing a more notable spell of unsettled, autumnal weather for the UK.

We have a steep thermal gradient, in association with an early season cold spell for Canada/The States, across the Eastern seaboard;

spawning some intense low pressure systems;

into the Jet Stream, across the northern Atlantic and into Western Europe;

However, as you can see by the above image (typical forecast position by this afternoons GFS model for mid November), we have a more southerly tracking Jet Stream than we may be used to at this time of year, thus the focal point of the wetter weather could be towards the SW of the country rather than the more typical NW constituents.

Here is this afternoons GFS projected accumulative rainfall amounts for the next week or so;

The west certainly seeing the majority of the rainfall. I'm going to predict that these rainfall accumulations may increase in the coming days model output too, I can see more rainfall falling than what the above chart is showing for my part of the country especially.

Even by mid November, we are seeing negative anomalies over or near the UK;

Although we are entering cuckoo land here, it's a consistent theme across the model output I have viewed in recent days.

Plenty of interest in the NWP for sure, for both the autumnal rain fan in the immediate future, and the colder, wintry fan in the much more longer term.

Edited November 6, 2014 by AWD

[bluearmy]

Should we bank November 2009 as a pattern match and progression, votes please on a postcard. I'd accept it as from memory, didn't it bring some widespread snow before month end that year? Did bring some darn chilly days to boot at least at the end of November but was very wet overall.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=10&month=11&hour=0&year=2009&map=4&mode=2

 

mid december onwards GTLW for the real fun

[SE Blizzards]

I raise you that end of GFS FI chart with a GEM day 10 day chart

Just for fun though to be honest. Nice to see a few of the 12z operationals giving the pole a good kicking. 

 

I raise you that GEM chart with this beauty from the control run.

 

 

Cold pool heading straight to the UK

 

 

Control run can be viewed here... 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=1

 

Good example of Scandinavian HP being tugged over to Greenland.

 

Now just need a nice ECM 12Z to wet the appetite further...

Edited November 6, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[Cloud 10]

I raise you that GEM chart with this beauty from the control run

 

 

 

I'll raise your raise with gefs number 17 with its off the scale negative AO.

 

 

 

Also the similarities between November 2009 and the projection for mid November this year are fairly decent.

 

[Panayiotis]

ECM looking much better compared to the 00z @120hrs! Notice the low with a more negative tilt, which is allowing heights to build towards Scandi..

Edited November 6, 2014 by Panayiotis

[Thunder Snow]

Could I ask one quick question, what's all the talk of a weak pv And how it's not like last year?

[Panayiotis]

Could I ask one quick question, what's all the talk of a weak pv And how it's not like last year?

The Polar Vortex (PV) is disorganized this year, its not in a spherical shape like last year:

This year:

Last year:

Edited November 6, 2014 by Panayiotis

[Continental Climate]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif Not a bad chart seems like there is some sort of agreement of pressure beginning to rise in the GIN which is always good to see.

 

One caveat is that the ukmo isnt quite on board yet http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Edited November 6, 2014 by Continental Climate

[bluearmy]

might take an interest in the fi ecm ens mean spreads later. resisted thus far but beginning to get an inkling they may be worth a view.

[nick sussex]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif Not a bad chart seems like there is some sort of agreement of pressure beginning to rise in the GIN which is always good to see.

 

One caveat is that the ukmo isnt quite on board yet http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Yes the UKMO blows up that low although it still has some pressure rising to the ne, the GFS and ECM look pretty similar. For the time being I think we can discount the UKMO, no support and I think likely to meet the shredder.

[bluearmy]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif Not a bad chart seems like there is some sort of agreement of pressure beginning to rise in the GIN which is always good to see.

 

One caveat is that the ukmo isnt quite on board yet http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

 

its there or thereabouts cc - not bad at all

[Ali1977]

ECM 240 may look very good, arctic high strengthening and cold air lining up near Svaalbaard ready so head SW

[Barry12]

Mid November onwards is going to be very interesting if charts like this verify