Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

[LomondSnowstorm]

I suspect you would know this but I personally worry about the given temperature profiles at that range over your locale or even the broader UK, I would concentrate on the NH view, more especially in any developments across Northern Europe and also over in the North Pacific region.

Absolutely (would be easier with the NH meteociel not being down), just thought it was interesting that it was picking up on a localised cold pool at this stage given that the flow generally looks relatively mild for an easterly. Certainly too far away to be taken that seriously but nice to see some blue on the 850s at least 

Anyway, if we can avoid shortwave drama over southern Greenland it looks like we could end up in an arms race between the Atlantic fronts and Arctic air to the north/northeast. 

[Purga]

So the ECM easterly 's gone up in smoke then, not surprising.

Looking wet windy and mild for most of the time

May get a bit of snow over the Scottish peaks with a little packet of sub -5 850 hPa uppers.

Even at 240hrs the mild air still reigns supreme over the UK with the cold Arctic air remaining too far north to do us any good - apart from a bug tease.

 

N Hemisphere view looks good from a proflie point of view but it just doesn't delivery to our part of the world.

Probably will put Canada into an early freezer and then lay the foundations for a mass of frigid air to power up the jet - Déjà vu ?

Edited November 9, 2014 by Purga

[Summer Sun]

This potential colder spell is understandably getting a lot of attention but we can't overlook some heavy rain this coming week for the south west of England and Wales certainly the potential for some flooding

 

[SteveB]

Yeah 48 hour totals don't look too worrisome though of course localised flooding cannot be ruled out.

 

 

True, but there is more rain later on in the week, especially towards the weekend - and while nothing to concerning at the moment we all know that if this were to continue then there could be trouble down the line.

 

Anyway, what am I on about!  this won't continue because we have an Easterly on the way ...... right            

Edited November 9, 2014 by SteveB

[terrier]

So the ECM easterly has gone. Seems like this model has a habit of leading us up the garden path. Looks unsettled with heavy rain been the main issue.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes as i alluded to earlier, Some very wet weather to come with-in the reliable time frame, With flooding likely due to a cut off Low just to the West of the UK, Driving in Atlantic fronts and feeling cool.

 

Edited November 9, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[mushymanrob]

Mushy, those anomaly charts show above average heights to the North of the Uk though, do they not?. This would what we should expect if we want a Northerly or Easterly?In terms of the ECM consistency, I have never known the ECM to be wrong after so many runs showing the same thing. Yes, the ECM throws up the odd BOOM chart, but normally a one run thing.As ever, more runs required.

Yes they do, thats not in doubt. My point is that the ecm has no support from the anomaly charts or gfs for that northerly. They areclose to allowing an easterly last time i looked. But even that isnt a given for cold, as the 12z gfs uppers show. Sorry i can post charts, on a tablet. An easterly is likely if the anomaly charts change, and a southeasterly is most likely. The severity of the cold though is far from certain.

[ANYWEATHER]

The Gfs at 192 hrs and the ecm at 192hrs, Ecm has a perfect start for cold coming in from the East, gfs has none of it! Its such a fickle synoptic situation given this time of year....

Edited November 9, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[carinthian]

Well, I for one still like the ECM, there still remains a threat of an easterly past 144hour. Generally they still show a undercutting pattern. A week a go, heights were high over Euroland in the forecasts, now a lower pressure pattern is being shown.. At the moment the change of seasons is still in a state of flux and December is still a long time away for the prog charts. I think we are still on course for more seasonal temperatures, even on the colder side now being shown on most models.

 C

[Banbury]

It is quite pleasing to see this set up, even if it doesn't materialise into much ( wasted if it did ) hopefully we will see a repeating pattern as we go through December and January.

 

All in all a much better start to this winter than last years

Edited November 9, 2014 by Banbury

[Hocus Pocus]

This is off topic but relevant ( I think anyway ), I suggest some read snowkings post over on the Strat thread where he goes into great detail regarding the volatile output we may see over the coming days/weeks aka what we are seeing sort of now. Please delete mods if you feel it's inappropriate.

[gottolovethisweather]

Absolutely (would be easier with the NH meteociel not being down), just thought it was interesting that it was picking up on a localised cold pool at this stage given that the flow generally looks relatively mild for an easterly. Certainly too far away to be taken that seriously but nice to see some blue on the 850s at least 

Anyway, if we can avoid shortwave drama over southern Greenland it looks like we could end up in an arms race between the Atlantic fronts and Arctic air to the north/northeast. 

 

Ah I see, all very positive to be fair, more especially if the details continue to firm up nearer the time.

[Banbury]

This is off topic but relevant ( I think anyway ), I suggest some read snowkings post over on the Strat thread where he goes into great detail regarding the volatile output we may see over the coming days/weeks aka what we are seeing sort of now. Please delete mods if you feel it's inappropriate.

 

Good post and tells the bigger picture

[IDO]

Yes the ECM d7-10 charts in DJF with a colder continent and a cold pool close by would be very promising. Not so sure in the current Synoptics. However the bigger picture on the ECM NH remains; with a Massive polar high, and it will be interesting to see how this develops...

Edited November 9, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Man With Beard]

I think a message can get lost here - just because it isn't quite cold enough for snow doesn't mean it won't be cold - I think if this verifies, we'll find it gives 6C max away from the coasts- in any rain that will feel absolutely biting

[bluearmy]

put the kids to bed and looking again at the ecm 12z run NH on meteociel - wow you're a tough crowd to please !

[Banbury]

Yes the ECM d7-10 charts in DJF with a colder continent and a cold pool close by would be very promising. Not so sure in the current Synoptics. However the bigger picture on the ECM NH remains; with a Massive polar high, and it will be interesting to see how this develops...

 

Spot on, a bit too early for me IMO and wasted synoptics , I feel.

put the kids to bed and looking again at the ecm 12z run NH on meteociel - wow you're a tough crowd to please !

 

Valid , it is a decent run and after last years woeful set of charts one can only be pleased with the runs that we have seen over the last day or so

[Purga]

Consistantly above average 850's ENS again and very wet

No sign of any trend to cold at all.

Even in the North the picture is pretty much the same with maybe a few more colder runs but not many

[bluearmy]

the ecm ens mean is a step forward from the 00z with scotland coming into the mean easterly flow and sub zero uppers. the 850 spreads will be interesting.

 

at day 6, the mean has separated the trough in the west atlantic and the inland runner is shown on the mean.

 

i think SM will be more than happy with that wrt his general thoughts. tbh, we're not far from a snow event over scotland (away from the eastern side where the north sea will raise the surface temps) in about ten days time.  the pendulum swung a little away this morning on the ecm ens but it has come back this evening.

Edited November 9, 2014 by bluearmy

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It's very much key focus of attention Phil, at least in my region. Surprised it's not getting greater mention... should be, ahead of possible seasonably colder spell.

Something that was flagged on here by a few and anticipated a wee while ago.  [Tamara's big post as one example.

 

I think again we step forward to general building block, what does seem to theme though is that deep cold hit won't be there initially and I think a further attack is building for later Ie round 2. 

 

 

BFTP

[LomondSnowstorm]

ECM +168:

ECM 3 days ago:

2 days ago:

Yesterday:

 

Not sure I understand the talk of downgrades or vanishing easterlies - if anything we've seen some significant upgrades and adjustments westwards over the last few days. 

If you look at the GFS parallel from 3 days ago as well, when it wasn't even clear that there would be an easterly flow of any sort, you can see how much the picture has improved:

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I was looking N. Russia at T240 BFTP. Am I being over enthusiastic? Perhaps indications of would have been more appropriate.

To reply Knocker, I for one when hear speak of an organised PV I anticipate it to be sat in and around Greenland pumping a flat and constant SW'ly flow across the Atlantic with northern blocking totally devoid.  PV can sit across Russia anytime as far as I'm concerned.

 

BFTP

[Barry12]

I certainly don't mind there being a strong organized polar vortex if it's sat over the UK   

[Mucka]

put the kids to bed and looking again at the ecm 12z run NH on meteociel - wow you're a tough crowd to please !

 

It is just one run of course but taking this run isolation for the purpose of analysis;

 

It looks better on the NH view but not great for me though I guess it depends on the context in which we our viewing it. If we are looking at it from a big picture long term gain perspective then yeah that is a nice chart for sure but if we are looking at it from the perspective of recent ECM runs and the chance of cold hitting the UK between day 10 and 14 then it really isn't that promising. Diminishing heights to the N and NW with low heights just W of Greenland and the Atlantic already encroaching though admittedly on a nice southerly track.

What I think would happen from there is heights over Greenland to sink south into the Atlantic meaning we would need at least one more bite at the cherry to bring in nov cold. 

I think it is a matter of perspective though and if you had offered me this chart anytime last winter I would of bitten your hand off. 

 

 

Personally there is no way I am disappointed with today's output overall, I think it has been heading in the right direction.

Edited November 9, 2014 by Mucka

[Froze were the Days]

put the kids to bed and looking again at the ecm 12z run NH on meteociel - wow you're a tough crowd to please !

 

Problem is that a few on here seem to be bench marking November 2010 and what happened thereafter...in my record keeping a rare occurrence, think 1985, a period in 1993...and that's 3 very cold episodes in 31 years. The end of Nov 2010 was exceptional.