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August 2015 CET forecasts

Roger J Smith
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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
Posted

August CET averages and extremes

(all of these are mean daily values, the average of daily max and min)

24.9 ... warmest August day (1st, 1995)

19.2 ... warmest August, 1995

18.9 ... second warmest August, 1997
18.7 ... third warmest August, 1975

18.6 ... fourth warmest August, 1947

18.3 ... fifth warmest Augusts (tied 1747 and 2003)

18.2 ... seventh warmest August, 1911

18.1 ... eighth warmest August, 1955

18.0 ... ninth warmest August, 1990

 

16.9 ... 2013 mean

16.6 ... 2012 mean

16.4 ... average of 1981-2010 and 2001-2014
16.2 ... average of 1971-2000

15.8 ... average of 1961-1990, and 1701-1800, and 1901-2000
15.6 ... average of 1659-2013
15.4 ... average of 1801-1900
15.1 ... average of 1659-1700
 

14.9 ... 2014 mean
13.7 ... coldest August since 1956 (1986)
13.5 ... coldest August since 1912 (1956)
13.0 ... second coldest Augusts (tie) (1694,95)
12.9 ... coldest August, 1912

9.5 ... coldest day to 16th (16th, 1888) ... earliest sub-10 value in August

8.8 ... coldest August day (26th, 1864) ... although it was 7.1 C on 1 Sept of 1816

_________________________________________________________

 

Enter by the end of the day Friday 31st July without penalty, or before end of Monday 3rd August with increasing time penalties.

 

 

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J10
J10

Results now in.   Monthly (confirmed from above) - 4 got it spot on - summer blizzard, Stargazer, Weather-history and coldest winter   Summer Result - simshady holds onto win with summer blizzard

Roger J Smith
Roger J Smith

From the 1981-2010 data, the period when two-week (14 days) periods average 17.0 rounded off or higher happens to be 16-29 July, to 30 July-12 August. The average is 17.1 rounded off for two-week peri

weatherguru14
weatherguru14

3.6

hillbilly Accomplished

hillbilly

Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m
Posted

17.3 ,thanks!

  • Like 1
JeffC Accomplished

JeffC

Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
Posted

try 15.1 please - if July up here is anything to go by it ain't gonna be a scorcher!

  • Like 1
Relativistic Seasoned

Relativistic

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
Posted (edited)

1947 must have been incredible. The coldest February ever followed by, what was at the time, the warmest August ever. I thought 2013 was extreme (13th coldest March and coldest for 130 years, followed by the joint 10th warmest July), but obviously not!

Edited by 22nov10blast
  • Like 1
BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted (edited)

A preliminary 14.7C thanks.

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
  • Like 2
simshady Rising Star

simshady

Posted
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, windy, wet, gloomy. Can't abide Sun and heat.
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
Posted

16C please.

Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

16.5C...... All down hill after this one   :cold: :D 

  • Like 1
Robbie Garrett Seasoned

Robbie Garrett

Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK
Posted (edited)

16.9c

Edited by Robbie Garrett
  • Like 1
Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

3.6

Are you for real!........ That cannot be taken seriously  :fool: 

  • Like 3
Midlands Ice Age Maestro

Midlands Ice Age

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
Posted

Are you for real!........ That cannot be taken seriously  :fool:

 

Must be a typo!!

Unless that mass of polar air is coming our way  :pardon:  :pardon:  :cc_confused:  :cc_confused:   

  • Like 2
Lettucing Gutted Community Regular

Lettucing Gutted

Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin'
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin'
Posted (edited)

Rest in pieces summer 2015!  20C  :(  Last sub 13C August in 1912.  Last sub 14C August in 1986.  Last sub 15C and last sub 15.5C August in 2014.

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
  • Like 2
BARRY Aficionado

BARRY

Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
Posted

14c  just below

an average august

  • Like 1
Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

3.6

Are you going to freeze the Atlantic then  :rofl:

  • Like 3
BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

Below is the August CET from 1659-2014 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

 

7PxLAsj.png

 

 

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 15.5 and 17.5C after corrections. The average August following July's within that range is 15.8C.

 
The linear trend for the whole record is +0.13C per century. Following this trend gives an August CET of 15.9C.
The linear trend since 1850 is +0.64C per century. Following this trend gives an August CET of 16.3C.
The linear trend since 1950 is +1.93C per century. Following this trend gives an August CET of 16.6C.
The linear trend over the last 50 years is +1.73C per century. Following this trend gives an August CET of 16.6C.
The linear trend over the last 30 years is +1.57C per century. Following this trend gives an August CET of 16.9C.
 
It's been 29 years since a CET below 14.5C was recorded. The longest run without such a CET occurred between 1737 and 1771,  34 years. In stark contrast, during the 32 Augusts between 1881 and 1912, 11 Augusts were below 14.5C, more than 1 in 3.
  • Like 2
Bobd29 Enthusiast

Bobd29

Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
Posted

16.4 for me please

  • Like 1
summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Hat trick for the summer forecast range..

15.9C

Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted (edited)

16.0c please. Another month of watching the rest of Europe bake whilst the heat stops at Calais as usual. Fed up of it.

Edited by Costa Del Fal
  • Like 3
IanR Seasoned

IanR

Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan
Posted

all summer months since july 2014 have been below average   might as well include May 2015 for fun ,as it the transition month to summer

 

August 2014 below

May 2015     below

June 2015    below

July   2015    below,....more than likely now

August 2015 ......?  

 

I will go for 15.1 , another below average,  cold atlantic will still have a say 

  • Like 1
Relativistic Seasoned

Relativistic

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
Posted

Hopefully the disgusting heat in Europe stays clear of here for the most part, with perhaps one plume thrown in to give us a decent thunderstorm.

14.7C.

  • Like 3
summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

A preliminary 14.7C thanks.

 

Rare that your one to go that far away from average.

we will be lucky to even get a thundery plume

 

Be hard not to get one bit of warmth but by the last third of August it can start to feel a lot like Autumn regardless of the weather type simply due to light, wind and the usual weather. 

Relativistic Seasoned

Relativistic

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
Posted

Hopefully the disgusting heat in Europe stays clear of here for the most part, with perhaps one plume thrown in to give us a decent thunderstorm.

14.7C.

 

Changing this already, I'll go for 15.5C.

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