Southeast England & East Anglia - Weather Chat >> 1st Feb Onwards

[TEITS]

Still looking good for some parts.

 

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015020418/12-574.GIF?04-18

 

Despite cloud cover the dewpoints are just below freezing currently -0.2C.

[snowfish1]

Yes. At the moment the convergence zone of 2 streams of wind is around the Capes of north east France. From around 3am the convergence zone (and streamer activity) should develop over easternmost Kent. Sadly the colder uppers will still be the wrong side of the channel - so only places say 5 miles away from a windward coast and with 120m + altitude will do well - sweetspot likely to be Whitfield north of Dover. Second phase is as streamer moves offshore about 11am just as the colder air digs in (ha!) this offers the chance of lighter SNOW showers widely across much of Kent as uppers drop as low as -10 before moisture is squeezed out and the last showers dribble out around midnight.

Thank you for your reply. I enjoyed reading it and I understand a bit more about convergence. My mate who works from the port of dover just said how it is bizarre that dover itself can be bone dry and yet Whitfield (3-4 miles from the port) can have a couple of inches of snow I really appreciate your post.

Edited February 4, 2015 by snowfish1

[Daniel*]

convergence line , now that can create hours of fun for some ..

Convergence line

A slow-moving trough, which is parallel to the isobars and tends to be persistent over many hours or days. They are quite common in cold northerly outbreaks down the Irish Sea, affecting west Wales, Devon and Cornwall in particular, but can be found in other areas also. This convergence line can give hours of persistent precipitation over very localised areas, whilst a few miles down the road it is relatively dry, leading to some heavy snowfall/rainfall. In summer the convergence lines are not as easy to forecast, but then can still occur due to sea-breeze convergence, and are over the land, whilst in winter they are over the sea

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/symbols

Cheers I'm fairly new to this technical lark. Perhaps I might be on the ball regarding Dover.

Going for somewhere in the Southeast going on 10cm because I can - last chance saloon perhaps..

Edited February 4, 2015 by Daniel*

[yamkin]

Latest GFS model is just rolling out and it has stuck to it's guns and is going for light to moderate snow in parts of our region around tomorrow morning rush hour lasting until early afternoon.
 

The windchill will make it feel very raw on Thursday and Friday.
 

High pressure looks like establishing itself from Saturday where it will still be on the cold side with possible frost / fog at night.
 

In my opinion, this high pressure will be the calm before the storm regarding a return to much colder conditions.

[Jimmyh]

Ah now I have missed the yam ramp not been enough of those recently

[polar vortex]

The GFS has consistently shown an area of snow moving down from the wash around 4 am in a south westerly direction 

giving roughly 3 to 4 hours of snow with west cambridge, bedfordshire and hertfordshire in prime location 

before the snow continues to weaken as it moves further south and west.

You can see this quite cleary on the high res 0.25 degrees on meteociel. Temps, dew points and 850's 

all look conducive for lying snow. If this proves accurate then I could see some places getting 5 or 6cm before 

it peters out.

Edited February 4, 2015 by polar vortex

[snowsummer]

Hi well simply it is our default pattern with zonal the models have a good grip, and there's raised confidence when it comes to cold potential it all goes out the window as the models really do struggle when the pattern bucks the trend anything considered out of place, ie. snow is a real toughie. It does have to go pretty perfect to get cold in a British Isles there's many variables and these have to slot in place, unfortunately this year we've had 2/3 fleeting chances but it seems the polar vortex a large pocket of very cold air, has hindered any attempt at a block ensuing. Which is why we're having a largely positive NAO, meaning low pressure to the north & higher pressure to the south, this is not what you're looking for - Negative NAO vice versa, due to the big fat slug residing over Greenland. To have got the 'cold' spell was a miracle in itself. In terms of it sustaining. Block ensures frigid air sinks S, meanwhile this winter it all seems to have been bottled up in polar regions.

Thank you. All this time I thought negative/positive NAO influenced the polar vortex not other way round! (Hope in now understanding correctly!) So difficult to learn all this, and so close to giving up but then ...its soooo bloody addictive once you start trying!

[Mark wheeler]

Getting up at 4.30am to drive to London for a meeting, should arrive about 10am and I expect to see some snow!

Going to Westminster and want to see Big Ben snow covered.

Don't disappoint me now lads.

Andy

LOL You have more chance of seeing my Big Ben .

Cloudy here drizzle at times

Hoping for some snow but not much hope really ( reverse sycology

[Captain Shortwave]

Sunday and Monday

Both days show a light to moderate north/north westerly wind

Fine and mostly dry. Large amounts of cloud around. The thickest cloud potentially producing a little drizzle. Hopefully there will be some sunshine around.

Temperatures - 5-8C

[Kentspur]

Woo hoo 4 snow symbols for my location tomorrow evening on BBC app now lol- won't hold my breath- not convinced as places like medway Lewisham and Dartford either side have none!

[terryall]

Lewisham and Dartford either side have none.

There ye go ...that's me again.

Never before have so many lost so much sleep in the pursuit of so little......hang on...that sounds a bit Churchillian but you get the point.

[Daniel*]

Thank you. All this time I thought negative/positive NAO influenced the polar vortex not other way round! (Hope in now understanding correctly!) So difficult to learn all this, and so close to giving up but then ...its soooo bloody addictive once you start trying!

No you are correct, sorry if I confused you.

Usually a Negative NAO equates to a stressed PV

Positive NAO implies a raging PV

This winter we've endured mostly a positive NAO - meaning the PV has been like a brick of lard. Once the NAO goes negative this allows high pressure cells or ridges to settle over northern latitudes, with much more ease. And from there the fun and games can begin, +ve anomalies over Scandinavia or Greenland historically give birth to great cold blasts. Positive NAO keeps the cold air bottled up over the far north, since the environment is not ideal, no blocking develops to help channel the cold air towards us.

Edited February 4, 2015 by Daniel*

[Kent Blizzard]

Woo hoo 4 snow symbols for my location tomorrow evening on BBC app now lol- won't hold my breath- not convinced as places like medway Lewisham and Dartford either side have none!

Chatham does at 17:00hrs-18:00...been showing that all day

Edited February 4, 2015 by Kent Blizzard

[SuffolkDan]

Fellow East Anglians is anyone getting anything falling from the sky in Norfolk/Suffolk from the bits on the radar at the moment please or are my eyes just making them up to stop my brain switching off? Thanks in advance

[Neilsouth]

Still no snow, this is bull

[Coopsy]

Still no snow, this is bull

you definitely are a speaker of truth :-)

[yamkin]

Gritting teams will be deployed at 00:00 hrs to treat A & B Routes in Croydon due to snowfall from Thursday morning's rush hour lasting into early afternoon

Edited February 4, 2015 by yamkin

[Crepuscular Ray]

Which model does Croydon Council follow Yamkin? Presumably it's not the Met Office, which currently has only sleet for Croydon from 7-10 a.m. tomorrow.

[Coopsy]

Well it does show some showers popping up more on the radar over east anglia...

[pinball wizard]

Fellow East Anglians is anyone getting anything falling from the sky in Norfolk/Suffolk from the bits on the radar at the moment please or are my eyes just making them up to stop my brain switching off? Thanks in advance

Slushy wet snow about 20 mins ago here in Bury...

[Mark wheeler]

Radar has exploded over Newcastle hopefully the same happens further south over the next couple of hours . I've seen it before in these kind of set ups

[Southender]

Looks like to me another repeat of Monday. A very narrow band of snow showers pushing SW from the wash. Probably giving a light covering. Everyone else, dry as a bone. Pretty localised. Great for those of you under the train. For the rest of us, very frustrating again. With the models showing HP in charge for the forseeable I am very close to throwing the towel in on another crap winter for my area.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Don't get your hopes up, I've just seen precipitation in the form of rain!

[Kent Blizzard]

Gritting teams will be deployed at 00:00 hrs to treat A & B Routes in Croydon due to snowfall from Thursday morning's rush hour lasting into early afternoon

Kent Gritters have done all Primary Routes and will be out again at 3am...I've seen the local ones out alot over the last few weeks, not too sure why tbh lol

Edited February 4, 2015 by Kent Blizzard

[Daniel*]

Prowling in the MOD thread. I survived.