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August 2015 CET forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

August CET averages and extremes

(all of these are mean daily values, the average of daily max and min)


24.9 ... warmest August day (1st, 1995)

19.2 ... warmest August, 1995

18.9 ... second warmest August, 1997
18.7 ... third warmest August, 1975

18.6 ... fourth warmest August, 1947

18.3 ... fifth warmest Augusts (tied 1747 and 2003)

18.2 ... seventh warmest August, 1911

18.1 ... eighth warmest August, 1955

18.0 ... ninth warmest August, 1990

 

16.9 ... 2013 mean

16.6 ... 2012 mean

16.4 ... average of 1981-2010 and 2001-2014
16.2 ... average of 1971-2000

15.8 ... average of 1961-1990, and 1701-1800, and 1901-2000
15.6 ... average of 1659-2013
15.4 ... average of 1801-1900
15.1 ... average of 1659-1700

 

14.9 ... 2014 mean
13.7 ... coldest August since 1956 (1986)
13.5 ... coldest August since 1912 (1956)
13.0 ... second coldest Augusts (tie) (1694,95)
12.9 ... coldest August, 1912

9.5 ... coldest day to 16th (16th, 1888) ... earliest sub-10 value in August

8.8 ... coldest August day (26th, 1864) ... although it was 7.1 C on 1 Sept of 1816

_________________________________________________________

 

Enter by the end of the day Friday 31st July without penalty, or before end of Monday 3rd August with increasing time penalties.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

try 15.1 please - if July up here is anything to go by it ain't gonna be a scorcher!

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

1947 must have been incredible. The coldest February ever followed by, what was at the time, the warmest August ever. I thought 2013 was extreme (13th coldest March and coldest for 130 years, followed by the joint 10th warmest July), but obviously not!

Edited by 22nov10blast
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

A preliminary 14.7C thanks.

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Posted
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth

16C please.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

16.5C...... All down hill after this one   :cold: :D 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

3.6

Are you for real!........ That cannot be taken seriously  :fool: 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Are you for real!........ That cannot be taken seriously  :fool:

 

Must be a typo!!

Unless that mass of polar air is coming our way  :pardon:  :pardon:  :cc_confused:  :cc_confused:   

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

Rest in pieces summer 2015!  20C  :(  Last sub 13C August in 1912.  Last sub 14C August in 1986.  Last sub 15C and last sub 15.5C August in 2014.

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

3.6

Are you going to freeze the Atlantic then  :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Below is the August CET from 1659-2014 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

 

7PxLAsj.png

 

 

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 15.5 and 17.5C after corrections. The average August following July's within that range is 15.8C.

 
The linear trend for the whole record is +0.13C per century. Following this trend gives an August CET of 15.9C.
The linear trend since 1850 is +0.64C per century. Following this trend gives an August CET of 16.3C.
The linear trend since 1950 is +1.93C per century. Following this trend gives an August CET of 16.6C.
The linear trend over the last 50 years is +1.73C per century. Following this trend gives an August CET of 16.6C.
The linear trend over the last 30 years is +1.57C per century. Following this trend gives an August CET of 16.9C.
 
It's been 29 years since a CET below 14.5C was recorded. The longest run without such a CET occurred between 1737 and 1771,  34 years. In stark contrast, during the 32 Augusts between 1881 and 1912, 11 Augusts were below 14.5C, more than 1 in 3.
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Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

16.4 for me please

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Hat trick for the summer forecast range..

15.9C

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

16.0c please. Another month of watching the rest of Europe bake whilst the heat stops at Calais as usual. Fed up of it.

Edited by Costa Del Fal
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Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

all summer months since july 2014 have been below average   might as well include May 2015 for fun ,as it the transition month to summer

 

August 2014 below

May 2015     below

June 2015    below

July   2015    below,....more than likely now

August 2015 ......?  

 

I will go for 15.1 , another below average,  cold atlantic will still have a say 

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

Hopefully the disgusting heat in Europe stays clear of here for the most part, with perhaps one plume thrown in to give us a decent thunderstorm.

14.7C.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

A preliminary 14.7C thanks.

 

Rare that your one to go that far away from average.

we will be lucky to even get a thundery plume

 

Be hard not to get one bit of warmth but by the last third of August it can start to feel a lot like Autumn regardless of the weather type simply due to light, wind and the usual weather. 

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

Hopefully the disgusting heat in Europe stays clear of here for the most part, with perhaps one plume thrown in to give us a decent thunderstorm.

14.7C.

 

Changing this already, I'll go for 15.5C.

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