Scotland - Weather Chat

[Paul]

The referendum may have kept Scotland as part of Britain, but independence is back again on here, ready for winter to begin!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

They may take oor economic and fiscal levers, but they'll never take...oor regional thread!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Ok, LSS needs to gives us some positives on this sort of pants.

 

[Ravelin]

Ok, LSS needs to gives us some positives on this sort of pants.

 

Well it may not look great but it is on a downwards trend, at least until the spread increases around the 20th. After that it looks like just about anything is possible.

[Big Innes Madori]

They may take oor economic and fiscal levers, but they'll never take...oor regional thread!

Ahh its guid tae be back hame eh SS

 

Big Innes

[Big Innes Madori]

Ok, LSS needs to gives us some positives on this sort of pants.

 

Mmm!  OK all the talk at the moment seems to be about how the background signals are looking good for something akin to a winter in these parts and we all hope that this can come to fruition        

However, I think after the debacle last winter we need to take more notice of what's happening over the pond?

Even at this early stage in November some parts of the USA are having cauld n' snaw and as we are always downstream of them, we know that this can have a major impact on what happens here.    

 

Sure lets be looking at the OPI, SAI etc,etc, but as always it is far easier for the yanks to predict and get their actual weather correct, so let us keep an eye on the USA and factor this in to that what we are likely to receive amen    

 

Big still aching fae last year Innes 

[LomondSnowstorm]

Ok, LSS needs to gives us some positives on this sort of pants.

 

 

Ok, well first off, this isn't quite as set in stone as it seems - there's been a fair bit of discussion from pros at the NOAA which suggests that perhaps the cold plunge over the states will be further west than currently modelled, and if so it might extend our (admittedly feeble) easterly by at least a few more days and then divert the jet further south (the closest to that on the current output is the UKMO):

 

If we don't manage to get that, and the cold air off the eastern states throws the jet at us, we're still likely to end up with some colder northwesterly incursions in the medium term, and probably even a greater chance of snow than with some kind of half hearted easterly/HP setup where the cold pool never really arrives.

The ECM shows this scenario pretty well, with the vortex in a pretty poor place (albeit not too bad a profile over the Arctic or Svalbard for the longer term) but with the jet tracking far enough south that with a bit of amplification we could end up seeing some transient snowfalls by the end of November:

 

Aside from that, which does seem, frankly, pretty pish compared to some of the charts that were showing a few days ago, my main positives come from the fact that I really wasn't banking on a cold November and the expectation was that it would turn more Atlantic dominated by the start of December anyway (so, yaay, LRF isn't bust yet  ), and, actually, there's very little correlation between a snowy November and a cold winter - last November for example had a reasonable cold spell towards the back end and that certainly didn't help us out much. Anyway, the signs I was really looking out for were these:

• Something that looked like the height anomaly for very -OPI/+SAI Novembers - because both of these indices give us the possibility of stonking winters then we really want them to be good predictors this winter like they, unfortunately, were last winter. It would also make seasonal forecasting much easier if we could basically work out the Northern Hemispheric pattern for winter by the end of October (although I'm not sure the MoD would appreciate the breakthrough after they spent millions on the MO's new supercomputer  )
• Strat warmings of some kind - remember if we had some kind of early warming then the pool of fundamentally similar winters goes from fairly cold to ramptastic
• the vortex keeping a generally low profile, even if not in a particularly favourable place for us

On the first count, we're looking in decent shape at the moment this:

compared to these and given the first third of November looked pretty good too, with Atlantic trough, Scandi high and the Aleutian low I reckon we'll end up pretty close to where we 'should' be for November.

On the second count, we've already had some significant wave 1 activity at the top of the strat, but the interesting thing is the next projected warming - an East Asian warming (I'm almost certain this is Steve Murr's 'secret' factor for making sure his usual winter ramp isn't too over the top this time), which looks likely to disrupt the stratospheric vortex even further (that chart is the warming near its peak temperature but it starts in the reliable timeframe and this is the new fangled all singing and dancing GFS which should be able to handle the stratosphere much better):

 

As Simon Keeling who used to be on weatheronline mentioned on his video blog today, it has a similar look to late November 2009's stratosphere. Not only that, but there are hints towards the end of both the ECM and the GFS parallel that the 'squeezing' of the vortex (wave 1 activity) taking place on the chart above may well be accompanied by some 'splitting' (wave 2 activity), which could lead to a full scale early SSW, as the SAI creator suggested might happen on his blog last week, and at that point all hell may well break loose for mid December:

And finally the vortex. If you think the latter stages of the ECM and GFS are bad, take a look at what we had by this stage last year:

Now, while we are expecting some sort of vortex strengthening before we (hopefully) see the stratosphere work its magic, it's unlikely to be anything like as strong or as persistent as the one in the chart above, which was by that point so well established there was very little that could be done to derail it.

So overall, in spite of the shorter term outlook not being especially brilliant, things are going pretty much as well as we could hope for at this stage if you're looking for a cold winter. 

A quick point on the US cold to finish up with - it might look superficially similar to last winter but it's actually quite different. Last winter, the US was cold because of a rare occurrence where the vortex was displaced off the pole and into Eastern Canada:

However, for the most part the vortex, as expected remained strong and compacted in spite of being off the pole, and even then we were far closer than most people realise to tapping into some very cold air to the east. We don't usually benefit from this kind of thing as even when the vortex is strong and displaced directly to our north we still have the Atlantic to moderate the cold, but the closest equivalent to it I guess would be January 1984. The cold at the moment, however, is a result of high latitude blocking, mostly an incredibly strong Alaskan ridge forming in response to the huge storm in the Aleutians last week, which is basically their equivalent of a Greenland High-northerly setup, and is a more typical winter cold pattern both for them and us. While in the short term the cold there does look likely to power up the jet longer term it's not that much of a worry since the vortex is on such a shoogly peg, and also because, even if, as many forecasters expect, the jet remains strong, it's likely to be deflected far enough south during major blocking events that we stay on the colder side of the jet.

There are numerous examples of this - the winters of the late 70s for example were cold for the US causing strong but southerly tracking jets which left much of Europe on the warm side but were generally pretty cold and very snowy here, and 2009/10 was also a cold winter for the eastern states, moreso the southeast. 

In fact, late winter 1947, which is never considered for being an analogue winter because there's insufficient data, was also colder than average for the eastern US:

Anyway, it's good to be back, although a bit sad to part ways with our pals from 'up north' south of the border and especially BleakMidwinter, who's actually moving (but will of course be welcome to post in here anytime ).

LS

[Zenarcher]

Wet and windy for most places in Scotland today with severe gales in some places. It should dry up during the evening though.

[Ravelin]

Just as well we have LS to keep our spirits up. Grey, breezy but dry here so far his morning. 10.8mm of rain in Kemnay yesterday so not that awful. Temp was 10.something (I wasn't paying that much attention). In fact a quick check of the weather station data for Dyce show that in the last 2 days it hit a min of 9.2C and a max of 11.5C on a depressingly flat temperature graph.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Just as well we have LS to keep our spirits up. Grey, breezy but dry here so far his morning. 10.8mm of rain in Kemnay yesterday so not that awful. Temp was 10.something (I wasn't paying that much attention). In fact a quick check of the weather station data for Dyce show that in the last 2 days it hit a min of 9.2C and a max of 11.5C on a depressingly flat temperature graph.

 

Slight improvement.

 

'Getting maybe a bit cooler. Possibly a wee bit nippy at times. Grey as Aberdeen granite'.

 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

10C the high today. Love how it started pouring when I finished supported study at school, typical if you ask me

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Quite a lot of spikes being shown on the ensemble, a few extremes but definitely one to watch.

 

 

[NorthernRab]

Jeezo it is hoorava blowie out there!

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Is it just me or is the model thread already clutching at straws in the search for cold?

[NorthernRab]

Is it just me or is the model thread already clutching at straws in the search for cold?

yes and it's not even winter!

[Guest]

Is it just me or is the model thread already clutching at straws in the search for cold?

 

Have there been any "Winter's Over" posts yet? It's never too early for winter to be over

[Ravelin]

Have there been any "Winter's Over" posts yet? It's never too early for winter to be over

 

Of course there have! As someone over there said, it's akin to writing off the whole summer in early May. oh, and if I see 'gut feeling' posted one more time I'm going to scream.

 

Well we continue the theme from the last few days here this morning. It's cloudy, windy and mild, but not quite raining again, not yet anyway. That's now 3 days where the weather station at Dyce has recorded a temperature that hasn't strayed out of the range of 9-11C day or night.

 

It's not looking like a weekend to be outside around here and I hope the kids football is called off tomorrow as it'll be nothing but a mud bath if it isn't.

[mistyqueen]

Ah Yes, time for straw clutching and sacrificing your children to the Great God Snow! Really mild up here again, with a wee breeze flung in to keep the cobwebs at bay. 14.5c outside, and the same inside! I look forward to further hysteria from the reds tops over the next few weeks.

[Benvironment]

Filthy filthy weather.  Filthy!  And my mood isn't improved by receiving this photo from my pal in Ontario this afternoon

 

[snowy owl]

Phew rain is gone! My chooks are gonna need wellies if this weather keeps up. Still much patience on warmings, waves and weather before we have any clue what forthcoming week or two will bring.

Loving the Ontario pic if only to drool over lol

[over_the_rainbow]

It was blowing a hoolie all day today, and quite a bit of rain too. Temp was around the 10C mark yesterday and today but dropped this evening to 5C. Hoping tomorrow might be drier and brighter! Im not braving the model thread tonight. 

[edo]

Its OK OTR all quiet on the western front...everything a little further west and lots of building blocks in place but low confidence in volatile models would appear to be the common themes....on balance I would say I almost hope for the current theme to continue with no serious cold in November with the pieces falling into place for a mid December serious start to winter....that would tie in with being very festive and give some of the tasty looking LRFs a real chance of happening..but won't stop me getting excited at first prospect of a november snowflake.

[Guest]

I've only flicked through the ECM this morning, we're a long way from cold.

 

This could be good though as it would satisfy the BWI (Blizten's Winter Indicator) which quite clearly states that any snow in the first three weeks of November is very wrong

[Northernlights]

Cool start today at 2c with ground frost after  a very wet evening yesterday. Muck spread and ploughed in  this last week ready for the winter frost to heal the damage done by the harvest machinery tracks after "Bertha"

[lorenzo]

Nice foggy start here, chilly, low sun, atmosphere completely still. Fine Autumn Day.

 

Thought I would grab this image from Cloud 10 post in Model Thread, hidden among the ensembles at a ridiculous range so, but very easy on the eye. 

 

Beast of a Northerly and most of the cold pool on our side of the Hemisphere - got to love GFS low res output for throwing up everyone's hopes and dreams -Haha !