August 2015 CET forecasts

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/page-6#entry3241286

[coram]

!7.5 please

[Milhouse]

I know August 2006 didn't do it, but I'm not sure about the more recent Augusts.

 

I would hazard a guess, 2008, 2010, and 2014

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

I'm a day late!

 

however, I will take the penalty. I have to keep up my consistent run of making montly predictions!

 

 

it looks fairly dry first half of month so I'm going warm 17.8C

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's the estimate for the first 10 days based of the 12z GFS

 

14.9C to the 1st (14.9: -1.9C compared to the 81-10 average)

16.0C to the 2nd (17.2: +0.4)

16.5C to the 3rd (17.5: +0.6)

16.4C to the 4th (16.0: -1.0)

16.4C to the 5th (16.3: -1.1)

16.6C to the 6th (18.0: +0.8]

16.6C to the 7th (16.5: -0.4)

16.6C to the 8th (16.6: -0.2)

16.8C to the 9th (18.0: +1.1)

16.9C to the 10th (17.9: +1.1)

 

So the first 5 days look like averaging about 0.5C below the 81-10 average, but by day 10 it's back equal to average. No clear signs yet it seems.

 

[Roger J Smith]

1981-2010 CET averages

 

 

Date ____ Avg CET ___ cum CET _____ MAX 1772-2014 ___ MIN 1772-2014

 

 

_01______ 16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.9 1995 _____ 11.9 1888

_02 ______16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.6 1995 _____ 11.6 1822

_03 ______16.9 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.4 1990 _____ 10.5 1912

_04______ 17.0 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.4 1975 _____ 11.3 1812

_05 ______17.3 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.1 2003 _____ 11.3 1812

_06 ______17.2 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.5 2003 _____ 11.2 1823&1860

_07______ 16.9 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.8 1975 _____ 11.6 1898

_08 ______16.8 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.7 1975 _____ 11.5 1823

_09 ______16.9 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.9 2003 _____ 11.0 1931

_10______ 16.8 _______ 16.9 _______ 22.5 1773&1997__10.8 1892

 

_11 ______16.7 _______ 16.9 ________ 22.6 1997 _____ 10.8 1902

_12 ______16.8 _______ 16.9 ________ 22.2 1911 _____ 10.5 1912

_13______ 16.3 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.6 1911 _____ 10.5 1881

_14 ______16.7 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.3 1911 _____ 10.8 1912

_15 ______16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1893 _____ 10.3 1829

_16______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1947 ______ 9.5 1888

_17 ______16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.4 1876 _____ 10.9 1888

_18 ______16.6 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.6 1893 _____ 10.3 1830

_19 ______16.9 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.8 1932 _____ 10.4 1839

_20 ______16.7 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.9 1995 _____ 10.5 1920

 

_21 ______16.4 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1984 ______ 9.8 1850

_22______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.4 1817

_23 ______16.1 _______ 16.7 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.3 1877

_24 ______16.1 _______ 16.7 ________ 21.5 1990 ______ 9.1 1864

_25______ 15.8 _______ 16.7 ________ 20.9 1899 _____ 10.5 1787,1843&1864

_26 ______15.7 _______ 16.6 ________ 20.6 1870 ______ 8,8 1864

_27 ______15.4 _______ 16.6 ________ 22.8 1930 _____ 11.0 1885&1890

_28______ 15.1 _______ 16.5 ________ 23.0 1942 _____ 10.5 1919

_29 ______15.3 _______ 16.5 ________ 20.6 1930 ______ 9.1 1812

_30 ______15.5 _______ 16.5 _______ 19.8 1808&2008__ 9.5 1890

 

_31 ______15.2 _______ 16.4________ 21.3 1906 ______ 9.2 1833

 

 

 

Edited August 2, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[summer blizzard]

Interesting that we see a 2C drop from the 6th to months end and that August 8th is the CET peak.

[Summer Sun]

14.7c to the 1st

 

1.3c below the 61 to 90 average

 

2.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

A cool start, but things do look like warming up over the next few days, with the 06z GFS putting us back above average by the 8th.

[Roger J Smith]

Here's another feature of August records -- there have been no record low CET daily values since 1931, considerably further back than any other month except October which has the same year as its most recent occurrence as shown in this list:

 

MONTH ______ Most Recent Record Low CET daily mean

 

JAN _____________ 13 Jan 1987

FEB _____________ 11 Feb 1986

MAR ______________3 Mar 1965

APR _____________ 15 Apr 1966

MAY _____________ 27 May 1984

JUN ______________ 5 June 1991

JUL ______________10 July 1993

AUG ______________ 9 Aug 1931

SEP _____________ 15 Sep 1986

OCT _____________ 22 Oct 1931

NOV _____________ 28 Nov 2010

DEC _____________ 21 Dec 2010

[Milhouse]

Thankfully the outlook looks more summery with temperatures back in the low to mid 20s. A warm month is needed really to get this summer back up to average.

[Summer Sun]

15.7c to the 2nd

 

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

 

1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

16.5c to the 3rd

 

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

16.3c to the 4th

 

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

With a minimum today of 12.3C and maxima likely to reach about 21C, we should see an increase to 16.4C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

16.6C to the 6th (17.7: +0.5)

16.5C to the 7th (15.5: -1.4)

16.4C to the 8th (16.2: -0.6)

16.4C to the 9th (16.6: -0.3)

16.6C to the 10th (17.8: +0.9)

16.6C to the 11th (16.8: +0.1)

16.6C to the 12th (17.2: +0.4)

16.8C to the 13th (18.5: +2.3)

16.8C to the 14th (16.5: -0.2)

 

The next 10 days look like being about 0.1C above the 81-10 average, while the next 5 days should be about 0.4C below the 81-10 average.

 

[Lettucing Gutted]

 

With a minimum today of 12.3C and maxima likely to reach about 21C, we should see an increase to 16.4C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

16.6C to the 6th (17.7: +0.5)

16.5C to the 7th (15.5: -1.4)

16.4C to the 8th (16.2: -0.6)

16.4C to the 9th (16.6: -0.3)

16.6C to the 10th (17.8: +0.9)

16.6C to the 11th (16.8: +0.1)

16.6C to the 12th (17.2: +0.4)

16.8C to the 13th (18.5: +2.3)

16.8C to the 14th (16.5: -0.2)

 

The next 10 days look like being about 0.1C above the 81-10 average, while the next 5 days should be about 0.4C below the 81-10 average.

 

It looks like were on track for a consistently mild month with minor variability compared to the cooler but very variable June and July we have just had.

Edited August 5, 2015 by Goodbye Cold Weather! :(

[damianslaw]

It looks like were on track for a consistently mild month with minor variability compared to the cooler but very variable June and July we have just had.

 

 

Too early to call how the month as a whole is most likely to pan out, but I agree the outlook through until the middle of the month looks rather homogenous in terms of temperatures, with conditions never too far from average thanks to a typical August pattern setting in, with a flatter jet profile, however, we could very easily see a change to a more variable extreme pattern through the second half of the month just as we saw in late July, wouldn't take too much for the jet to align itself on an unfavourable southerly path once again, likewise wouldn't take too much for the trough to come unstuck to our NW pulling in a southerly airstream, things are very finally balanced this summer, subtle changes in the overall pattern will result in marked changes at the surface..

[Summer Sun]

16.2c to the 5th

 

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

Edited August 7, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

16.5c to the 6th

 

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[DavidHamble57]

Am I too late to add my guess. I will guess for 17°C. Some late warmth maybe.

[Summer Sun]

Am I too late to add my guess. I will guess for 17°C. Some late warmth maybe.

 

Unfortunately you are late for this month

 

Enter by the end of the day Friday 31st July without penalty, or before end of Monday 3rd August with increasing time penalties.

 

Check back towards the end of the month when the September thread will be opened

[Summer Sun]

16.2c to the 7th

 

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 10.5C, while maxima should reach the high 23s, so an increase to 16.3C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

16.3C to the 9th (16.5: -0.4)

16.5C to the 10th (18.4: +1.6)

16.4C to the 11th (15.1: -1.7)

16.3C to the 12th (15.7: -1.2)

16.4C to the 13th (17.1: +0.9)

16.5C to the 14th (17.8: +1.1)

16.6C to the 15th (17.6: +0.8]

16.6C to the 16th (16.6: +0.1)

16.4C to the 17th (14.0: -2.5)

 

The next 5 days look like averaging about 16.55C, so around 0.25C below the 81-10 average, with little change for 10 days

 

The forecast has us remaining a few 10ths below the 81-10 average throughout.

[summer blizzard]

I think Roger posted that today is the 1981-2010 thermal maximum of summer with an average CET of 16.8C.

Since we've not reached that and the forecast keeps us lightly below, a cool second half could produce a fairly cool CET value.

[cheese]

This is why you can't rely on the CET to portray an accurate picture for everywhere - regional discrepancies exist. It's been a nice start to the month in Leeds - a little cloudy, but temperatures are average, and set to go above average. No complaints at all from me.

 

Seems like the CET area has suffered worse weather than eastern areas of England which have been much warmer.