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November 2015 -- Your C.E.T. forecasts

Roger J Smith

By Roger J Smith
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted

It looks as though the mist, fog and low cloud have given CETs lower than first thought.

 

Yep

 

I rather suspect the high water mark was set on the 1st.

 

That's not to say that the next week won't be above average because it does very much look that way.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

The minimum today is 7.2C, while maxima looked like they were around the low 12s, so a drop to 10.1C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

 

10.4C to the 4th (11.3: +2.7)
10.9C to the 5th (12.9: +4.6)
11.5C to the 6th (14.9: +6.7) [Record high 13.4C]
11.7C to the 7th (12.4: +4.1) [Record high 13.4C]
11.7C to the 8th (12.1: +3.4)
11.9C to the 9th (12.9: +4.8] [Record high 12.5C]
12.1C to the 10th (14.6: +6.7) [Record high 13.4C]
11.9C to the 11th (9.6: +1.3)
11.6C to the 12th (8.4: +0.2)
 
Still the opportunity to set some records in the next week, and have a record breaking mild first 10 days, if the GFS is to be believed.
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cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

It looks as though the mist, fog and low cloud have given CETs lower than first thought.

Didn't think a small area of Wales having record warmth would have much impact on the CET zone..

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stewfox Accomplished

stewfox

Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
Posted (edited)

Didn't think a small area of Wales having record warmth would have much impact on the CET zone..

Can someone post a link re the actual area CET covers I'm struggling to find it.

Edited by stewfox
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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Can someone post a link re actual area CET covers I'm struggling to find it.

I would say this map on here represents broadly what all cet measurements cover.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=cet;sess=

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield just out the CET area running at 9.2C

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

9.9c to the 3rd

 

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited by Summer Sun
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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted

Didn't think a small area of Wales having record warmth would have much impact on the CET zone..

I was referring to BFTV's listing for 1st November.

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84243-november-2015-your-cet-forecasts/?p=3277003

11.5C based on that GFS run for 3rd but infact 9.9C provisionally.

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted

 

The minimum today is 7.2C, while maxima looked like they were around the low 12s, so a drop to 10.1C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

 

10.4C to the 4th (11.3: +2.7)
10.9C to the 5th (12.9: +4.6)
11.5C to the 6th (14.9: +6.7) [Record high 13.4C]
11.7C to the 7th (12.4: +4.1) [Record high 13.4C]
11.7C to the 8th (12.1: +3.4)
11.9C to the 9th (12.9: +4.8] [Record high 12.5C]
12.1C to the 10th (14.6: +6.7) [Record high 13.4C]
11.9C to the 11th (9.6: +1.3)
11.6C to the 12th (8.4: +0.2)
 
Still the opportunity to set some records in the next week, and have a record breaking mild first 10 days, if the GFS is to be believed.

 

I'd be surprised if the rolling total goes above 11C in the next few days, let alone 12C.

 

Yes the GFS is showing some mild nights and days but it never quite seems to come off.

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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Author
Posted

It looks credible to me because gradients will be increasing, and wind directions veering to a more reliable warm direction (SSW) during these warmest days ahead.

 

I notice the ECM today has almost totally dropped the colder turn mid-week in favour of yet another warm sector low following along and no real change out to day ten either.

 

So based on all that, I would expect the CET to gain a bit at least then only lose slightly to perhaps the 16th, will speculate that it peaks at 11.5 and is back to the high 9s by the 20th. It could still drop quite a bit after that of course, I'm hoping it doesn't but the GFS seems to have a predictable bias towards cold that is gradually downgraded, at least until cold actually gets going.

 

That cold pool was fading out for a while but now it's back, and that should set up mostly southwesterly flow for at least the first half of the winter, it may take time to create blocking with that tilt in the upstream flow.

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Goodbye Cold Weather could actually be onto the right sort of cet temp this month for a change.... Lol. Early days still yet though.

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March Blizzard Rising Star

March Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport
Posted

Nice to see that there's a good chance for a very mild November. Hopefully it won't be ruined by any cold rubbish later on in the month...

Scott, it's impossible to ruin the current weather - it's at Rock Bottom. Any changes down the line, whether they be mild or cold, would be an improvement.

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stewfox Accomplished

stewfox

Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
Posted

Nice to see that there's a good chance for a very mild November. Hopefully it won't be ruined by any cold rubbish later on in the month...

Given you will be fully aware of forum members and what 90% lean to. Did you post this to get a reaction ?

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

The minimum today is 9.7C, while maxima were in the mid 14s, so an increase to 10.6C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

 

11.2C to the 6th (14.4: +6.2) [Record High: 13.4C]
11.6C to the 7th (13.8: +5.5) [Record High: 13.4C]
11.7C to the 8th (12.7: +4.0) [Record High: 13.4C]
11.9C to the 9th (12.8: +4.7) [Record High: 12.5C]
12.0C to the 10th (13.5: +5.6) [Record High: 13.4C]
12.1C to the 11th (13.2: +4.9) [Record High: 13.0C]
11.9C to the 12th (9.8: +1.6)
11.8C to the 13th (10.7: +3.5)
11.6C to the 14th (8.8: +1.9)
 
An exceptionally mild 6 days now likely, with new daily record high averages possible from tomorrow through to the 11th.
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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Author
Posted

WARMEST FIRST HALF of NOVEMBER CET means (1772-2014)

__________________________________________________________

 

All years that averaged 9.5 or higher

 

(and how these months finished)

 

12.0 __ 1938 _____ >>  9.4 (4)

10.6 __ 1994 _____ >>10.1 (1)

10.5 __ 2011 _____ >>  9.6 (2)

10.5 __ 1978 _____ >>  8.5 (t13/t11)

10.4 __ 1818 _____ >>  9.5 (3)

10.0 __ 1817 _____ >>  9.1 (7/5)

10.0 __ 1899 _____ >>  8.5 (t13/t11)

09.9 __ 1852 _____ >>  7.9 (t29/t25)

09.9 __ 1982 _____ >>  8.0 (t26/t23)

09.9 __ 2002 _____ >>  8.5 (t13/t11)

09.8 __ 2005 _____ >>  6.2 (t157/t116)

09.7 __ 1881 _____ >>  8.9 (8/6)

09.6 __ 1847 _____ >>  7.9 (t29/t25)

09.6 __ 1939 _____ >>  8.6 (t9/t7)

09.5 __ 1977 _____ >>  6.6 (t130/t101)

 

Rank of the finishing CET is shown both in overall (1659-2014) and data set (1772-2014) rank. The top four have the same rank in the two sets.

 

The warmest finishing CET not to appear in this list would be 2009 (8.6, t9 with 1939) which had a first half of 8.5, The two cases which fell furthest were 2005 and 1977 which ended up in the middle of the pack.

 

 

 

 

 

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Relativistic Seasoned

Relativistic

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
Posted (edited)

 

The minimum today is 9.7C, while maxima were in the mid 14s, so an increase to 10.6C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

 

11.2C to the 6th (14.4: +6.2) [Record High: 13.4C]
11.6C to the 7th (13.8: +5.5) [Record High: 13.4C]
11.7C to the 8th (12.7: +4.0) [Record High: 13.4C]
11.9C to the 9th (12.8: +4.7) [Record High: 12.5C]
12.0C to the 10th (13.5: +5.6) [Record High: 13.4C]
12.1C to the 11th (13.2: +4.9) [Record High: 13.0C]
11.9C to the 12th (9.8: +1.6)
11.8C to the 13th (10.7: +3.5)
11.6C to the 14th (8.8: +1.9)
 
An exceptionally mild 6 days now likely, with new daily record high averages possible from tomorrow through to the 11th.

 

 

This is killing me now. Every time I check to see what is going on there is no light at the end of the tunnel, just a constantly disgusting outlook. I don't think I have ever been so desperate for a change in the weather in my life.

Edited by Relativistic Sting Jet
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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield at 10.1C today I'm beginning to suspect that this November will offset September and leave us to an average Autumn over all.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

10.6c to the 5th

 

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

 

The minimum today is 12.7C, so all we need to beat the daily record average is for maxima to be at least 14.2C, so that's likely to be smashed. A maximum of 17.3C is needed for the latest date to record a mean CET of 15C or higher.

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

What were the CET's of the second halves of 05 and 10.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

What were the CET's of the second halves of 05 and 10.

 

2.6C and 2.2C respectively.

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