Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

[swfc]

Already subtle changes on the 12z at 108 hrs in the atlantic!!Looks a smoother run as the small low as for the time being vanished and less ridging from the med

Edited December 18, 2014 by swfc

[shaky]

Massive change at 120 hours!! Gone is that low near the northwest of the uk from the last 2 runs and the gfs has reverted back to what it was showing on the 12z run yesterday! ! Lovely blocking going into greenland on this run!!

edit:in my opinion the 2 runs are looking much better up to 120 hours!! Smoother heights into greenland and trough incoming from the north! !

Edited December 18, 2014 by shaky

[Winter Cold]

Shows what i know lol, GFS (old) looks as flat as a pancake so far in European view up to 23rd compared to 6z. Surely we should have been seeing signed of amplification by then??

 

EDIT: Im watching it on Meteoceil so a bit behind i think, but still the 6z is more wavy as the 12z overwriting it...

Edited December 18, 2014 by Winter Cold

[IDO]

Yes the GFS op has a flatter upstream earlier in the run so is similar to the GFS P from this morning (06z):

 

12z op 06z op

 

It will be nice if we can get unity between the op & P.

Edited December 18, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[SMU]

At 132 the upstream pattern over Canada is much more amplified for better sustainable blocking. Unfortunately the IDO post does not show this.....

 

All eyes on the atlantic shortwave......

S

[Ali1977]

Is this looking like a downgrade or an upgrade for cold then??

[John Snow]

Is this looking like a downgrade or an upgrade for cold then??

Upgrade in the longer term for blocking

[shaky]

At 132 the upstream pattern over Canada is much more amplified for better sustainable blocking. Unfortunately the IDO post does not show this.....

 

All eyes on the atlantic shortwave......

S

steve the 12zs are looking brilliant so far compared to the last 2 runs!! Yup all eyes dowm on that shortwave! !

[festivalking]

Is this looking like a downgrade or an upgrade for cold then??

 

Lets wait till the run is complete

[Banbury]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121812/gfsnh-0-150.png?12

 

Could possibly end up with the HP to the West sitting over the UK

[LomondSnowstorm]

The 6Z did look a bit off trying to push the pattern further north at such short range. GFS (P) bring a shallow cold pool over all of us by early Christmas Eve with showers turning wintry with a bit of elevation:

 

[IDO]

Is this looking like a downgrade or an upgrade for cold then??

 

The GFS op is a downgrade on the initial amplification, no WAA from the Euro upper ridge: 

 

 06z: 

 

See what the second WAA does, it follows behind the Atlantic shortwave...

 

The P tries to keep the first wave of WAA going: 

Edited December 18, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Banbury]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121812/gfsnh-0-156.png?12

Looks to me as though the HP to the West will block any cold air trying to get South

[swfc]

Atlantic low at 162 hrs looks a ball breaker!!!!

[The Eagle]

Set up reasonably well at 162 hrs. Should get there.

[frosty ground]

The GFS op is a downgrade on the initial amplification, no WAA from the Euro upper ridge: 

 

gfs-0-150.png  06z: gfs-0-156 (2).png

 

See what the second WAA does, it follows behind the Atlantic shortwave...

 

The P tries to keep the first wave of WAA going: gfs-0-138 (1).png

Those Charts are still for the 24th......... your reading to much into it minor changes.

[IDO]

Those Charts are still for the 24th......... your reading to much into it minor changes.

 

The WAA from those two ridges are what pumps up the Greenland ridge, without them the pattern will be flatter and the colder uppers will be delayed at least.

 

eg. Christmas day 12z:   06z: 

 

P still looks good at D7: 

Edited December 18, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[frosty ground]

The WAA from those two ridges are what pumps up the Greenland ridge, without them the pattern will be flatter and the colder uppers will be delayed at least.

 

eg. Christmas day 12z: gfs-1-174.png  06z: gfs-1-180.png

Minor Changes which one should expect at this range, West based -NAO setting up....... Could end up in South Westerly s......

Edited December 18, 2014 by frosty ground

[SMU]

Good UKMO

 

in line with the GFS (p)

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014121812/UN144-21.GIF?18-17

 

No shortwave drama, all set for cold NW / N winds for Xmas day- post that chart there is a 24 hour window for a white Christmas from 156-180 on the UKMO

 

S

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I must be living in some parallel universe when i see panicking negative comments about the latest GFS run.

I mean seriously wtf is wrong with this below chart!!!! lol, Cos it sure as hell looks ok to me.

[frosty ground]

GFS (P) not overly different from the 06Z run thou

[Backtrack]

I must be living in some parallel universe when i see panicking negative comments about the latest GFS run.

I mean seriously wtf is wrong with this below chart!!!! lol, Cos it sure as hell looks ok to me.

gfsnh-0-150.png

 

That's the Parallel, the OP is the center of discussion right now, which isn't great compared  to yesterday's runs.

Edited December 18, 2014 by Backtrack

[frosty ground]

I must be living in some parallel universe when i see panicking negative comments about the latest GFS run.

I mean seriously wtf is wrong with this below chart!!!! lol, Cos it sure as hell looks ok to me.

gfsnh-0-150.png

That's the Parallel Run..... apples and Pears

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

That's the Parallel, the OP is the center of discussion right now, which isn't great compared  to yesterday's runs.

Why use the old GFS when the GFS P is the upgraded version soon to become live?

Edited December 18, 2014 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Polar Maritime]

Would be nice if some stepped back and thought a little before posting. Let's keep discussion friendly please ☺

Thanks PM

Edited December 18, 2014 by Polar Maritime