Southeast England & East Anglia - Weather Chat >> 1st Feb Onwards

[Kent Blizzard]

Daniel* the GFS DPs seem more favourable, I guess it will depends on how far Inland  the juice travels.

[Daniel*]

Those dew points are almost certainly flawed on the euro4! ! Just done see how we have positive dew points when every other parameter is perfect for snowfall wet bulb, thickness, 850s and temps!!

Hi shaky I agree yet they still mention rain/sleet showers in the forecasts? god help me lol.

[mackerel sky]

One thing is very clear to me. If the band of precip does develop through the wash during the night then it will need to be of moderate intensity to fall as snow. If this is light then it will more likely be rain/sleet.

 

The main problem with this cold spell is upper temps have generally been around -6 to -7C. Now I always use -10C as a benchmark and this is especially true as the flow has been NNE/NE,ly. Personally I have done better than expected considering the synoptic pattern, upper temps but as I said many days prior to the cold spell it was never going to be a classic.

 

Finally I read someone say on here that they have given up and shall return in November. This is madness in my opinion especially as +384 takes us to the 20th Feb. Once we get to end of Feb/early March ice days become difficult to achieve but there is no reason why a cold spell with -15C upper temps cannot occur over the next 2 weeks. Only when you get into March does it become difficult to get upper temps below -10C.

On paper Feb 2009 wouldn't have exactly gone down as a classic, but had two weeks of snow cover and numerous snow events. Only at the beginning were uppers around -10C. In fact the heaviest falls were in uppers of -3C. Difference was the snow froze quickly from the get-go and frequent top ups. I worked out that if all the snow had settled it would have come to 23 inches! But due to some freeze-thaw the max depth we got was around 10 inches! Lot of wastage!

[Kent Blizzard]

Those dew points are almost certainly flawed on the euro4! ! Just done see how we have positive dew points when every other parameter is perfect for snowfall wet bulb, thickness, 850s and temps!!

I like using the wundermap for dew point observations..

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=52.72999954&lon=-0.64999998&zoom=8&pin=Cottesmore%2c%20&rad=1&rad.type=00Q&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=0

[shaky]

Hi shaky I agree yet they still mention rain/sleet showers in the forecasts? god help me lol.

i know its really confusing!! Still.think main focus for snow tomorrow is east mids into western east anglia!! i could be wrong though!

[TEITS]

Well I have just looked at the temps, dewpoints across the region and im off to bed because this is a bust in my opinion.

 

Here in Peterborough we have had mainly cloudy skies with temps static at 1.7C, dewpoints at -0.2C. Now London which has seen mainly clear skies is still between 2-3C!

 

Now the GFS which is the only model keen on snowfall is predicting temps of -1C for right now.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs064.gif

 

So the combination  of incorrect GFS predictions and the Radar which is showing very little leads me to believe this will be a non event for my location and could only change under heavy precip. The chances for London/SE are even worse because none of the models predict precip for this area and the temps are even higher than my location.

 

 

Love to be proven wrong.

Edited February 5, 2015 by TEITS

[Kent Blizzard]

Just a few of the current Dew Point Observations, how correct the readings are who knows but you get a rough idea..

 

[SE Blizzards]

It has to be said... tonight's radar seems to have been sponsored by Scrooge. Even where there seems to be PPN falling in NE England people up there are reporting that it is dry!?

 

BAH HUMBUG!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

One thing is very clear to me. If the band of precip does develop through the wash during the night then it will need to be of moderate intensity to fall as snow. If this is light then it will more likely be rain/sleet.

 

The main problem with this cold spell is upper temps have generally been around -6 to -7C. Now I always use -10C as a benchmark and this is especially true as the flow has been NNE/NE,ly. Personally I have done better than expected considering the synoptic pattern, upper temps but as I said many days prior to the cold spell it was never going to be a classic.

 

Finally I read someone say on here that they have given up and shall return in November. This is madness in my opinion especially as +384 takes us to the 20th Feb. Once we get to end of Feb/early March ice days become difficult to achieve but there is no reason why a cold spell with -15C upper temps cannot occur over the next 2 weeks. Only when you get into March does it become difficult to get upper temps below -10C.

Absolutely TEITS. I recall March 11th 2013 when the South coast was brushed by an epic Blizzard in the Channel, the uppers then were about -12c. I remember being in Portsmouth that day and seeing the massive wall of grey in the Channel skirt Eastwards whilst being on the edge for around 8 hours with heavyish but fine powder snow! Frustrated wasn't the word as it just would not pivot any further North than literally the shoreline of Southsea! A push of 50-80 miles North would've had the whole of Hampshire, Sussex and Kent under many many inches of snow. The Channel islands that day saw around 1.5ft of snow I'm pretty certain.

Just shows the goods can be delivered if the ingredients are spot on, even in March.

[Daniel*]

Weather is not static it is continuously changing, progressively colder air is inching towards us. It is 1.6C here not exactly a great representation of the whole Southeast! to me this is looking like bulk of the potential action is for the SE. Where here we maintain less influence under approaching HP, WBFL are low enough for the snow and so are corresponding 850s.

Edited February 5, 2015 by Daniel*

[alexisj9]

temp 1.4 dp 0.8 hope it gets a chance to drop before the line of ppn gets here. It's slowly inching over. If only the wind would have a bit more of an east element, the dp would fall quite quickly then.

[Sweetdream]

Well I have just looked at the temps, dewpoints across the region and im off to bed because this is a bust in my opinion.

 

Here in Peterborough we have had mainly cloudy skies with temps static at 1.7C, dewpoints at -0.2C. Now London which has seen mainly clear skies is still between 2-3C!

 

Now the GFS which is the only model keen on snowfall is predicting temps of -1C for right now.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs064.gif

 

So the combination  of incorrect GFS predictions and the Radar which is showing very little leads me to believe this will be a non event for my location and could only change under heavy precip. The chances for London/SE are even worse because none of the models predict precip for this area and the temps are even higher than my location.

 

 

Love to be proven wrong.

Hi , teits temps earlier were 1c and dew point 0. Pressure started rising and temps have risen to 1.7 dew point 1. A few of the weather stations close by have temps at 1:0 clock at -1c yet meto have temps at 2c. Temps dropping around 7am to 1c but within an hour will rise 2c. Think what falls will be rain/ sleet. So not expecting anything white to fall.

[Kent Blizzard]

Weather is not static it is continuously changing, progressively colder air is inching towards us. It is 1.6C here not exactly a great representation of the whole Southeast! to me this is looking like bulk of the potential action is for the SE. Where here we maintain less influence under approaching HP, WBFL are low enough for the snow and so are corresponding 850s.

Now 1.3*c here and DP 1*c

 

You just know it'll be during the rush hour home from work when snow starts falling

Edited February 5, 2015 by Kent Blizzard

[SE Blizzards]

I currently have a DP of 1.2c   ..probably one of the highest DP's of the whole entire region. 

 

Now where did i put that bottle of wine!?

[SE Blizzards]

A straw to clutch at least for mid-month from Fergie over on the MAD thread..

 

fergieweather

 

Posted 8 minutes ago

 

Well, circa 20% chance of significant high cell retrogression towards the end of next week... the downward trend in mean EPS 850hPa temp and GPH shows very well in 12z EC plumes (e.g. For Reading or Exeter), with some markedly colder members in an ever-widening ENS spread by then... so, can't *yet* discount further colder outbreaks of Pm/Am air into next 10-15D on. It's not the favoured f'cast outcome into medium range, but for now can't be discounted either. 

Edited February 5, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Kent Blizzard]

Any updates from Fergie regarding the next 24hrs?

[Daniel*]

My dew point is 0C on the dot, I expect things to whirl into action by 3-6am hopefully, night all.

[Kent Blizzard]

My dew point is 0C on the dot, I expect things to whirl into action by 3-6am hopefully, night all.

Night Daniel, see you in the morning bright and yawning ready for a long day of weather fun & games 

Edited February 5, 2015 by Kent Blizzard

[SE Blizzards]

Any updates from Fergie regarding the next 24hrs?

 

I haven't seen any mate. I'm tempted to say no news is good news, but sadly i don't think that is the case this time round. Although having said that if anywhere is likely to see any snow (albeit mostly light stuff) then maybe some western areas of the region tomorrow breakfast time may see some ?, also Kent could be in a favoured spot too tomorrow. It could have nowcast written all over it.

Edited February 5, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Daniel*]

Night Daniel, see you in the morning bright and yawning ready for a long day of weather fun & games 

Night...still set my alarm for 4am...I reckon some have underestimated the strength of the cold along with snow risk. I've ruined it now.

[Kent Blizzard]

I haven't seen any mate. I'm tempted to say no news is good news, but sadly i don't think that is the case this time round. Although having said that if anywhere is likely to see any snow (albeit mostly light stuff) then maybe some western areas of the region tomorrow breakfast time may see some ?, also Kent could be in a favoured spot too tomorrow. It could have nowcast written all over it.

Thanks

 

I agree it will certainly be a nowcast situation and because this thread includes East Anglia reports from there may give the wrong idea for those Further South & East

[SE Blizzards]

Thanks

 

I agree it will certainly be a nowcast situation and because this thread includes East Anglia reports from there may give the wrong idea for those Further South & East

 

Yeah, well i'm in SE Essex, so i'm actually in EA myself, but i would definitely say that i'm around 50+ miles too far North, as i expect most of the shower activity to be around the Kent area when the winds 'finally' switch round to a more NE'ly/E'ly direction tomorrow... although i would love to be proven wrong of course. The more places that see snow the better.

 

All eyes on the radar tomorrow.

Edited February 5, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Sno' problem]

Well the North Sea looks to be powering up now, with some showers building over Norfolk and heading inland fast... Yet again, a case of radar watching, but if the DP's manage to drop and stay 'dropped' then it could provide at least a dusting for some.

Just need the convection to keep building.

 

(EDIT: Unfortunately, the temps and DP's are going up at all the stations in my area, so not looking good unless the ppn really builds, but those out of London could be luckier)

 

(RE-EDIT: Temps and DP's are dropping fast in North Norfolk, so there is hope still, if only the ppn builds enough. Good luck all)

Edited February 5, 2015 by Sno' problem

[Mark wheeler]

Right must go to be now. Something is brewing looks to far west for me bit all good for some on the reason

[Sno' problem]

Radar shows the ppn over East Anglia building very nicely over the past hour and a quarter:

Grrrrr... It posted them backwards!!!   


Hahahahahaha! Start at the last one...

Edited February 5, 2015 by Sno' problem