Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

[stainesbloke]

Im quite liking the look of this Weekend more than last week, there is a few other factors showing on this compared too last week, this time there seems to be a lot more heat further West across the majority of the Country and also convergence zones, along with decent ML cape and even some SB cape too. Should be some good cloud structures with the good wind sheer if this pulls off

Agree, possibly the best storm potential this year so far plus a hot day on Sat fingers crossed. Will be holidaying on Hayling Island this weekend so will hopefully get some good views of any storms.

[Summer Sun]

Here's the beebs weekly forecast from last night including a look at the weekend

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/33997191

[William Grimsley]

Looks like my area could be hit quite nicely on Friday Night. Not getting my hopes up whatsoever.

[Nick L]

To avoid the daft hysterics of last time, can we all remember that if an area is deemed at risk of seeing storms, it does not necessarily mean you'll see anything.

 

In the US you'll get areas the size of the UK (or greater) under a watch, yet 95% of that area will get diddly squat.

 

ECM showing the greatest risk over the Midlands.

[NUT]

If we don't get any storms up here (which I would say is a little unlikely maybe) the rain could very well be something else. Could get a real drenching out of this

[Winter Cold]

Always fun having something to look forward too! This Saturday evening could still deliver. I dont know what else to look at (what we have access to) other than the high res GFS CAPE & LI charts but the 0z this morning still looks nice

 

[Speedway Slider]

Ok, so it's Leicester v Wolverhampton Saturday night (speedway)

I am a track Marshall so spend most of the night in the middle of the track! I am the tallest structure normally for around 30/40 yards, should I be worried for Saturday evening!!

[Costa Del Fal]

Ok, so it's Leicester v Wolverhampton Saturday night (speedway)

I am a track Marshall so spend most of the night in the middle of the track! I am the tallest structure normally for around 30/40 yards, should I be worried for Saturday evening!!

Would have thought the risk would be greater in Wolverhampton than Leicester at this stage. Edited August 20, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[Summer Sun]

During day light hours NMM keeps the rain mainly in the west given the heat and humidity it could be torrential at times with some thunderstorms and flash flooding possible

 

 

A very warm and locally hot day on Saturday

 

Edited August 20, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Thunderbolt_]

My guess is for Saturday evening's potential to be mostly a band of thundery rain. Given the CAPE however, there could be quite a lot of lightning and thunder in there, so it could potentially develop into some sort of squall line, given the fact that this would be a cold front.

 

[William Grimsley]

NMM seems to be going for severe thunderstorms through SW England, Wales and NW England on Saturday Night, current predictions look like the worst going west but I'm not at all sure if this will turn out. The last time thunderstorms went west we got loads later on in the night.

Edited August 20, 2015 by William Grimsley

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

So nothing likely in the central southern counties and London areas on Saturday?

All the forecasts I see put the potential in the Midlands, am I correct in assuming this?

[Supacell]

Still a long way off in terms of getting the locations right but as things stand it is looking quite good for some places to see thunderstorm activity this weekend. The main risk is currently looking to be across Central and Western areas through Saturday afternoon and evening with some decent CAPE being shown and this is coupled with ample deep layer shear in western parts to promote the risk of organised thunderstorms. I am in agreement with Thunderbolt with the suggestion of a squall line or similar late on Saturday across western England (on current runs). Hot, humid air looks to be pumped northwards (28-30c potentially in East Anglia and the SE) as an almost stationery cold/warm front sits across the west under an area of developing low pressure that is moving north and developing from the continent - BANG

 

SBCAPE and Deep layer shear

 

 

 

Wind convergence looks to occur along this cold front

 

 

PWAT values are very high under a warm (hot), humid airmass being sucked up from the continent. This means that the atmosphere will be capable of holding a lot of water and dump a lot of rain

 

 

GFS is liking the idea of a rather high supercell parameter brought about by adding some helicity into the mix - chart courtesy of lightning wizard

 

 

Overnight the MLCAPE increases across southern parts and this may result in an increase in lightning activity from elevated storms pushing up from the continent. Meanwhile torrential rain continues elsewhere, but lightning activity may begin to die down going by this chart in more northern parts (reduction of CAPE)

 

 

One of the difficulties here is the fact that low pressure looks to be developing over us or just to the south and this makes forecasting exactly where storms or heavy rain will be even more difficult than it normally is for the likes of the Met Office and BBC. As we are still 2 days away the areas at risk will change, and may not pan out at all like this forecast. This is a forecast based on TODAYS runs.

 

 

 

 

[Dean E]

Bets on the push towards the East with this setup? 

 

Whatever happens, A LOT of rain could fall over a 24 hour period under these conditions...

 

[vladthemert]

hope not we cant take anymore rain.  We had 24 hours worth over monday tues 21 mm.   Yesterday sinkhole appeared not big in size but deep 4 foot, it shows how liquidated the ground is.

 

http://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/Sink-hole-feet-deep-appears-Grimsby-road/story-27638095-detail/story.html

 

[Mokidugway]

Call that a sinkhole ... !!!!

[ANYWEATHER]

An interesting day on Saturday to say the least! Some flooding rain is likely in some places ,but of course any precipitation charts will be subject to great change within the next 48hrs...

[vladthemert]

Call that a sinkhole ...image.jpg !!!!

 

aye we only do small  is that pic the famous mexico sinkholes

[William Grimsley]

Looks like everything might just fit into place for the south west!

[stainesbloke]

So nothing likely in the central southern counties and London areas on Saturday?

All the forecasts I see put the potential in the Midlands, am I correct in assuming this?

Yes, looks like the West of England and later parts of the Midlands are most at risk from storms/torrential rain on Sat. Much of CS, SE and E England at the moment look sunny and hot - 30C possible. All good IMHO giving those storms further W and N fuel...then the cold front moves slowly E overnight on Sat, giving the SE the storm risk then. That's how it looks to my amateur eyes. Hopefully that cold front will stay out West for longer building the heat ahead of it. Could all go wrong as is usual lol, we'll see, am certainly not getting any hopes up, just hoping to see some hot sun to be honest!

[Weather-history]

Wow

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-34000059

[The PIT]

Still doesnt look bad still a bit west and north for my liking but we won't get better detail until tomorrow night.

[Mokidugway]

 

aye we only do small  is that pic the famous mexico sinkholes

guatamala 2010 I think ,100 metres deep !!.

[The PIT]

Local forecast has light rain early hours then dull and humid no storms at all. Plus no heat wave. So the jury is out.

[Cableguy]

Looking forward to a bit of warmth down here on Saturday and also the meltdowns when people don't have the storm of the century right on their doorstep.