Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

[Rain123]

Paul Blight on UKweatherworld has given an analysis why it didn't go to plan

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/108903-convective-synoptic-discussion-weds-12th-august-to-18z-to-friday-14th-august-18z/page__pid__948692#entry948692

A rival forum?!

[William Grimsley]

Heavy rain here this morning and it looks like that will continue for quite a while here. I was expecting this rain would be thundery but that is not the case at all. Well, better luck next time. I'm not trusting the Met Office or BBC anymore.

Edited August 14, 2015 by William Grimsley

[BlueHedgehog074]

Would agree with one of the posters above that there is more to life than storms. Though perhaps if storms is your main hobby and/or you do frequent storm chasing as part of your job, then can see how it could be a big deal for a few people. Also, at the same time, I can understand the annoyance when our storm shields remain rock solid during thundery events. I feel it would have helped if the Low Pressure system to the South of the UK was further West/North-West and allowed more of a clearer Southerly/South-Easterly flow to get drawn up from the continent instead of the messy Easterly/East-South-Easterly flow to allow temperatures to rise more and help unleash some explosive convection. The latter also helped by the Low Pressure system still being close enough to provide some forcing for storms to arise.

I could be wrong, but just think the Low over Southern UK (now directly over us) was a little unfavourably positioned for those away from the far South-East/East to see much storm activity.

While some forecasts perhaps did over-estimate the storm possibilities, think they did the best they could. Storms aren't easy to forecast, really.

Apart from those great storms some of us got in early July, and I think also some of those torrential storms the South-East got a few weeks later, for the frequency of thundery weather, this year has certainly been under-whelming. One thing that would personally be nice is to see some proper late-afternoon homegrown storms with heavy hail - something that has been lacking here.

Edited August 14, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine

[johnholmes]

It illustrates very well the huge difficulty in forecasting precisely, rainfall totals, when, where, let alone storms in any locality. It would be a good idea for those upset by this 'so called fail' to read the Guides on the relevant topics, learn and understand just how complex it all is.

Also a warning note for winter-rainfall predictions are far less complex than snowfall predictions, 8 more variables in that than with rain.

Meteorology is fun and a great hobby but there really is too much of yah boo its not fair in so many posts. It is a great hobby to read and learn about giving everyone more understanding of its complexities. Give it a go please, you will be surprised how enjoyable the learning will be.

To the facts, those in the southern and SE'ern counties who had homes and cars flooded and lesser inconveniences will not be calling it a miss I am sure.

Edited August 14, 2015 by johnholmes

[Nick L]

I can't understand why so many of you call it a "bust" and continue to slag off the Met Office just because you don't see a bolt of lightning.  I think some of you need to get a bit of a life apart from dreaming about storms.  If anyone knows what triggers a thunderstorm they would be a millionaire wouldn't they?  As far as I saw today the Met highlighted areas in the Mid / South East of England this morning and said they were "at risk" of receiving a severe storm and to my knowledge some counties down south did.  I think a few of you need to grow up a wee bit and get a life of some kind.  I like following this forum as I am fascinated by storms, but there are far too many people out there who are wayyyyyy too obsessed and get upset when storms don't happen for them.

 

Absolutely spot on post, sir.

Heavy rain here this morning and it looks like that will continue for quite a while here. I was expecting this rain would be thundery but that is not the case at all. Well, better luck next time. I'm not trusting the Met Office or BBC anymore.

 

Why? Because they said a risk of storms and you didn't see anything? Bit childish don't you think?

[TwisterGirl81]

Why oh why do people moan about people moaning about the weather....it's an british trait, are you not british?  it's a weather forum, if you can't take people being dissapointed there were minimal thunderstorms storms in the uk compared to what was forecast then maybe you are on the wrong forum.

 

I was never getting my hopes up because mother nature will do as she pleases and forecasting storms does not seem to be cetain weather agencies best quality but by the very nature that's 'fairly' understandable.

[Dami]

Thunder is always a risk, I watched a cell which looked promising hit me with just about nothing in the end, but i expect it went on to give someone a nice show. 

 

I wanted some rain for the garden, so i'm happy.

 

Maybe the weather will surprise me, I was quite surprised to see the mist this morning, it is almost 9am and still looks quite murky out. Looks like autumn. 

 

And my headache I had has gone too.

[Buzzard]

I just think the met office should concentrate on the weather for the next couple of days and a week at the most. Long range forecasts just seem a waste of resources!

 

Storms etc and snow in the winter are all good fun - it's just some get a bit toooo frustrated when they don't get any!!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Heavy rain here this morning and it looks like that will continue for quite a while here. I was expecting this rain would be thundery but that is not the case at all. Well, better luck next time. I'm not trusting the Met Office or BBC anymore.

Remember what I said WIllliam. Look what Belgium and Holland got yesterday, because of the proximity of land fetch and proper juice in the atmosphere without being watered down by cooler waters. You win some, you lose some. We won on July 3/4th, but had to accept defeat yesterday. 

[Paul]

Why oh why do people moan about people moaning about the weather....it's an british trait, are you not british?  it's a weather forum, if you can't take people being dissapointed there were minimal thunderstorms storms in the uk compared to what was forecast then maybe you are on the wrong forum.

 

I was never getting my hopes up because mother nature will do as she pleases and forecasting storms does not seem to be cetain weather agencies best quality but by the very nature that's 'fairly' understandable.

 

This is a thread to discuss the weather not moan about it, particularly to the extent where it's being ruined for others who don't want to read page after page of whinging and whining. 

 

That's why we set up a thread for it:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83475-where-are-my-storms/

 

When it comes to storms, we all know that they're very localised features, one place may see one, a mile down the road will not. So if you look at the simple odds of a storm actually passing overhead, it's actually quite low even in a situation where the storms are widespread. Maybe it's a case that people need to reset expectations a tad - a risk of storms, means a risk of storms, not a nailed on dead cert guarantee of them..

[Rain123]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmehFMps95Y Some footage of that Belgian storm yesterday and by the looks of that video,  it was mental!

Edited August 14, 2015 by Rain123

[legritter]

Its been a very interesting few days ,ok i didnt get my storms but it was with interest to watch this weather event unfold .

having all these tools available in this modern age is great for our hobby ,its just a case of weather watching interest etc will always be one of dissapointment but also surprises ,If many had read what the professionals were saying and not what certain media outlooks were saying [news papers ] not so many posters would have been so dissapointed ,but hay some welcome rain and there could be some fun later today [for some ] .cheers 

[Summer Sun]

Plenty of rain over Darlo this morning if the sun can break out through the cloud further isolated thunderstorms could break out this afternoon the SE seems the favoured spot for this but they could break out just about anywhere

[TwisterGirl81]

This is a thread to discuss the weather not moan about it, particularly to the extent where it's being ruined for others who don't want to read page after page of whinging and whining. 

 

That's why we set up a thread for it:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83475-where-are-my-storms/

 

When it comes to storms, we all know that they're very localised features, one place may see one, a mile down the road will not. So if you look at the simple odds of a storm actually passing overhead, it's actually quite low even in a situation where the storms are widespread. Maybe it's a case that people need to reset expectations a tad - a risk of storms, means a risk of storms, not a nailed on dead cert guarantee of them..

 

Chill.

 

And yet those very same people moan when they don't get their hot weather or snow, it's inevitable on a 'weather' forum,, you take the good with the bad.  As long as it doesn't get personal then I don't see the issue, I did however read alot of comments of people antaginising people who were dissapointmented in the lack of light show.

 

I think people need to lighten up, I certainly have a chuckle when reading people's comments as they chuck their toys out of the pram!  But we all have a common interest in the weather, lets focus on that.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Plenty of rain over Darlo this morning if the sun can break out through the cloud further isolated thunderstorms could break out this afternoon the SE seems the favoured spot for this but they could break out just about anywhere

 

Sun out here 

[Thunderbolt_]

Some of the rubbish that has been posted in here overnight is rediculous. Yes, I understand that it is frustrating that the forecasts didn't materialise and you didn't get a thunderstorm, but in reality that is the nature of the weather. Forecasts are made through computer calculations, whereas thunderstorms and indeed any type of weather, are made through natural processes. There is no "perfect" way to predict the weather, sorry.

 

So some of you stop the wingeing, and let it slide by, because it really is getting tiring. And Trancemaster1966, I couldn't agree with your post any more mate.

Edited August 14, 2015 by Thunderbolt_

[Mokidugway]

All quiet now after last nights violent super cellular storm ...

[ANYWEATHER]

I think it's very easy to sit behind a computer screen and ridicule someone's thoughts ,I think we are all guilty of it at times including myself.Anyway, I'm very pleased with the outcome of this weather event if that's the right term, not because I did not have a thunderstorm ,I was not expecting it anyway, but I'm delighted with the 30mms of rain that fell. The gardens were desperate for it and mother nature done a grand job. Pointless picking fault with forecasts that said a risk of storms and you never got one, the clue is in the phrasing RISK and that is what it means!!! The worst case for forecasters in the UK is predicting thunderstorms and snow. It really is a forecasters nightmare, and slaging forecasters off is certainly not right. Hey,that's why weather forecasters are thick skinned and deaf in one ear!

Edited August 14, 2015 by ANYWEATHER

[Lauren]

I think the fault more lies with people's own optimism. They hear 'risk' and think 'absolutely dead certain'. Then of course when the risk doesn't work out for them, they throw the toys out of the pram. Fair enough if they said 'there will definitely be a huge thunderstorm right over your head', but they don't.

 

Honestly most of us have been here long enough that we should have learnt by now to never, ever get your hopes up with storms, be realistic and if anything happens it's a bonus. For people who claim to be weather nuts,we sure seem to forget that by nature it is generally not so predictable and will do it's own thing.

 

Honestly, next time there's a storm risk, just think what 'risk' actually means and don't get your hopes up. That way you can ONLY be happy if something shows up. 

[William Grimsley]

I apologise if I made any acusation's towards the BBC, Met Office or Netweather members, this was not intended. However, I do feel that people should think before they speak when they acuse people of being "childish" when they are only stating an opinion. Anyway, back to the weather...

[Mokidugway]

Tbh ,until we can model every cubic ft of air ,forcasts will be hit and miss ,and don't forget the Iberian low did spawn some fantastic storms, and if the channel wasn't there a chase potential !!.

[MP-R]

Tbh ,until we can model every cubic ft of air ,forcasts will be hit and miss ,and don't forget the Iberian low did spawn some fantastic storms, and if the channel wasn't there a chase potential !! .

 

I bet if the Channel wasn't there, most storms coming up from France and Spain would survive into the UK.

[sunnijim]

A quick half peneth on how i would define a 'Bust'.

Most reputable forecast agencies calling for widespread thunderstorms.Nothing happens anywhere apart from bubbling cloud and a few showers.Perhaps then a dissapointed rant by storm enthusiasts might be warrented?

A 'bust' cannot be the 'risk of thunderstorms/high rainfall' going on to produce the days top news story due to floods and lightning strikes in the risk areas!

Call it a bust in yoby by all means,but its a little harsh to slag off forecast agencies when from what i saw this time they nailed the highest risk area this time.

The thing that went a little skew wiff from the forecast point of view was rainfall totals toward the West,but a high level of uncertainty was mentioned.

Anyway,plenty to watch for today as forecasts again this morning mention the cold front turning thundery toward the East later this afternoon.

[Rain123]

Does anyone know the scientific reasons for storms not getting across the channel? Is it something to do with convection?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

A quick half peneth on how i would define a 'Bust'.

Most reputable forecast agencies calling for widespread thunderstorms.Nothing happens anywhere apart from bubbling cloud and a few showers.Perhaps then a dissapointed rant by storm enthusiasts might be warrented?

A 'bust' cannot be the 'risk of thunderstorms/high rainfall' going on to produce the days top news story due to floods and lightning strikes in the risk areas!

Call it a bust in yoby by all means,but its a little harsh to slag off forecast agencies when from what i saw this time they nailed the highest risk area this time.

The thing that went a little skew wiff from the forecast point of view was rainfall totals toward the West,but a high level of uncertainty was mentioned.

Anyway,plenty to watch for today as forecasts again this morning mention the cold front turning thundery toward the East later this afternoon.

Estofex and Nick F were certainly bang on the money. The BBC seemed to exaggerate lightning activity further north. But the risk was certainly there, and it is their duty to give a more broader outlook to Joe public, Estofex and forums like this go into the depth much more. I keep telling my family and mates exactly what the case is, but they still try and dispute by saying 'well my iphone says this' nonsense!