Interview Judah Cohen

[sebastiaan1973]

Judah Cohen is one of the world's leading scientists in winter forecast. In 1999 he and Entekhabi demonstrated a strong statistical relationship between Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE) anomalies in the fall and the Arctic Oscillation in winter, later on he found a strong correlation between Eurasian snow cover advance and winter AO. Nowadays he is Director of Seasonal Forecasting at AER and still publishing lot's of articles. For the Dutch organisation VWK we conducted an interview with him. You can find the English written interview overhere:

http://www.vwkweb.nl/index.php?page=537&sl=1

[4wd]

Here is their forecast for this winter

( http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp )

http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/images/model_degC_NH.jpg

[10 Days Away]

Thanks for sharing this. 

[chionomaniac]

Great to see this finally online. Brilliant interview with a lot of common sense. Thanks sebastiaan.

[bluearmy]

He's unhappy with the persistent nw Siberian vortex segment. The modelling of this is inconsistent over the next two weeks so we wait and see if there is an anomolous response this year to the oct SAI. so far, it appears to be the case.

[Paul123]

Judah Cohen is one of the world's leading scientists in winter forecast. In 1999 he and Entekhabi demonstrated a strong statistical relationship between Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE) anomalies in the fall and the Arctic Oscillation in winter, later on he found a strong correlation between Eurasian snow cover advance and winter AO. Nowadays he is Director of Seasonal Forecasting at AER and still publishing lot's of articles. For the Dutch organisation VWK we conducted an interview with him. You can find the English written interview overhere:

http://www.vwkweb.nl/index.php?page=537&sl=1

 

 

This year July Sebastiaan and I contacted Judah for conducting an interview with him, in which he kindly agreed. The 22th of August we received the answers to the questions we submitted. The latter 4 questions have been posed (and answered) this thursday and friday respectively. 

[Paul123]

He's unhappy with the persistent nw Siberian vortex segment. The modelling of this is inconsistent over the next two weeks so we wait and see if there is an anomolous response this year to the oct SAI. so far, it appears to be the case.

 

At his blog http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation he gives his current view on the winter 2014/15.  

 

From his summary:

 

'Confidence in an average negative AO state for the upcoming winter remains high given the robust troposphere stratosphere coupling observed and predicted. The atmospheric response to snow cover so far is mostly consistent with high snow cover which favors increased energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere followed by a weakening of the polar vortex.'

 

He holds firm to his forecast.

 

Judah Cohen goes for a really cold winter for the most of Europe. The reliability of his forecasting for Europe is shown at http://www.vwkweb.nl/index.php?page=Forum&articleid=138&reference=ref222926&threadpage=11, where hindcasts and forecasts from 2002 onwards have been posted (see also 'The Seasonal Forecast Thread', page 32).

Edited November 29, 2014 by Paul123

[sebastiaan1973]

Thanks Chio, it was a pleasure interviewing Judah, such a nice person.