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Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted (edited)

Thats probably just the 12z ECM run. They are, of course, concentrating on their massive Nor'easter! 

ahh yes i see, read it wrong at first, just letting people know when it is out rather than an update to the model itself, never mind, cheers

Edited by bradythemole
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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

Ignore GEM 850's there is a known fault whereby they are modelled much higher than they should be.

Actually GEM is really a bit of cannon fodder model these days.

 

The GEM is the worst model out there for 850 temps.

 

post-2839-0-78693000-1422294450_thumb.pn

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Eugene Accomplished

Eugene

Posted
Posted

Ignore GEM 850's there is a known fault whereby they are modelled much higher than they should be.

Actually GEM is really a bit of cannon fodder model these days.

 

GFS short ensembles SE England

 

graphe3_1000_292_123___.gifgraphe6_1000_292_123___.gif

 

NW England

 

graphe3_1000_232_36___.gifgraphe6_1000_232_36___.gif

 

Ignore that the Op is higher than the mean above - it always is for some reason.

 

 

Yes GEM is a temperamental model, this morning it was the best model for cold, I wonder if Summer Sun pointed this out, not sure wasn't here.

 

GFS 12Z is great almost throughout for me finishing with anticylonic weather, don't care about temps just want a prolonged dry period.

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Wednesday's cold plunge just coming into range on Euro4

 

15012812_2612.gif

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

Wednesday's cold plunge just coming into range on Euro4

 

15012812_2612.gif

Yes and the Euro4 brings in even colder 850's.

post-9615-0-35394600-1422295191_thumb.gi

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Let's remember that a model isn't good because of the cold output it shows!

Fwiw, GEM is a good model for picking out a new nuance in the 6/10 day period but the problem is working out when it's relevant!

And yes, it has a problem with uppers which are not continental sourced.

Nick s, - just looking at the gefs and spreads and I'm not convinced that the ECM spread at days 8/10 isn't reflecting clustering of the more amplified ridge moving west to east?

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted

A couple of posts which added nothing to discussion on the models have been moved here

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-201415/

 

Please keep posts about the charts or else they may well disappear! 

 

Cheers all.

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stratty Aficionado

stratty

Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
Posted (edited)

Yes and the Euro4 brings in even colder 850's.

attachicon.gifeuro41.gif

Just seen BBC weather and said 10-11C still for down south Wednesday and quote about temps 'not too bad still' for down south?! yikes!

Edited by stratty
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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

GFS looking great on the 12z, after this mornings run (00z didnt see the 6z) this is a nice step forward re colder conditions persisting beyond the weekend!!

 

Rtavn1741.gif

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Incredible consistency between UKMO and ECM at 144.

 

UN144-21.GIF?26-18 ECH1-144.GIF?26-0

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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted

That shortwave south of Greenland at 144 UKMO is on ECM 144 too. Shortwave drops southwards to our west at 168.

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

ECM also looking good, the little low in the Atlantic zips south east with the ridge and trough interacting favourable!

 

ECH1-168.GIF?26-0

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

ECM day 7

ECM1-168.GIF?26-0

That low drops through the west of Ireland, the rest of the UKMO remains under the north/north westerly flow with further snow showers. A much more amplified run with low heights in the Scandi trough being re-enforced. 

Day 8 is fantastic, low heights over France with a north easterly developing.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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sorepaw1 Rising Star

sorepaw1

Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
Posted

Just seen BBC weather and said 10-11C still for down south Wednesday and quote about temps 'not too bad still' for down south?! yikes!

After T+48 hrs is when you nice folk down south will see the showers of sleet and snow.if I lived down south I wouldn't be disappointed by what the current models are showing I think for those who prefer winters weather will see at least 3cm even to lower levels by Friday night, Margate and Kent areas look good for heavier showers by Saturday,.

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

Just seen BBC weather and said 10-11C still for down south Wednesday and quote about temps 'not too bad still' for down south?! yikes!

 

This post from earlier should help the explain the reasoning behind Wednesday's developing situation.  :good:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82366-model-output-discussion-23rd-jan-12z-onwards/?p=3140319

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted (edited)

mmm what the ECM doing here, it has the shortwave in the same area as the UKMO at 144hrs then at 168hrs drops it south-west allowing the ridge to push much further north.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015012612/ECH1-168.GIF?26-0

 

Will be interesting to see where this goes.

 

Everything ends up further north on this run lets hope its the start of a trend. As Nick Sussex says is looking like this shortwave developing at 144hrs will be the key to the longevity of this cold spell.

 

Plenty of snow chances between now and then to keep an eye on.

Edited by seabreeze86
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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

I think the overriding signal from the ops this evening is that the general pattern is not in the mood to be taken out and flattened by a pesky little Atlantic shortwave!! Good runs this tonight :)


mmm what the ECM doing here, it has the shortwave in the same area as the UKMO at 144hrs then at 168hrs drops it south-west allowing the ridge to push much further north.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015012612/ECH1-168.GIF?26-0

 

Will be interesting to see where this goes.

 

 

 

South East lol :) and more south than east!!

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted

Just seen BBC weather and said 10-11C still for down south Wednesday and quote about temps 'not too bad still' for down south?! yikes!

 

That is only until lunchtime I would have thought. Dew Points plummet from 5 to -3 during day.

 

15012812_2612.gif

15012815_2612.gif

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Cracking chart at 192, lots of potential under cold uppers.  So much better than this mornings runs.  

 

ECH1-192.GIF?26-0

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

It's great to see the ECM adding a bit more amplification to the pattern at T168hrs. A bit more would be welcome! Its very close to the UKMO solution at T144hrs and I think now this shortwave is looking like the crucial development in terms of track.

 

Where it goes will determine the chances of extending the cold.

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Popular Post
Posted

Take note everyone the GFS was yet again much colder than the GEFS mean but the control follows this.

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20150126/12/t850Cambridgeshire.png

 

Along with the UKMO/ECM every indication that this cold spell could be more prolonged and turn even colder into next week.

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stratty Aficionado

stratty

Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
Posted

This post from earlier should help the explain the reasoning behind Wednesday's developing situation.  :good:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82366-model-output-discussion-23rd-jan-12z-onwards/?p=3140319

 

....but wouldn't you show the later change of temps on the chart, rather than leave them up and say 'not too bad for the south' ?  lol

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