Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2015: The Melt Season

[Gray-Wolf]

I feel the next few weeks is set to either scupper  or lend weight to my contention that 'crackopalypse events' precondition the ice for rapid melt under proper conditions. The heat entering the basin looks to provide those conditions over wide ares over the next couple of weeks with H.P. setting up house in the basin ( and over Greenland?).

[keithlucky]

I see another sub 60k drop today, at this rate we will be back to 1980s soon  

 

Seriously if you look at the ice thickness now cf 2012 you can see how much more of the 2m/3m ice there is.

 

Usual spots with 4/5m thickness are similar and of course most of the sub 2m will met out but you left with a much larger core.

 

However whats remaining in Hudson will go fairly soon (3 weeks) but i cant see sub 8m  in the next 2 weeks and given the winter we had that will be remarkable.

 

Still much of the summer to go of course but I'm sure most folk will agree we wont get a 'record this year' unless its for recovery.

Arctic ice within one standard deviation second highest since 2004 only 2008 higher

[Geordiesnow]

I feel the next few weeks is set to either scupper  or lend weight to my contention that 'crackopalypse events' precondition the ice for rapid melt under proper conditions. The heat entering the basin looks to provide those conditions over wide ares over the next couple of weeks with H.P. setting up house in the basin ( and over Greenland?).

 

For me, the ice does look quite vulnerable to quite sharp melting, especially giving the weather patterns we are now seeing with Chuckchi must be on its lowest extent on record(?). Although extent is looking fairly decent, area is still dropping(and is below 2014) and if you compare 2014 and 2015 sea ice concentration maps, you can tell which looks the healthier year of the two in terms of concentration. 

 

Although it seems high pressure is going to be the player here, the models are not fully agreeing on the positioning of the high, for me, the further South towards the pole and Svalbard is probably more ideally placed, it will help the Pacific side of the Arctic to cool somewhat and cloud cover should also increase however if its centred more towards the Pacific side of the basin, then this will lead the risk of winds blowing in from a warm Russian continent and of course, there may be clear skies in the pacific regions of the Arctic. 

 

If there is some good news, it does appear the worse of the warmth should be gone fairly shortly, at least for now

[knocker]

ASI 2015 update 4: massive heat

 

July 7th 2015

 

I wanted to wait for the latest PIOMAS update and do another melt pond analysis for June, but given the current circumstances and the forecast I've decided to squeeze this ASI update in first.

 

As we've seen in previous ASI updates this melting season hasn't had a flying start, but it hasn't been as slow as 2013 and 2014 either. With extent going low real fast, but area lagging behind, the compactness numbers indicated little melt pond formation and no divergence to speak of. Melt ponds - and to a lesser extent openings within the ice pack - are important because they lower the ice pack's albedo and soak up a lot of sunlight, preconditioning the ice for further melting. This melting momentum, as I call it, can play a decisive role in the latter half of the melting season, trumping weather conditions.

 

Of course, weather still plays a very significant role in the final outcome of a melting season. This year hasn't seen any substantial preconditioning and is more similar to rebound years 2013 and 2014 than record years 2012, 2007 and 2011. In fact, this year has been very much like last year, in the sense that there is hardly any movement. Very little ice is transported through Fram Strait to the North Atlantic ice graveyard, and there is no compaction or divergence to speak of because of a lack of strong winds. Most of the extent/area decrease is caused by so-called in situ melting, or melting on the spot.

 

However, there is one big difference compared to last year and that's heat. Despite a very cold start, there have been several outbreaks of warm air over the ice, slowly but radically shifting the balance between extent and area data. The impact is felt on the surface of the ice pack, but doesn't translate directly into a decrease. Not yet. In theory, it should percolate through after a while, especially if the heat persists. And right now the Arctic sea ice pack is undergoing a massive heat wave which shows no signs of letting up.

 

More on what has happened and what is going to happen below.

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/07/asi-2015-update-4-massive-heat.html

Edited July 7, 2015 by knocker

[Geordiesnow]

However the models runs have indicated that shallow low pressure areas may form and the uppers are forecast to decrease somewhat so whilst high pressure is the main player here, I am skeptical on how clear the skies will be from day to day. We could get a set up whilst pressure may remain high across the poles, shallower lower pressure could be more of a feature on the Pacific side of the Arctic thus bring cloudier and slightly cooler weather. 

 

That said, I have seen some runs which does look rather poor for ice retention like last nights ECM yet this morning's ECM has reverted to a slightly better set up so as per usual, its not totally certain what the outlook will be. 

 

I think the main conclusions I can see upcoming is that the uppers will cool off somewhat but uppers of over 0C will become a lot more widespread over the basin, Beaufort/laptev is likely to be quite  cool with lower pressure whereas strong Northerly winds will develop over the Barants/Kara Sea and there does not seem to any significant sign of a return to lower pressure more widely across the basin but of course weather patterns can quickly change before we know it. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Big drops the last 2 days for the ADS extent, 113k yesterday and 164k today. Massive coverage losses can be seen across the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas yesterday, associated with the warm air moving in from the Pacific, bringing surface melt across most of the ice too. Lots of ice still remaining in the Baffin sea and Hudson Bay, which should melt out over the next few weeks too.

 

 

 

I'd expect to see a few century drops on the NSIDC extent over the next few days, perhaps even a chance of a week with over 1 million km2 lost? After dropping back below most recent years over the last month, it will be interesting to see if the current warm conditions will be enough to close the gap and get us back in within range of a bottom 5 finish by September.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm still concerned that a portion of the 'volume' being recorded is off Swiss cheese ice? Prof Barber brought such to our attentions earlier this decade and the past two years of ice retention must include a portion of partially melted floes which then infilled with FY ice over winter. With such warmth presently the FY infill will go leaving a carcass of older ice with huge surface area for a warm ocean to eat into.

 

By Late July/early Aug this ice , should we continue with warmth, we might see ice blink out in areas supposedly full of older ice.

[Interitus]

In the last couple of days the Nares has just started moving along its full length. It tends to ease from the south northwards but this year the northern end has been mobile for some time while a large ice arch at the southern end has been quite resilient.

Edited July 10, 2015 by Interitus

[keithlucky]

High Arctic ice cover even in Hudson Bay http://polarbearscience.com/2015/07/08/sea-ice-breakup-update-high-ice-coverage-just-about-everywhere-even-hudson-bay

[Interitus]

High Arctic ice cover even in Hudson Bay http://polarbearscience.com/2015/07/08/sea-ice-breakup-update-high-ice-coverage-just-about-everywhere-even-hudson-bay

 

Yes the Hudson Bay ice has been acknowledged as has the likelihood that it will melt out and is currently inflating the ice area/extent and deflecting from actual conditions in the Arctic.

Seeing as polarbearscience is now the 'go to' place for climate news -

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80838-sceptical-about-climate-change-reasons-and-opinion/page-35#entry3219302

 

There is some interesting material regarding welfare of the polar bear and the complex predator/prey relationships. But it is important that the ideas regarding improved Svalbard ice conditions due to MJO relates mostly to circulation pattern changes in ice transport which is critical at the margin of the ice pack. The AMO is unlikely to have an immediate impact.

There could be a temperature contribution but the bottom line is that in the 12 months to this June, the Longyearbyen anomaly was 3.75°C above average with a November-April 'winter' anomaly of +5.43°C. It's just that the 2013-14 six month winter anom. was a ridiculous +7.15°C including +11.2°C in January and +14.5°C in February.

 

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html

Edited July 11, 2015 by Interitus

[keithlucky]

No point quoting figures of dodgy temperature data when temperatures are taken miles away(as proven by location of weather stations in previous posts), the facts are simple the multi Arctic sea ice has shown a increase in  Ice density, and a decrease in sea ice loss over the summer seasons,facts speak louder than figures as the article shows.

[reef]

No point quoting figures of dodgy temperature data when temperatures are taken miles away(as proven by location of weather stations in previous posts), the facts are simple the multi Arctic sea ice has shown a increase in  Ice density, and a decrease in sea ice loss over the summer seasons,facts speak louder than figures as the article shows.

 

Perhaps you would like to provide some figures then?

[Interitus]

No point quoting figures of dodgy temperature data when temperatures are taken miles away(as proven by location of weather stations in previous posts), the facts are simple the multi Arctic sea ice has shown a increase in  Ice density, and a decrease in sea ice loss over the summer seasons,facts speak louder than figures as the article shows.

 

The dodgy figures are the official values from the Norwegian Met Office (Meteorologisk institutt), and as shared through WMO Synop and Climat data!

Which of the temperature figures are contentious?

[Gray-Wolf]

I wouldn't pursue it int? Sadly they have form on calling 'foul' for any data that does not show what they expect to see........ everyone is out to get them it would appear?

 

With Baffin and Hudson about to 'normalise' their position (ice free) over the coming days we will get our first sight of how much ice we really have in the basin. With the Pacific side appearing to be taking the brunt of the melting. Already the modis images over Beaufort/ESS/Chuckchi look poor.

Edited July 11, 2015 by Gray-Wolf

[Interitus]

Already the modis images over Beaufort/ESS/Chuckchi look poor.

The north of the Chukchi/Beaufort looks particularly bad, a few weeks ahead of 2014 so if melt continued even like last year it would probably be clear water deep into the CAB to 80°N

[BornFromTheVoid]

NSIDC daily extent is down 588k in the last 4 days. A strong start to this warm spell, but that rate of loss will need to be maintained for another week at least to get back into the bottom 5.

[Geordiesnow]

I wouldn't pursue it int? Sadly they have form on calling 'foul' for any data that does not show what they expect to see........ everyone is out to get them it would appear?

 

With Baffin and Hudson about to 'normalise' their position (ice free) over the coming days we will get our first sight of how much ice we really have in the basin. With the Pacific side appearing to be taking the brunt of the melting. Already the modis images over Beaufort/ESS/Chuckchi look poor.

 

To be honest, Hudson looks like it will remain cool for the time of year for quite a while yet so ice could still be maintained even well into the 3rd week of July however the ice extent in those 2 regions is probably masking over the fact that ice extent in parts of the Pacific side of the Arctic is doing fairly poorly at the moment. 

 

The trend seem to be the strongest of the heights will be over and near to Greenland with a general flow going from Beaufort(which interestingly despite its poor start is actually holding up not too badly) towards Laptev and temps do look fair mild for the most part. Perhaps one good thing is the lack of a deep area of low pressure showing in the outputs at this moment in time. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

With a drop of 144k yesterday, NSIDC extent has dropped 852k in the last 7 days. Still well off most recent years, but below both 2008 and 2009.

Edited July 13, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[Hocus Pocus]

To be honest, Hudson looks like it will remain cool for the time of year for quite a while yet so ice could still be maintained even well into the 3rd week of July however the ice extent in those 2 regions is probably masking over the fact that ice extent in parts of the Pacific side of the Arctic is doing fairly poorly at the moment. 

 

The trend seem to be the strongest of the heights will be over and near to Greenland with a general flow going from Beaufort(which interestingly despite its poor start is actually holding up not too badly) towards Laptev and temps do look fair mild for the most part. Perhaps one good thing is the lack of a deep area of low pressure showing in the outputs at this moment in time. 

Conditions look primed for rapid loss over towards the Pacific Basin if the current synoptic  pattern doesn't change I would think BFTV?

[Geordiesnow]

Conditions look primed for rapid loss over towards the Pacific Basin if the current synoptic  pattern doesn't change I would think BFTV?

 

I would say its more towards the edges like the Eastern Siberian Sea, parts of Kara that looks at the most risk at the moment, conditions on paper over most of the Pacific side of the Arctic has improved  somewhat with slightly cooler but cloudier weather with shallow low pressure systems skirming across the West-East flow. 

 

This afternoon model runs from the GFS and now the ECM appear to show the dreaded dipole in the medium term which could be yet another battering for the sea ice across the Pacfic side of the Arctic in general, far too early to say as no doubt details will change but although there has been some variations in the runs, there is nothing convincing of a proper widespread cool down in the Arctic, obviously not helped being in the peak of the melt season and warmth over the Arctic.

 

ECM 192 hour chart shows the perfect example of a dipole. 

[knocker]

Like so

Chart weatherbell

 

[Geordiesnow]

The perfect dipole situation is still there 2 days on from when the models have first really hinted at it. It does look very likely too occur now(despite it still being around 120 hours away) but the questions will be, how long it will last and just how strong it will be? 

 

If it happens, its going to be yet another battering to the ice on the Pacific side of the Arctic which may end up even more of the thickest ice we do have left melting away and of course, then we got more ice escaping via fram also. One bit of good news is that the models are perhaps indicating heights in Greenland may finally start to lower a bit, which may help the situation there. 

 

I look at the set ups in the short term, and if it was not so mild on a widespread level, then you would say, it does not look too bad weather wise(fairly slack set ups, no storms to disrupt the ice) and when you look at 2012, there was a fairly deep low pressure system that occured in July which started to weaken the ice in the Chuckchi before the main storm hit in early August. 

 

Going to be interesting too see if this dipole does set up and how long and strong it will be if it does occur.

[knocker]

Beaufort and Northwest Passage videos

 

Over on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum commenter Jim Hunt from the Great White Con blog posted videos he made, showing developments since the start of the month in the Northwest Passage (where the blue ice is breaking up fast):

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/07/beaufort-and-northwest-passage-videos.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

443k dropped in the last 3 days on the ADS extent. We're now within 300k of 2013 and 2014, despite having about 500k extra in Hudson Bay and Baffin.

 

At the current loss rate, we'll be back in the bottom 3 in 7 days, and lowest on record in 10. Can the high melt rates keep up though?

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi BFTV!

 

The past two melt seasons showed me what a lack of melt momentum and low export can still bring to the Sea Ice levels? This year export has slowed but looks likely to re-start as the basin weather moves toward a Di pole. This will not impact melt over the Pacific side as it looks to continue uninterrupted which is really doing a job on the older ice there ( then 'The Blob' has pushed warm waters up there with some of the Alaskan coastal strips showing 19c temps in the ocean there!!!)

 

If last years KW's did migrate up the coast and add into the blob then what ought we expect next year as the remnants of this years KW's push up into the Basin?

 

Anyhow we will now start to see just how 'good' all of the older ice was? If it was a rotted carcass of old ice filled up with last winters FY ice then it'll begin rapid decay now the 'infill ice' is now gone ( ending the partial melt the past two years began) so I'll be looking for big losses occurring in areas purported to be old, strong ice?