Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2015: The Melt Season

[Geordiesnow]

443k dropped in the last 3 days on the ADS extent. We're now within 300k of 2013 and 2014, despite having about 500k extra in Hudson Bay and Baffin.

 

At the current loss rate, we'll be back in the bottom 3 in 7 days, and lowest on record in 10. Can the high melt rates keep up though?

 

Looking at the weather patterns and the current state of the ice, I can't see how the high melt rates can't keep up, I think there is a very high chance the record will be broken, the ice just looks so thin now. If the HYCOM model is right, then its a major concern because the ice on the Pacfic side has been taking one hell of a beating. 

[knocker]

This is pretty much the analysis for next seven days.

Chart weatherbell

 

[keithlucky]

Arctic ice still on track to match 2006 with cold temperatures forecaste for the next 10 days in the Beaufort  sea area  Arctic ice is holding up well

Edited July 19, 2015 by keithlucky

[Gray-Wolf]

Yes G.S., if you look at the modis images ( a matter of hours old) you can see the mess Beaufort /Bering/ESS are in and yet the warm waters keep coming without end? As we begin to approach the bottom melt end of the season the temps we now see at the entrance to Beaufort ( in the straights and the approach) of 19c along the coastal waters does not speak of ice retention!!!

 

Oooops , I see KL thinks different? I wonder who has their facts straight?

[Gray-Wolf]

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/testimage.2.sh?first=20150717.jpg&second=20120717.jpg

 

 

Can this info be remotely correct????

 

Even 2012 had a central core of 100% ice? 

Edited July 20, 2015 by Gray-Wolf

[Geordiesnow]

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/testimage.2.sh?first=20150717.jpg&second=20120717.jpg

 

 

Can this info be remotely correct????

 

Even 2012 had a central core of 100% ice? 

 

The North Pole is obviously incorrect(maybe that is put in to make it clearer where the North Pole is) but you look at the HYCOM model and you can just see the ice on the Pacific side of the Arctic is just so vulnable right now. 

 

A record low is most certainly not out of the question, although if that did happen, then the denialists may point out the weather conditions have been pretty good for strong melt. 

 

Must admit, the persistance of higher pressure and warmth is remarkable, yes there has been some shallow lows but these have not really been bringing much in the way of cooler conditions in all truthness. 

 

Although its alarming too see the ice looking this way, the 2nd half of the melt season could well be interesting to say the least. 

[oldsnowywizard]

The denialists...wow what a nice term for anyone with a different opinion or view... cool name for a film though...

[BornFromTheVoid]

The denialists...wow what a nice term for anyone with a different opinion or view... cool name for a film though...

 

There are "denialists" here, but that doesn't mean anyone with a different opinion or view.

 

If fact, google presents a rather apt example:

 

Denialist

noun

 

a person who refuses to admit the truth of a concept or proposition that is supported by the majority of scientific or historical evidence.

"the small minority of very vocal climate change denialists"

 

[oldsnowywizard]

Ha very good... so BFTV what positives are there up there at the moment ....anything going well or ok?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Ha very good... so BFTV what positives are there up there at the moment ....anything going well or ok?

 

Extent-wise, we're still above 2014 (barely) and 2013. 

 

Beaufort has held out very well considering the warmth over the last few weeks, with slightly more area and extent than last year. This is mainly thanks to the thicker multiyear ice present there. However, the warmth does appear to be eating into the volume, and the last few days have seen sea ice concentration there drop quite substantially. 

 

While we've seen near record losses over the last 2 weeks or so, once the "extra ice" in Hudson and Baffin melt out (both still close to or above average), we might see things slow down quite a bit. If the warmth and impressive melt rates continue, 2012 could even come under threat though.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Great animation from Wipneus showing the loss of ice in Hudon Bay over the last 2 weeks or so.

 

 

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg57407.html#msg57407

[keithlucky]

Arctic ice still on track to match 2006 with cold temperatures forecaste for the next 10 days in the Beaufort  sea area  Arctic ice is holding up well

More evidence of Arctic sea ice  increase due to cooler summers  http://t.co/aUXDMnA6U3

Edited July 21, 2015 by keithlucky

[Methuselah]

More evidence of Arctic sea ice  increase due to cooler summers  http://t.co/aUXDMnA6U3

Why don't you just give it up, keith: no earth-shattering melt and no recovery either?

[keithlucky]

Why don't you just give it up, keith: no earth-shattering melt and no recovery either?

An increase of a third is pretty impressive.considering it was widely forecasted by GW supporters that by 2015 Arctic would be ice free .

[inghams85]

An increase of a third is pretty impressive.considering it was widely forecasted by GW supporters that by 2015 Arctic would be ice free .

Just give up Keith lmfaooooo no one takes the blind bit of notice of the rubbish you post!

[Methuselah]

An increase of a third is pretty impressive.considering it was widely forecasted by GW supporters that by 2015 Arctic would be ice free .

A whole third? On Pluto?

[Midlands Ice Age]

Just give up Keith lmfaooooo no one takes the blind bit of notice of the rubbish you post!

 

So what is it Ingham that you object to?

 

Is it...

 

the 33% increase in ice in the last 3 years as posted in an official paper and shown by Keith

the fact that the arctic was not free of ice  by 2015 as was touted by some top warming scientists some years ago

or much more up to date scientifically (as Ed suggests) we have been talking about Pluto.

 

I know that I would believe Keith's paper rather than warmers maybe's the ice will be gone by 2015 and definateley Ed's knowledge of Pluto!!

 

Are you sure that your post is not the largest piece of rubbish/bullsh?t  published on here for a while?

 

Why not produce some data refuting Keith's position rather than name calling. It doesn't go down well on a science based forum!

 

MIA

[inghams85]

Hahahahahaha!!! The ice extent and volume will go up and down variably as can be seen in the last 3 years. The longer term trend however is unfortunately down as will be the case by the end of this years melt season (which is happening as I type)

 

Your persistence to refuting already peer reviewed science in the arctic is commendable but ultimately wrong

So what is it Ingham that you object to?

 

Is it...

 

the 33% increase in ice in the last 3 years as posted in an official paper and shown by Keith

the fact that the arctic was not free of ice  by 2015 as was touted by some top warming scientists some years ago

or much more up to date scientifically (as Ed suggests) we have been talking about Pluto.

 

I know that I would believe Keith's paper rather than warmers maybe's the ice will be gone by 2015 and definateley Ed's knowledge of Pluto!!

 

Are you sure that your post is not the largest piece of rubbish/bullsh?t  published on here for a while?

 

Why not produce some data refuting Keith's position rather than name calling. It doesn't go down well on a science based forum!

 

MIA

[Relativistic]

If Arctic sea ice really is doomed then why don't we deploy the stratoshield?

It's not like there is nothing we can do.

Edited July 21, 2015 by 22nov10blast

[keithlucky]

A whole third? On Pluto?

Amazing really how you cannot accept the truth(blind faith) http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33594654

Edited July 22, 2015 by keithlucky

[Methuselah]

The truth, the whole truth or nothing like the truth?

[reef]

The irony. From that article:

 

 

But they say 2013 was a one-off and that climate change will continue to shrink the ice in the decades ahead.

 

The Arctic region has warmed more than most other parts of the planet over the past 30 years.

 

Satellite observations have documented a decrease of around 40% in the extent of sea ice cover in the Arctic since 1980.

 

Meanwhile we are already less than 2 million sq km off from the 2013 and 2014 lows on cryosphere with two months to go until late-September. If 'the recovery' is to happen then something amazing will have to happen looking at the current patterns.

Edited July 22, 2015 by reef

[keithlucky]

Great animation from Wipneus showing the loss of ice in Hudon Bay over the last 2 weeks or so.

 

 

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg57407.html#msg57407

Worse ice condition in Hudson bay in 20 yrs http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/ccgs-amundsen-re-routed-to-hudson-bay-to-help-with-heavy-ice-1.3162900?cmp=rss

[Midlands Ice Age]

Worse ice condition in Hudson bay in 20 yrs http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/ccgs-amundsen-re-routed-to-hudson-bay-to-help-with-heavy-ice-1.3162900?cmp=rss

 

Guys

 

There is still 7 weeks to go before the ice extent starts its upwards movement.

 

Are we saying that we have the ability to see what the low point will be?

 

I prefer to wait and see what the actual low point is rather than  starting to celebrate at this early stage. 

 

All keith is doing is pointing out that so far this season the actual ice melt is about average for the last few years.

 

If the trend continues then the callers of 'real science' on here will look pretty stupid.

 

By the way my guesses for the last  3 years have been 5mill kilo (x2) and this year 4.3 so I think I have been quite a bit more accurate then many so-called climate scientists. However the next few weeks could make a monkey out of us all.  A lower figure this year was expected by many denialists, as quite correctly Ingham points out the trends can move both up and down in either a warming or a cooling trend/environment. 

 

So lets quit all the bull-sh?t and see what happens?

 

MIA

[inghams85]

A good post!

The end game in a warming world is ultimately a shrinking of the North pole ice sheet. There are two way out of this:

- a maunder minimum

- negative feedbacks eventually from a slowing north Atlantic drift (little ice age)

Guys

 

There is still 7 weeks to go before the ice extent starts its upwards movement.

 

Are we saying that we have the ability to see what the low point will be?

 

I prefer to wait and see what the actual low point is rather than  starting to celebrate at this early stage. 

 

All keith is doing is pointing out that so far this season the actual ice melt is about average for the last few years.

 

If the trend continues then the callers of 'real science' on here will look pretty stupid.

 

By the way my guesses for the last  3 years have been 5mill kilo (x2) and this year 4.3 so I think I have been quite a bit more accurate then many so-called climate scientists. However the next few weeks could make a monkey out of us all.  A lower figure this year was expected by many denialists, as quite correctly Ingham points out the trends can move both up and down in either a warming or a cooling trend/environment. 

 

So lets quit all the bull-sh?t and see what happens?

 

MIA