Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

[karlos1983]

UKMO @ +144 looks better to me. Our low seems to be slipping off the SE?

 

[Swave Snow]

UKMO @ +144 looks better to me. Our low seems to be slipping off the SE?

 

 

 

 

i get June 2014 when i check UKMO on meteociel, any ideas?

[The Eagle]

A lot of warm air making it's way in to Europe on both the GFS and UKMO.

 

 

The cold air well anchored north of Svalbard.

[Yarmy]

i get June 2014 when i check UKMO on meteociel, any ideas?

 

It's June up to T96 then the current run thereafter.

[karlos1983]

A lot of warm air making it's way in to Europe on both the GFS and UKMO.

 

 

The cold air well anchored north of Svalbard.

 

That may well be, but for me it's all about getting the heights in the right places now, hopefully the cold uppers will follow.

[mountain shadow]

A lot of warm air making it's way in to Europe on both the GFS and UKMO.

 

 

The cold air well anchored north of Svalbard.

Hopefully short term pain, for longer term gain. The warmer air pushing North feeds the WAA, hopefully when it comes down on the CAA, we will be on the cold side of the block. Need to see more heights into Greenland.

[karlos1983]

GFS (P) certainly an improvement on the 06z

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

For anyone concerning themselves with warm air pumping into Europe or an abating of the -AO into FI, I think you should re-read Tamara's excellent earlier post. If you look at the archives, many of the classic winters were preceded by a 'near miss' in November. Her post explains the reasoning very well.

[frosty ground]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.gif

This run show a renewed PV and highs being shunted of east from as early as day 5

[Winter Frost]

Why is there an inversion in Denmark but not here? 

[Mucka]

The best evening output so far is probably the GFS (p)

 

 

UKMO isn't great IMO and GFS 12 op is pretty poor but all only relevant to the prospects of any early cold shot

Edited November 10, 2014 by Mucka

[gottolovethisweather]

UKMO @ +144 looks better to me. Our low seems to be slipping off the SE?

 

 

Dare I say it, but I think the timeframe as per above of say 15th November through to at least the early part of the following week is almost NAILED ON (75%-80% probability at least) now for an Easterly flow of sorts. I for one will be interested to see how things develop into the final ten days of November and right now I wouldn't even think about taking the synoptic patterns as shown in the various suites as a done deal at that kind of range. Having said that, I remain hopeful for fascinating second half of November as long as the PV and the NH Jet play ball.

 

I've been reviewing the GFS 12z's in recent days alongside the other models of course and the trend is most definitely there for a finite change in surface synoptics, come next weekend. Today's 12z is still very encouraging if you ask me. Picking up on the specific details is rather fruitless at the moment and if I were pick holes in everything, I would like to see the t850s cooler than forecast. I still want to see the UKMO 6-15 dayer reflect these differences though as they currently don't look that inspiring.

Edited November 10, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[mountain shadow]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.gif

This run show a renewed PV and highs being shunted of east from as early as day 5

??

 

Suggest you go to learning page and read up on the Polar Vortex. You certainly cannot get an idea of where it;s at from that view. The Northern Hemisphere view shows a different story.

[frosty ground]

??

 

Suggest you go to learning page and read up on the Polar Vortex. You certainly cannot get an idea of where it;s at from that view. The Northern Hemisphere view shows a different story.

..

I said it started at that time frame.......

By this time frame heights are lowing across the pole

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014111012/gfsnh-0-180.png?12?12

By the end we end up with MLB with a high close to the UK to allow a continental feed which gradually lowers temps........

 

Edited November 10, 2014 by phil nw.
removed impolite comment.

[Snowy L]

GFS op brings in the Canada vortex into play and completely ruins the block. This is a lot more delayed in the GFS Para with some good heights in the West Atlantic/East Canada

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rpgfs1681.gif

 

Though unfortunately the vortex is seen again just 24 hours later, having completely displaced that high

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rpgfs1921.gif

 

I think the parallel is being too progressive in bringing in that canadian vortex lobe there, no way can such a change happen in less than a day

Edited November 10, 2014 by Snowy L

[The Eagle]

GEM is today's get out of jail card

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php

[Cheshire Freeze]

Dare I say it, but I think the timeframe as per above of say 15th November through to at least the early part of the following week is almost NAILED ON (75%-80% probability at least) now for an Easterly flow of sorts. I for one will be interested to see how things develop into the final ten days of November and right now but don't even think about taking the synoptic patterns shown in the various suites as a done deal at that kind of range. Having said that, I remain hopeful for fascinating second half of November as long as the PV and the NH Jet play ball.

I've been reviewing the GFS 12z's in recent days alongside the other models of course and the trend is most definitely there for a finite change in surface synoptics, come next weekend. Today's 12z is still very encouraging if you ask me. Picking up on the specific details is rather fruitless at the moment and if I were pick holes in everything, I would like to see the t850s cooler than forecast. I still want to see the UKMO 6-15 dayer reflect these differences though as they currently don't look that inspiring.

We're already at the stage where the foundations have been laid for conditions 4-5 weeks from now. In all honesty a reflex action back to a more neutral or +AO was near enough a certainty as we head towards the back end of November- no issues there from me. It's what happens during December that interests me as the first response to this initial stratospheric feedback loop will most likely dictate the tone of the heart of our winter. By the middle of December we'll probably have an inkling of whether we'll reach our desired destination or whether the long range models will be vindicated. Whatever happens, model watching will be a compulsion as the meteorological winter approaches.

Patience is required here, personally I'm glad we probably won't get a November freeze as very often it sets the tone for something different during winter proper (most probably due to shifting seasonal wavelengths).

Edited November 10, 2014 by CreweCold

[karlos1983]

Dare I say it, but I think the timeframe as per above of say 15th November through to at least the early part of the following week is almost NAILED ON (75%-80% probability at least) now for an Easterly flow of sorts. I for one will be interested to see how things develop into the final ten days of November and right now I wouldn't even think about taking the synoptic patterns as shown in the various suites as a done deal at that kind of range. Having said that, I remain hopeful for fascinating second half of November as long as the PV and the NH Jet play ball.

 

I've been reviewing the GFS 12z's in recent days alongside the other models of course and the trend is most definitely there for a finite change in surface synoptics, come next weekend. Today's 12z is still very encouraging if you ask me. Picking up on the specific details is rather fruitless at the moment and if I were pick holes in everything, I would like to see the t850s cooler than forecast. I still want to see the UKMO 6-15 dayer reflect these differences though as they currently don't look that inspiring.

Hi gtltw

 

I'm not concerned at all by the lack of uppers, I have a lot of confidence in this winter season being completely different to last year, following the Strat forum, Eurasia snow cover, state of the PV etc. the fact we are showing these charts now, in November is extremely encouraging. Even if they weren't as they are, I still wouldn't be that concerned.

 

It's all good!

[gottolovethisweather]

We're already at the stage where the foundations have been laid for conditions 4-5 weeks from now. In all honesty a reflex action back to a more neutral or +AO was near enough a certainty as we head towards the back end of November- no issues there from me. It's what happens during December that interests me as the first response to this initial stratospheric feedback loop will most likely dictate the tone of the heart of our winter. By the middle of December we'll probably have an inkling of whether we'll reach our desired destination or whether the long range models will be vindicated. Whatever happens, model watching will be a compulsion as the meteorological winter approaches.

 

Thanks for your insight CC, given the current outputs are we heading for +AO or even a neutral one though? I didn't think we were. Personally I actually favour a front loaded winter with an early spell of entrenched cold weather. Like I said though, I admire your input and yes, the stratosphere workings (not that I understand them fully) are where it's at for the longer range predictions. Actually, this type of discussion should truly be in another thread.

Edited November 10, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[mountain shadow]

I said it started at that time frame.......

By this time frame heights are lowing across the pole

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014111012/gfsnh-0-180.png?12?12

By the end we end up with MLB with a high close to the UK to allow a continental feed which gradually lowers temps........

 

Then post a chart which shows what you mean, not what doesn't. Didn't mean to be patronising. I read your post, and saw a chart which didn't make sense to what you said.

Edited November 10, 2014 by phil nw.
removed personal comments

[gottolovethisweather]

Hi gtltw

 

I'm not concerned at all by the lack of uppers, I have a lot of confidence in this winter season being completely different to last year, following the Strat forum, Eurasia snow cover, state of the PV etc. the fact we are showing these charts now, in November is extremely encouraging. Even if they weren't as they are, I still wouldn't be that concerned.

 

It's all good!

 

Agreed, my reference to the t850s was simply trying to temper any expectations of huge snowdrifts and the like.     Still plenty of interest though and synoptically, or historically shall we say, any Easterly at this time of season would be a rare event too but it is looking likely if a rather tame beast. 

Edited November 10, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Cheshire Freeze]

Thanks for your insight CC, given the current outputs are we heading for +AO or even a neutral one though? Personally I actually favour a front loaded winter with an early spell of entrenched cold weather. Like I said though, I admire your input and yes, the stratosphere workings (not that I understand them fully) are where it's at for the longer range predictions. Anyway, this discussion is really for another thread.

Tamara's post earlier pretty much outlines exactly where we'll head in NWP terms within the next week plus. A lessening of the -AO is almost a certainty IMO and this is based on what we've seen historically and hints within the extended ensemble suites. It's nothing to be particularly worried about however. The current N hemispheric set up has lit the torch paper so to speak. All that is required now is a bit of patience and to sit back over the next month and watch it unfold.

[gottolovethisweather]

MODEL OUTPUT DISCUSSION please, no further quarrelling guys n gals.

Edited November 10, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Mucka]

I know Fergie brought up the rainfall potential yesterday but although SW will get a soaking over the next 24/48h I think later in the week is where we may see some more widespread problems with potential flooding - Friday looks like being a dismal day, particularly in the West.

The reason I suggest that is because the ground will already be soaked in many areas and the trough to our SW will be come reinvigorated with a shot of cold air.

 

 

This may well lead to more prolonged,widespread and heavy rainfall than that we have over the next 24/48h

[Purga]

Nice Spanish plume from GFS 12z

By jingo those uppers are warm and if the sun comes out the surface should be as well - shorts again!