Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

[Rain123]

Looking forward to this thundery period.

[legritter]

Looking forward to this thundery period.

Yes at last some action ,but where are all the posters tonight .Its been an action day for some today but very hit and miss ,here on mendip it was more like an autumn morning but muggy out there .

so it looks like a noteworthy weather event is looming for later this wednesday and lasting into friday but details as always still unknown ,but does look like some high rainfall totals spread about .

I,m keeping my fingers crossed for a nice cracking storm  overnight please ,flashes of lightning you can read a book by and overhead thunder to bring the soot down the chimney ,all the cutlery hidden away and television unplugged ,and put the dog under the stairs ,There certainly is the potential there gang just need the dice to fall right ,cheers   .

[Summer Sun]

Good chance of some thunderstorms in the south on Thursday then the north on Friday

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/33857082

[todd1970]

Huge storm in Bremen Germany right now ... how id love to be there right now... 

 

http://www.bremen-tourismus.de/webcam-marktplatz

[William Grimsley]

Looking forward to a good night of thunderstorms on Wednesday Night. It looks like many southerners will be very happy to experience some proper thundery weather for once! Let's hope I get hit this time! About bloody time!

Edited August 10, 2015 by William Grimsley

[dusk]

Looks like there could possibly, maybe, some outside chance of some action here in Salop later this week then.

 

Then again..........it could be a case of 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looking forward to a good night of thunderstorms on Wednesday Night. It looks like many southerners will be very happy to experience some proper thundery weather for once! Let's hope I get hit this time! About bloody time!

Looking promising now I must say.

Some quite concerning rainfall amounts if the latest GFS comes off.

[Thunderbolt_]

10 August time-lapse. The thunderstorm is approaximately 13:30:

 

 

Apologies if my editing is a bit off too, I currently have five glasses of wine being processed my body.

Edited August 10, 2015 by Thunderbolt_

[lassie23]

It was looking good down south for storms this week, but now it looks like Thursday is the best day but thunder looks reserved for the SW and Wales. Might just have plain showers here without the extra toppings. The forecast still can and will change later in the week. The only certainty is that the settled spell is coming to an end.

Edited August 11, 2015 by lassie23

[Mesoscale]

Morning all just spent the last hour watching aircraft on approach to Heathrow before work, pretty cool seeing them as some of them have flown from Hong Kong and Malaysia! Nice bit of lightning going up the French coast this morning, here's hoping for Thursday but I can't complain as I have had two nights of some of the best storms I have ever seen in the UK!

Edited August 11, 2015 by Mesoscale

[Weather-history]

10 August time-lapse. The thunderstorm is approaximately 13:30:

 

 

Apologies if my editing is a bit off too, I currently have five glasses of wine being processed my body.

From the other side of Manchester

[Rain123]

I'm no expert, but CAPE charts don't look particularly high for Thursday. I think it has downgraded since Supacell's post. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Loads of interest coming up now re Wednesday Night/ Thursday.. 

 

Already some model difference but this is expected at 2 days out.. 

 

This setup though I find slightly different to the previous ones.. 

 

Instead of a push of warm air and a few fronts or troughs this is a surge of humid warm air with the a low pressure system slap bang on top of us as opposed to being out west and drawing the storms up .. 

 

Given also where this low pressure system is pulling up from (Bay of biscay) the warm and humid air will be well and truly wrapped up within it.

 

Currently subject to change, Central southern England and the spine of the country look best.. Far east and west just not cutting it I don't think. But then some models disagree.. 

 

But pinch of salt and all that this is all subject to change and we know what Thunderstorms are like 

[William Grimsley]

I'm no expert, but CAPE charts don't look particularly high for Thursday. I think it has downgraded since Supacell's post. 

Which CAPE? ML CAPE is still high at 1000 j/kg + on NMM for southern counties, especially south western areas.

 

Morning everyone! Well, it's looking like a potentially thundery night on Wednesday Night but now my attention is switching more to Thursday and possibly Friday now. The BBC have a few thunderstorm symbols for me but I wonder if they are overdoing it? We shall have to wait and see! I'm going to keep quiet, as it might help my chances!

Edited August 11, 2015 by William Grimsley

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I'm no expert, but CAPE charts don't look particularly high for Thursday. I think it has downgraded since Supacell's post. 

 

Looks okay..

 

 

 

 

Although changes are ahead 

Which CAPE? ML CAPE is still high at 1000 j/kg + on NMM for southern counties, especially south western areas.

 

Morning everyone! Well, it's looking like a potentially thundery night on Wednesday Night but now my attention is switching more to Thursday and possibly Friday now. The BBC have a few thunderstorm symbols for me but I wonder if they are overdoing, we shall have to wait and see! I'm going to keep quiet, as it might help my chances!

 

This is the chart for you buddy 

 

[William Grimsley]

Looks okay..

 

 

 

 

Although changes are ahead 

That's SB CAPE, not at all relevant for Wednesday Night/Thursday's activity.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

That's SB CAPE, not at all relevant for Wednesday Night/Thursday's activity.

 

Its another ingredient for the mixing pot though.. 

 

More ingredients better storms 

 

 

Although he is right.. It is a tad down 

[Cableguy]

Looks like a spell of heavy thundery rain for most with the odd isolated storm maybe thrown into the mix......Expecting a fair bit of rain here but not a lightning show.

[Nick F]

Plume of warm moist air topped with an EML characterised by steep lapse rates drifts north across southern Brtiain Wednesday night, GFS shows some 300-500 j/kg MLCAPE along the leading edge of the EML. Cooling aloft as upper trough drifts in from the west and the EML could produce some elevated storms tomorrow night across S England and S Wales. Then on Thursday we see a more widespread destabilisation of the plume drifting north, as a shortwave trough moves in across SW Britain in the afternoon before moving E/NE across all parts by Friday morning.

 

So an interesting few days coming up to end the week. 00z ECMWF showing some high rainfall rates developing over England and Wales during Thursday and into Friday, so obviously a lot of energy being released as the plume destbailises. Details difficult to pinpoint for now, but the threat for thunder looks fairly widespread across southern England, E Anglia Midlands and Wales for now.

Edited August 11, 2015 by Nick F

[Rain123]

That's SB CAPE, not at all relevant for Wednesday Night/Thursday's activity.

Oh, ok, sorry. So  I take it these will be elevated then. I hope so, I prefer elevated storms. 

I'll remove my signature for these heavily used discussions, I know it gets in the way sometimes.

Edited August 11, 2015 by Rain123

[Summer Sun]

NMM has the heavy thundery rain pushing up to the south coast around midnight

 

 

Then during the early hours of Thursday it continues to move north though weakening the further north it gets

 

 

By early Friday another area of heavy & potentially thundery rain develops in the south initially

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Be good to see how this one pans out and which model gets it this time 

[William Grimsley]

Looks okay..

 

 

 

 

Although changes are ahead 

 

This is the chart for you buddy 

 

If only I actually get in the white/purple area of rain, that would be tremendous!

[Azazel]

Lincs looks the place to be then;)

[Supacell]

As has been said the charts I posted yesterday were for MLCAPE. Storms overnight Weds into Thurs do look elevated with a fair amount of lightning and copious rainfall for some. Could be some gusty winds around these storms too.