Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2015: The Melt Season

[Devonian]

As uual most of your posts amount to misleading rhetoric, we don't have much idea of what is or isn't normal until quite recently as satellite photos became much higher res and readily available. Giving the impression the Arctic Basin used to be crammed full of ice teens of feet thick but now everything is somehow wrecked is little more than propaganda but you seem to gleefully parrot similar catchphrases every year.

Well, you're the expert, point me to some evidence the ice in the past wasn't older and thicker?

In fact, for a start, try to explain how you both think we don't know much about the ice pre satellite data and, at the same time, we do know a lot about ice pre satellite data given you feel able to (here's a thing eh?) ridicule the idea it was thicker and older back then...

Edited June 2, 2015 by Devonian

[knocker]

This low pressure over the Pole is certainly persistent. It's creating some interesting synoptics with the possibility of a trough forming east of Greenland and then plunging cooler air over western Europe impacting our mid June weather.

[Gray-Wolf]

I know Knocks , its a shocker. All around massive heat apart from Fram spilling its guts over us........ humbug I say! 

 

Should it be what we get then those fissues along Greenland coast will allow easy movement of the ice toward Fram.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Are we making the same mistake year on year and looking at 850 temps or are we looking at 2m temps? Extreme warmth and other comments are misleading... barrow is 0 degrees right now.. last week during the "extreme warmth" it went to a barmy 3 degrees.. it is june..weather patterns always from april to sep will allow warmer air into the arctic..there is not a force field in place stopping it. We know from the past that there are many other factors which will lead to ice melt.. radiation, ssts , etc etc. We do not know nearly enough to make anything but speculation. Gw for eg has since i have been a member talked about bad ice.. serious cracks etc ..but still the ice has not melted out as perhaps he and many others have thought... does that mean it cant happen..NO no one cant predict the future.. even i have been surprised by the ice as is today... after 07 and 11 i thought we were doomed.. i even bought a ..i heart gw t shirt.. but ...here we are..thicker ice than we have been used to over this last 5 years or so... lets see how it pans out..

 

Surface values aren't much use over ice as the melting point holds the air temperature close to 0C, that's why people look at upper air values as it helps to gauge the heat contained within the air mass.

As it is, the Beaufort and Chuckhi seas are melting well ahead of schedule and even ahead of 2012 by some measures, despite the claims of thickest ice since whenever and Barrow only reaching 3C a few days ago (although it had maxima of up to 8C a few days before, with several days of 3-6C). http://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/barrow/historic

 

But yeah, the weather will be the main determining factor for where we end up come September, but the fact of the matter is that the ice is still much thinner than average, we are still record lowest by a large margin for extent and in the bottom few years. Would this have been the case if the sea ice was in a similar state to the 80s? Doubt it.

[Interitus]

Surface values aren't much use over ice as the melting point holds the air temperature close to 0C, that's why people look at upper air values as it helps to gauge the heat contained within the air mass.

As it is, the Beaufort and Chuckhi seas are melting well ahead of schedule and even ahead of 2012 by some measures, despite the claims of thickest ice since whenever and Barrow only reaching 3C a few days ago (although it had maxima of up to 8C a few days before, with several days of 3-6C). http://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/barrow/historic

 

But yeah, the weather will be the main determining factor for where we end up come September, but the fact of the matter is that the ice is still much thinner than average, we are still record lowest by a large margin for extent and in the bottom few years. Would this have been the case if the sea ice was in a similar state to the 80s? Doubt it.

 

The latest IJIS extent of 10800117 from 2nd June was an average value for 7/8th July in the 1980s, over a month later. No change there then.

[Geordiesnow]

Are we making the same mistake year on year and looking at 850 temps or are we looking at 2m temps? Extreme warmth and other comments are misleading... barrow is 0 degrees right now.. last week during the "extreme warmth" it went to a barmy 3 degrees.. it is june..weather patterns always from april to sep will allow warmer air into the arctic..there is not a force field in place stopping it. We know from the past that there are many other factors which will lead to ice melt.. radiation, ssts , etc etc. We do not know nearly enough to make anything but speculation. Gw for eg has since i have been a member talked about bad ice.. serious cracks etc ..but still the ice has not melted out as perhaps he and many others have thought... does that mean it cant happen..NO no one cant predict the future.. even i have been surprised by the ice as is today... after 07 and 11 i thought we were doomed.. i even bought a ..i heart gw t shirt.. but ...here we are..thicker ice than we have been used to over this last 5 years or so... lets see how it pans out..

 

Although you got to be careful when looking at 850 temps, the fact is, if you get high temperatures and winds blowing off the landmasses and in particular strong winds, then it will cause the ice to retreat from the coast and for the open water to 'warm' up. 

 

Got to say the low pressure system has certainly got interesting, since i last checked, the models have deepened it somewhat and it could be a bit longer lasting, maybe some good news is that whilst it does attract milder air, it does have some colder air mixed in so could heavy snowfall help the ice? On the other hand, the strong winds could start to weaken the ice and then there is the warmth coming in from Russia and right towards Laptev. 

 

For some of the more knowledgable members, how come sea ice Area is falling quite steady yet extent is falling much quicker and we are the lowest on record? Is it due to the high concentrations? 

[stewfox]

Are we making the same mistake year on year and looking at 850 temps or are we looking at 2m temps? Extreme warmth and other comments are misleading... barrow is 0 degrees right now.. last week during the "extreme warmth" it went to a barmy 3 degrees.. it is june..weather patterns always from april to sep will allow warmer air into the arctic..there is not a force field in place stopping it. We know from the past that there are many other factors which will lead to ice melt.. radiation, ssts , etc etc. ..

 

Of course the high arctic hovers around 0c during the summer because its nearly all ice.Its true some folk take too much at face value the 850 temps and assume a rapid melt which then doesn't happen. IJIS loss is actual slowing in the last few days and that relates to surface temperatures and thicker ice.

 

Another 10 days and the extent will go back into a more comfortable position. 

[knocker]

Of course the high arctic hovers around 0c during the summer because its nearly all ice.Its true some folk take too much at face value the 850 temps and assume a rapid melt which then doesn't happen. IJIS loss is actual slowing in the last few days and that relates to surface temperatures and thicker ice.

 

Another 10 days and the extent will go back into a more comfortable position. 

 

Who exactly are these some folk who take too much at face value? I ask because all of the contributors that I've read have all stated at various times that ice melt is complex and dependent on many factors.

[Gray-Wolf]

As we saw from the Swerus C3 expedition last summer ( from their weather balloon readings) the down welling of heat from upper levels , now we have a moister atmosphere over summer months up there, has massive impacts on the ice below. Even the scientists were taken aback by the heat they experienced?

 

As for the LP . I do have concerns about pack mobility esp. since the fracture from Beaufort to the NW tip of Greenland opened up? The Trans Arctic drift ice is no longer 'fixed' to the coast so will we see movement along the corridor toward Fram?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Neven's take on the latest PIOMAS update. http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/06/piomas-june-2015.html

 

So 6th smallest, volume dropping very quickly, but not as quick as the likes of 2012 and 2011.

 

[knocker]

And

 

New study shows that when winter sea ice concentrations are above average in the East Greenland, Barents and Kara seas, ice concentrations tend to be below average in the Bering Sea. This spatial pattern of anomalies linking the North Atlantic and North Pacific is related to the sea level pressure pattern that drives surface winds and their associated movement of atmospheric heat. These conditions are in turn linked to cooler or warmer than average sea surface temperatures that provide memory, influencing regional sea ice concentrations the following autumn. Thus, while the atmosphere is critical in setting the spatial patterns of sea ice variability, the ocean provides the memory for reemergence.

 

Nevens

 

ASI 2015 update 2: take me to the other side

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/06/asi-2015-update-2-take-me-to-the-other-side.html

[stewfox]

Neven's take on the latest PIOMAS update. http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/06/piomas-june-2015.html

 

So 6th smallest, volume dropping very quickly, but not as quick as the likes of 2012 and 2011.

 

Good to see the recovery under way thats my read ??

 

""""On the other hand, big droppers like 2010 and 2012 have increased their lead over this second rebound year, and the latter now has almost 2000 km3 less ice than 2015, just like 2011. The difference with 2013 has gone down 240 km3 to 998 km3 more ice now, and the difference with 2014 has increased with 82 km3 to 1208 km3."""

[Interitus]

Good to see the recovery under way thats my read ??

 

 

Yet at the same time PIOMAS volume recently fell below 2007 and with extent at record lows surely it is only a favourable summer from ice levels plummeting again? That is a very fragile recovery, more like a return to the long term downward trend from the abysmal low of 2012.

[stewfox]

Yet at the same time PIOMAS volume recently fell below 2007 and with extent at record lows surely it is only a favourable summer from ice levels plummeting again? That is a very fragile recovery, more like a return to the long term downward trend from the abysmal low of 2012.

 

Given we have had much less melt pond activity this May cf previous years I see nothing to get concerned about. 

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

[BornFromTheVoid]

Given we have had much less melt pond activity this May cf previous years I see nothing to get concerned about. 

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

 

Are you sure about there being much less melt ponds? The NSIDC link doesn't support that view.

 

Also, lowest extent on record for the last 19 consecutive days, with the CT area going into lowest on record territory early next week, is nothing at all to be concerned about wrt the Arctic?

[keithlucky]

Are you sure about there being much less melt ponds? The NSIDC link doesn't support that view.

 

Also, lowest extent on record for the last 19 consecutive days, with the CT area going into lowest on record territory early next week, is nothing at all to be concerned about wrt the Arctic?

Arctic ice thickness has increased over the last 8yrs according to Piomas http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst.png    Arctic ice is almost identical to 20yrs ago so were NSIDC get there information from ?.

Edited June 6, 2015 by keithlucky

[knocker]

Almost identical to 1995?

[shuggee]

Another PIOMAS graph shows the fuller picture:

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Great animation by Wipneus showing the loss of ice in the Kara sea over the last week.

 

[knocker]

That's quite impressive.

[stewfox]

 

 

Are you sure about there being much less melt ponds? The NSIDC link doesn't support that view.

 

Also, lowest extent on record for the last 19 consecutive days, with the CT area going into lowest on record territory early next week, is nothing at all to be concerned about wrt the Arctic?

 

IJIS is slowing down as predicted (some early ice left the north Hudson bay much earlier then usual which had a impact.)

 

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N

 

re the report

 

"""""

 

Overall, May was cooler than average over the central Arctic Ocean, the East Greenland Sea and the East Siberian and Laptev seas, notably north of the Greenland Ice Sheet where air temperatures at the 925 millibar level (about 3,000 feet above the surface) were 2 to 4 degrees Celsius

Temperature conditions during May may prove to be important, given the potential role that melt ponds in spring play in the evolution of the ice cover throughout summer. For example, during years with fewer melt ponds in May, September sea ice extent tends to be higher than during years with more melt ponds""""""

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

 

 

IJIS is slowing down as predicted (some early ice left the north Hudson bay much earlier then usual which had a impact.)

 

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N

 

re the report

 

"""""

 

Overall, May was cooler than average over the central Arctic Ocean, the East Greenland Sea and the East Siberian and Laptev seas, notably north of the Greenland Ice Sheet where air temperatures at the 925 millibar level (about 3,000 feet above the surface) were 2 to 4 degrees Celsius

Temperature conditions during May may prove to be important, given the potential role that melt ponds in spring play in the evolution of the ice cover throughout summer. For example, during years with fewer melt ponds in May, September sea ice extent tends to be higher than during years with more melt ponds""""""

 

 

Yep, I'd expect the slowdown to continue for another few days too. But that's all completely normal, even 2012 saw some short term slowdowns. Most of the slowdown is due to growth of ice in the Greenland sea, which as I'm sure you're aware, is about as useful as a short term increase in the Hudson Bay coverage.

 

The thing about temps in the central Arctic in May is even in an above average month temp-wise, things are still unlikely to get above freezing. In May, it's the temps in more peripheral areas that contribute to melting.

[John Badrick]

Arctic ice thickness has increased over the last 8yrs according to Piomas http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst.png    Arctic ice is almost identical to 20yrs ago so were NSIDC get there information from ?.

This image says a lot. There really is not much difference in the amount of ice from 20 years ago and look at the difference in snow cover!! Staggering how much more snow there is this year than there was 20 years ago!! Wasn't the arctic meant to be snow and ice free 2 years ago ???

[Interitus]

This image says a lot. There really is not much difference in the amount of ice from 20 years ago and look at the difference in snow cover!! Staggering how much more snow there is this year than there was 20 years ago!! Wasn't the arctic meant to be snow and ice free 2 years ago ???

 

The images are from http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

Please see the message - "Note: snow cover data not updating ... we hope to have a new data source by July, 2015."

There is very little snow across the northern hemisphere at the moment.

With regards to snow, it is interesting to follow the discussion over on the Arctic Ice Forum where an intriguing observation shows an apparent link over the last few years between snow cover on the sea ice in early to mid June and the September ice minimum in extent and shape/location. This ties in nicely with melt pond formation, lowered albedo and simple thermal insulation. If the correlation holds this year then current forecasts suggest that it may be a devastating summer for the sea ice.

Edited June 10, 2015 by Interitus

[Gray-Wolf]

As far as Arctic warming is concerned the snow went before the ice!

 

Earlier and earlier melt out dates were being recorded at the end of last century and the noughties saw this trend step up. Obviously the loss of land/ocean snow cover leads to lower albedo and so higher temps ( record high temps are constantly being set around the basin since snow cover failed).