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Model Output Discussion; into 2015


martthefart
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    It will be interesting to see if it tallies with my general thoughts from the current output.  I am thinking JMA are close to the mark:

     

    post-14819-0-48227500-1419690621_thumb.p

    Edited by Nick L
    Deleted quote removed
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    Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

    Can we all just act like adults? Please? Posts are going to keep disappearing and if you can't abide by the forum guidelines you may find your posting liberties restricted.

     

    Back to the models.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

     

    The 8-10 day means are unusual. You would expect them to be the other way round!

     

    post-14819-0-52310800-1419691906_thumb.g

    Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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    Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

    The 8-10 day means are unusual. You would expect them to be the other way round!

    attachicon.giftest8.gif

    This is one of the reasons I don't necessarily see the doom and gloom that some others have been predicting for the first half of January.

    We can usually expect the GFS to be the most zonal, and although that mean chart is hardly full of blocking, the operationals have been occasionally playing around with shallow highs to the N of the UK. As both TEITS and bluearmy both mentioned in the earlier thread, this can lead to some cold conditions if other cards fall for us.

    Edited by Long haul to mild
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    The 8-10 day means are unusual. You would expect them to be the other way round!

     

    attachicon.giftest8.gif

    The Euros have been consistently the more Atlantic progressive of the models. The UKMO/ECM are probably the most mobile at day 6.

    Looking at the GFS anomaly, we still have low heights to our south and a neutral surface pressure north of this. Could we possibly get a wedge of heights to build to our north east and bring cold in from the east. Given the upstream pattern this looks like being the only feasible way of delivering something more significant than transient polar maritime incursions.

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

    For those that have been reading the strat thread and the suggestions re the PV then its going to be difficult to develop any meaningful block.

     

    Although we do see some splitting of the PV one chunk is expected to set up in ne Canada which will fire up the jet and send low pressure into the UK.

     

    At the moment the possible uncertainty is really what the angle of the jet will be into the UK which of course makes a big difference to temperatures and snow chances.

     

    If you look at the mean zonal winds from last nights ECM a case can be made for some high pressure cell towards the pole:

     

    post-1206-0-65048400-1419692808_thumb.gi

     

    You can see there some reversal of the zonal flow towards the polar region, this will act to force the jet southwards as pressure builds there so a full on zonal mild attack seems unlikely at present, more average/colder interludes.

     

    A feature that I alluded to on the last thread was whether we might see some interaction with low pressure developing over the USA and phasing with that PV chunk, this can help pull some of this further nw and can help develop more dig south of the jet near the UK, although we don't have a strong block over Greenland the pressure rises near the pole could possibly help disrupt  the troughing with a possible shortwave ejecting and heading se.

     

    post-1206-0-73892600-1419693317_thumb.pn

     

    Cold hopes for the UK will increase and decrease relative to how far east the PV chunk sets up, so further west better, further east less so, and of course the amplitude of the pattern upstream which will effect shortwave/PV interaction.

     

    Essentially from a cold perspective you're trying to squeeze out the best from a pattern where although there are some positives you don't really have all the pieces of the puzzle fitting together.

     

     

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Kippax, Leeds, Yorkshire 44m (144ft) asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather Patterns
  • Location: Kippax, Leeds, Yorkshire 44m (144ft) asl.

    A Couple of FI charts to keep your chins up. 

    post-19256-0-61517600-1419693662_thumb.p

    post-19256-0-44575500-1419693673_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight

    Afternoon all, have just observed the latest operational runs for the week:

     

    Monday to Wednesday:

     

     days look to be clear and fine with cirus clouds aplenty and looks to be frosty for all overnight, except the far southwest, with some of the frost reluctant to lift the further north and east you are and of course over the high ground where there is also a possibility of some freezing fog. There is a risk of quite severe frosts making conditions quite treacherous on the roads. 

     

    Temps during the day can be expected between 2-5c widely and 7-9c in the far south west. Over night temps will drop off very quickly and will see temps fall between -1c to - 4c widely and would expect to see locally a -5-7c in the country side away from coasts and the further north and east you are.

     

    The Far north west of Scotland may see the odd shower, wintry over the higher ground, however these will be light and isolated. Where showers do form here and clears it will be come very icy.  

     

    Thursday and Friday:

     

    as the Atlantic try's to push back in you can expect to see temps try to rise widely 4-8c during the day with fronts trying to push in any precipitation will be mainly light and patchy as it comes through. in any clearer spells at night its will be expected 1-3c. One thing to note is that that as the Atlantic does try to push in the air behind is still cool to cold so expect to see wintry precipitation over high ground to the north and north west.

     

    The position of the high is key to temps and moisture which will effect our temps and cloud cover drastically. Im very reluctant to put any confidence in forecast beyond 5 days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The Euros have been consistently the more Atlantic progressive of the models. The UKMO/ECM are probably the most mobile at day 6.

    Looking at the GFS anomaly, we still have low heights to our south and a neutral surface pressure north of this. Could we possibly get a wedge of heights to build to our north east and bring cold in from the east. Given the upstream pattern this looks like being the only feasible way of delivering something more significant than transient polar maritime incursions.

     

    Yes the D7 chart where a wedge of HP develops to the UK's west is the sympathetic reaction to the Alaskan Ridge amplifying the upstream as the trough digs into the US:

     

    post-14819-0-30724900-1419693742_thumb.p

     

    Usually you would expect a more pronounced Atlantic ridge, even if was a toppler. However we find at that time the Canadian PV lobe is just too strong to allow anything significant. Yesterday GEM tried to make more of it, but we are running out of time now for that to verify:

     

    post-14819-0-80664100-1419694033_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

    I actually think there's too much false optimism in this thread at the minute. I took two days off model watching over Christmas and upon checking the models yesterday evening I was genuinely shocked at how poor the outlook being advertised is.

     

    First day of 2015...

     

    ECM1-120.GIF?27-12

     

    That's as poor of a chart as you could wish to see in the heart of winter.

     

    As long as we see HP keep up its residence to the S of the UK we'll keep seeing charts of this ilk...with perhaps short lived pm incursions for the N. We need a whole scale pattern change and we need it soon if we're to see anything like a 'cold hearted winter'. Posting charts at 300+ hours out showing pm incursions is fruitless.

    It's certainly hard to find much joy in the outputs at present, hence the frequent dipping into FI to find crumbs of comfort. Maybe we are looking for a pot of gold when there really isn't one at the moment.

    However, on the other hand, some of the "winter's over" posts that have been clogging up this thread of late are pathetic in the extreme. The weather frequently makes fools of those who try to proclaim so far ahead and I for one will be pleased to see these merchants of schadenfreude silenced with a good cold spell that appears from nowhere about 7-8 days out, as so often happens in this country.

    If we don't have some optimism, we will turn into these "glass completely smashed" types and this thread would be a grim place indeed!

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom

    I may well be slightly over pretentious in saying this but considering the models didn't pick up this drop low until Tuesday, it shows me that this Atlantic onslaught may be over done. I realize the deep cold going into the states is concerning but I've already noticed this pacific high responsible is starting to wane and shift further north with each run (precursor to a greeny/scandi link up, who knows?) . I'm only amateur at chart reading so if my analysis is wrong please let me know :)

    Edited by CanadaAl
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    Posted
  • Location: suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: deep snow/warm sunshine
  • Location: suffolk

    You've cherry picked one chart at the transitional phase between the next Pm incursion and suggested that is the dominant pattern. How is the transitional phase the dominant pattern?

    Literally the next few slides show the PM incursions.

    We will eventually be entering a pattern similar to the start of December.

    Only this time the colder SST will aid wintry potential.

    problem being that PM incursions are pretty rubbish for most! We are just looking for min 3 day proper cold to get some sledging in but at the moment there is nothing on the horizon and anything that looks good just gets blown away very quickly. I agree with Crewe there has been way to much optimism and hope casting sorry but that's the truth
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    You've cherry picked one chart at the transitional phase between the next Pm incursion and suggested that is the dominant pattern. How is the transitional phase the dominant pattern?

    Literally the next few slides show the PM incursions.

    We will eventually be entering a pattern similar to the start of December.

    Only this time the colder SST will aid wintry potential.

     

     

    Dress it up all you like. Polar maritime shots (temporary ones at that) will be no good for the majority....obviously if you live in the Pennines, Dales, Scotland etc you may be OK. The was not cherry picked for any other reason than it's 5 days out (edge of reliable) and the first day of January. Anything after that is less likely to happen (even these mythical pm incursions). What I can't see however is any sign of a pattern flip!

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Well looking outside here with5-6 inch of snow the atlantic reving up seems miles away!anyway lets hope the projected wnw winds bring something wintry.also tamaras post as ever does show the way hopefully.uto

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: London Waterloo 0m/ Leeds Bradford Airport 200m
  • Location: London Waterloo 0m/ Leeds Bradford Airport 200m

    Dress it up all you like. Polar maritime shots (temporary ones at that) will be no good for the majority....obviously if you live in the Pennines, Dales, Scotland etc you may be OK. The was not cherry picked for any other reason than it's 5 days out (edge of reliable) and the first day of January. Anything after that is less likely to happen (even these mythical pm incursions). What I can't see however is any sign of a pattern flip!

    Regardless of whether a PM incursion is fruitful or not the chart you posted was indicative of mild south westerlies, fronts straddling western parts of the uk. If you've decided not to take into account the output past five days then your point regarding a poor start to winter stands but to ignore output T144 onwards doesn't make sense.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

    Why are some people disheartened? If the GFS is to be believed in fi (of course if you are deranged) then it shows low pressure systems gradually tracking more and more south with a chance of snow across the Midlands northwards. 

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