Far North Of England - Weather Chat

[Airedalejoe]

As always, optimism abounds in this thread!

Some of you must be permanently disappointed as our average winter weather isn't severe cold and a snow fest. I'm 51 years old and apart from a handful of winters, low ground say <150mts,  more often than not doesn't see lots of lying snow, thats just the way it is and always has been. When its usually so marginal then that degree or so drop in temperature as you climb upwards can and does make all the difference, just like this last spell.

Even at 70mts where I live we've seen a fair bit of falling snow courtesy of the north sea but no great depth though several separate thin coverings, typical for our local unless we get a true severe spell.

It's going to get cold, no doubt, and in my opinion we will see snow falling eventually.

[Cloud 10]

As always, optimism abounds in this thread!

Some of you must be permanently disappointed as our average winter weather isn't severe cold and a snow fest. I'm 51 years old and apart from a handful of winters, low ground say <150mts,  more often than not doesn't see lots of lying snow, thats just the way it is and always has been. When its usually so marginal then that degree or so drop in temperature as you climb upwards can and does make all the difference, just like this last spell.

Even at 70mts where I live we've seen a fair bit of falling snow courtesy of the north sea but no great depth though several separate thin coverings, typical for our local unless we get a true severe spell.

It's going to get cold, no doubt, and in my opinion we will see snow falling eventually.

 

 

JP is on the fence,which is really ramping things up.

[Geordiesnow]

Need I say any more.....

 

 

Are you really going to despair of missing on what is just effectively is a mere light covering for some parts?

 

Its still a while until the detail is resolved and then you got the issue with the upper air temps, low thicknesses or not, the ECM does not exactly looks "cold" in the important 96-144 hour period. 

 

Still time for things to change so lets wait and see what develops. 

[doctor32]

Think everyone in here should give it till tuesday night at least, by then we will have a better understanding of how this forthcoming cold spell will develop and more importantly where we may see snow. I suspect us in the north east may have to wait till the weekend to see more meaningful snow and no doubt the Meto will be placing plenty of warnings for most of the uk at some point this week including a winter cold weather alert.

[JP1972]

JP is on the fence,which is really ramping things up.

 

Yes and I've got splinters up me jacksee!

 

Am I reading the charts hopelessly wrong or are they showing a NE'ly element to the isobars next weekend?

 

But just to reiterate, I think I'll stay on the fence until at least Tuesday night/Wednesday.

[JP1972]

Someone from Durham had 3 inch last week, thought it was you, even had some photos up

 

Kindly keep this kind of filth to yourself.

 

Many thanks.

[NickR]

Kindly keep this kind of filth to yourself.

 

Many thanks.

LOL

[JP1972]

LOL!

 

Just been out in the car, thermometer says 11c. It'll be a shock to the system this next weekend in terms of windchill. In fact the windchill might be the only noticeable element to the next cold spell for us, but it sure will feel quite raw.

 

I actually like Northerlies, they are always quite biting. Not sure we'll do well in terms of snow showers but I suppose it's a case of wait and see from here on in.

[geordiekev]

No.

 

Most we've had was a covering. less than 1cm. Where did you get the idea that Durham-Newc had had 3 inches? I'm not one of those people that lives on a hill.

Wondering why my ear was burning

To be honest I've stopped looking at snow charts. The last 2 weeks have proved that charts, warnings, forecasts up to 1 hr ahead were useless in calling 3 of the 6 days that I had snow. Admittedly there was a yellow warning on the worst/best day for the whole of the n/e coast but none of the rolling news forecasted the event over my location up to T0 yet got 10cm and was a shocker and only just melted yesterday.

For that reason I think it's too far away to get the flow directions pinned down and hopefully shortwaves popping up along the coasts. Defo think it's our best chance but not ruling out more reloads from the displaced Azores high.

[geordiekev]

Kindly keep this kind of filth to yourself.

 

Many thanks.

Sorry JP, for those that missed them

Actually think I might have jinxed next week capers by ordering some textable gloves. Apologies in advance.

[JP1972]

Sorry JP, for those that missed them

Actually think I might have jinxed next week capers by ordering some textable gloves. Apologies in advance.

 

Textable Gloves?

 

You mean you can get gloves for texting nowadays?

 

I do struggle to keep up being in my early 40's but I can text without gloves

[4wd]

Not as daft as it sounds, good to be able to operate touchscreens on phone or camera with gloves on - and they are reasonably warm
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00NR9NRWE

[JP1972]

Not as daft as it sounds, good to be able to operate touchscreens on phone or camera with gloves on - and they are reasonably warm

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00NR9NRWE

 

£2.75 would suggest that these are just George mens gloves

[geordiekev]

Not as daft as it sounds, good to be able to operate touchscreens on phone or camera with gloves on - and they are reasonably warm

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00NR9NRWE

Aye, that's why, last week had to keep taking gloves off to take pic then put them back on to make snow balls for the hound. I might be northern but still need gloves for getting hands on.

[geordiekev]

£2.75 would suggest that these are just George mens gloves

By George, wouldn't dream of it. Nothing but the finest Italian (I did make this comment without knowing and was going to quip that they were Chinese, but blow me over just checked details and they are Italian) Happy Days just need that darn snow now.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/B00NJF555S?me=&ref=olp_product_details

Edited January 25, 2015 by geordiekev

[4wd]

Still looks mainly dry this week, for the NE and not all that cold.

[Summer Sun]

The wind chill will make it feel bitter later this week and into early Feb

 

Edited January 26, 2015 by Summer Sun

[NL]

I can't understand why SM has said poor charts for longevity of this colder spell compared to previous runs as the GFS ensembles I posted yesterday clearly shows the 'colder' period ending around 4/5 Feb. The latest GFS ensemble (00z) does show the period after the 5th trending slightly 'warmer' than yesterdays but with scatter like that I'd not like to call what the conditions will be like thereafter. There's 2-3 members now calling sub -10℃ 850hpa which weren't present on yesterdays ensemble.

[Summer Sun]

All of the NE is under the snow warning now

 

Issued at: 1036 on Mon 26 Jan 2015

Valid from: 0900 on Wed 28 Jan 2015

Valid to: 2355 on Thu 29 Jan 2015

 

A cold and increasingly showery northwesterly flow is expected to develop during Wednesday and last through Thursday. Accumulating snow is likely away from windward coastal districts, especially overnight. Across Northern England 3-6 cm could accumulate especially over high ground. Over Scotland and Northern Ireland 5-10 cm is likely even at low levels, with more than 10 cm over high ground. Strong and gusty winds will likely accompany snow showers, and lead to significantly reduced visibility at times, difficult driving conditions and temporary blizzards over high ground. The public should be aware of the potential for disruption to travel.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

An active cold front is expected to push southeast across the UK during Wednesday, introducing an increasingly cold and unstable air mass. Showers will become frequent and heavy, falling as snow and driven well inland by strong to gale force northwesterly winds.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1422403200&regionName=ne

 

A cold weather alert is also in force

 

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

 

Issued at: 1045 on Mon 26 Jan 2015

 

There is a 80% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 1200 on Wednesday and 1200 on Sunday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

 

A cold front is expected to cross the U.K. during Wednesday, introducing much colder conditions to central and northern England in particular. Very strong winds will accentuate the cold. Snow showers are likely in most areas, but especially the north west where significant accumulations are likely to build up, especially in hilly areas.

 

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

[NickR]

To my untrained eye it seems like there are 2 lows being modelled to scoot down teh E Coast - Sat and Tues. Sat is due to bring rain/sleet to lower levels, but Tues has snow.. I'm assuming this is because the air feed then is much colder, whereas on Sat it is not cold enough for snow.

[Geordiesnow]

To my untrained eye it seems like there are 2 lows being modelled to scoot down teh E Coast - Sat and Tues. Sat is due to bring rain/sleet to lower levels, but Tues has snow.. I'm assuming this is because the air feed then is much colder, whereas on Sat it is not cold enough for snow.

 

That is probably correct plus having a winds coming in off the sea won't help matters in this respect. 

 

Still time for this detail to detail, for better or worse, the UKMO still looks the most promising for something more colder with any milder sectors being small.

[sorepaw1]

I'm happy about the potential for this Saturday given my north east location. But also worried the NHS won't be able to cope with this cold spell as my local Hospital is turning non urgent operations away.and A+E is at breaking point back on topic.i would say Saturday looks epic for snow along the eastern side of the uk imo.

[NickR]

GFS 12z - that low on Thursday night is well positioned atm for some decent snow in our region.

[NickR]

...though then the cold air mixes out and it ends in rain :/

[Geordiesnow]

As I said in the model thread, I rather the trough to be further East so it reduces the milder sector which probably will occur now whatever happens, I know about the great debate regarding thicknesses and all that but even so it is still too mild for snow. 

 

Would like the Northerly flow to be more stright proper Northerly or an NNE'ly, an NNW'ly tends to show the wishbone effect that many people say but you be surprised how far inland showers can get in a straight Northerly. Still time for this to alter so Im not too worried about this yet although the odds do seem to against of a proper straight Northerly.