November 2015 -- Your C.E.T. forecasts

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 9.2C little change tomorrow depending how mild it gets overnight maybe 9.1C

[Summer Sun]

10.0c to the 23rd

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
 

2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 1.1C, while maxima look like reaching the low 9s, so a drop to 9.8C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

9.7C to the 25th (7.1: +0.8]

9.7C to the 26th (8.2: +2.0)

9.6C to the 27th (8.9: +2.9)

9.5C to the 28th (5.3: -0.5)

9.4C to the 29th (6.7: +1.2)

9.3C to the 30th (8.0: +2.2)

 

Narrowing the finishing range once more, 9.0C to 9.5C before, and 8.6C to 9.5C after corrections.

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 9C so a bigger drop than I expected. Going to guess a final figure of 8.3C to 8.5C for us and give us an above average autumn temperature wise.

[Roger J Smith]

Just in case you're looking for the December 2015 thread to place a forecast, it was opened and then moved to the new Winter discussion forum here:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84464-cet-forecasts-for-december-2015-start-of-2015-16-competition-year/page-1

 

 

[stewfox]

Just in case you're looking for the December 2015 thread to place a forecast, it was opened and then moved to the new Winter discussion forum here:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84464-cet-forecasts-for-december-2015-start-of-2015-16-competition-year/page-1

Not sure why a yearly comp should be put in winter discussion. I'll book mark fav for CET comp to appear in Spring Summer and Autumn as well.

[Summer Sun]

9.8c to the 24th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
 

2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 6.7C, while maxima should be in the low to mid 9s, so a drop to 9.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

9.7C to the 26th (8.0: +1.8]

9.7C to the 27th (9.2: +3.2)

9.5C to the 28th (5.2: -0.6)

9.4C to the 29th (7.2: +1.7)

9.4C to the 30th (8.9: +3.1)

 

Finishing range now 9.1C to 9.5C before corrections, 8.7C to 9.5C after corrections. Almost certain to make the top 10 warmest Novembers (8.7C or higher), and a small chance of the top 5 (9.3C or higher).

[Timmytour]

Minimum today of 6.7C, while maxima should be in the low to mid 9s, so a drop to 9.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

9.7C to the 26th (8.0: +1.8]

9.7C to the 27th (9.2: +3.2)

9.5C to the 28th (5.2: -0.6)

9.4C to the 29th (7.2: +1.7)

9.4C to the 30th (8.9: +3.1)

 

Finishing range now 9.1C to 9.5C before corrections, 8.7C to 9.5C after corrections. Almost certain to make the top 10 warmest Novembers (8.7C or higher), and a small chance of the top 5 (9.3C or higher).

For a long time November looked like coming in over 9.6C. Seems unlikely now and assuming it doesn't, it will bring to an end a run which has only occured once before in recorded history, 349 years ago! A run where the temp of each month varies by at least IC from the corresponding month of the year before. So far 2015 has seen 9 months colder and just one month, August, which has been warmer.

The previous year is 1666 and the distinction for then is somewhat dubious as all CETs in those days were rounded to the nearest whole degree. Coincidentally the run that year also came to an end in November, as seems now likely it will do for this year

Edited November 25, 2015 by Timmytour

[Summer Sun]

9.8c to the 25th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
 

2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Min today of 7.4C, while maxima look like reaching the low 11s, so we should be on 9.7C or 9.8C tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

9.7C to the 27th (9.7: +3.7)

9.6C to the 28th (5.7: -0.1)

9.5C to the 29th (8.0: +2.5)

9.6C to the 30th (10.8: +5.0)

 

The latest GFS gone for a milder theme to the months end, and has a front straddling the CET zone on the last day, so slight changes to that forecast could see the daily CET turn out much lower (perhaps slightly higher too). As it stands, I think 9.3C to 9.7C is now the likely range before corrections, and 8.9C to 9.7C after corrections.

Edited November 26, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield on 8.9C no real change over the weekend mild offset by cool.

[Summer Sun]

9.8c to the 26th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
 

2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 8.3C, while maxima look like being in the mid to high 11s, so remaining on 9.8C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

9.6C to the 28th (6.2: +0.4)

9.6C to the 29th (7.8: +2.3)

9.6C to the 30th (11.0: +5.2)

 

Finishing off the month on a very mild note. A range of 9.5C to 9.7C is now likely before corrections, and 9.1C to 9.7C after corrections. So a top 10 warmest November now all but guaranteed, with anything up to the 2nd warmest possible.

[Summer Sun]

9.8c to the 27th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
 

2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

This month is making a plucky effort to stay ahead of 2011 for second all-time (9.6) and fast closing 1818 currently third at 9.5 ... no chance of catching 1994 (10.1) unless there is some unforeseen upward adjustment ... the tracking for this has been edited into my earlier post about a page back in this thread. Earlier rival 1978 took a nasty blow and is out cold. Would say that after today's value of about 6 this month will be down to 9.7, staying there on 29th (but either of those days could be 9.6 after rounding, will be close to 9.65 anyway) and even on 30th it will stay 9.7 despite the possibility of a 10-11 daily value. This late in the month it takes a departure from the standing mean of about 3 degrees to make a difference of 0.1 in the running mean. Then I think it will be adjusted for final values down 0.1 or 0.2. So 9.4 to 9.6 seems most likely to me (possibly a bias involved there).

 

I have the theory that the most frequent causes of these adjustments can be found in the fact that the final figures are probably calendar day whereas the provisionals have that overlapping time system where the minimum is already declared by mid-day. It's more likely for a minimum to drop in the evening than for a maximum to rise or get cut off in some way, so most of the adjustments are down. We've only had two or three days with late passing cold fronts so I would imagine the adjustment will be 0.1 or 0.2, look for the 27th to get adjusted down as that colder air came in just before midnight.

 

 

[damianslaw]

Mmm move over November please, Nov 2015 not a month I'd be happy seeing again.

[Relativistic]

Mmm move over November please, Nov 2015 not a month I'd be happy seeing again.

 

Indeed, a dreadful month. I'd love to see a truly, consistently cold November in my lifetime, but months like these only help to cast doubt on those hopes.

 

Having said that, this time five years ago the country was shivering...

[Summer Sun]

9.6c to the 28th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
 

2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Min today of 4.9C, while maxima look like being in the high 11s, so remaining on 9.6C on tomorrows update.

 

The 06z GFS has the minimum tomorrow at about 4.8C, with maxima in the mid 13s, so we'll probably remain on 9.6C at the end, but just in case something unexpected happens, I'll say 9.5 to 9.7C before corrections and 9.1C to 9.7C after corrections. This means from 2nd to 6th warmest on record is likely. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 8.7C should eb the same for tomorrow allowing for rounding up.

[Roger J Smith]

Looking for the December thread?

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84464-cet-forecasts-for-december-2015-start-of-2015-16-competition-year/page-5

 

It's in the winter discussion forum.

[Roger J Smith]

This can be moved over to the December thread once the forecasts are all in, but thought you all might like to see these stats:

 

WARMEST FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER CET 1772-2014

_____________________________________________________

 

Rank __ Year ________ CET 1-15 __ 1-16 (rank) ________ end of month (rank)

 

01 ____ 1898 _________ 9.15 _____ 9.03 (1) _________ 7.3 __ 9 (t)

02 ____ 2000 _________ 9.08 _____ 8.68 (4) _________ 5.8 _ 53 (t)

03 ____ 1934 _________ 9.05 _____ 9.02 (2) _________ 8.1 __ 1 (t with 1974 which was 7.66 after 16d)

04 ____ 1918 _________ 9.05 _____ 8.96 (3) _________ 6.9 _ 14 (t)

05 ____ 1979 _________ 8.69 _____ 8.56 (5) _________ 5.8 _ 53 (t)

06t____ 1831 _________ 8.47 _____ 8.35 (7t) _________5.8 _ 53 (t)

06t____ 1948 _________ 8.47 _____ 8.35 (7t) _________5.7 _ 64 (t)

08 ____ 1956 _________ 8.41 _____ 8.41 (6) _________ 5.7 _ 64 (t)

09 ____ 2006 _________ 8.40 _____ 8.23 (11) ________ 6.5 _ 25 (t)

10 ____ 1900 _________ 8.38 _____ 8.33 (9) _________ 7.2 _ 11 (t)

11 ____ 1868 _________ 8.27 _____ 8.25 (10) ________ 7.2 _ 11 (t)

12 ____ 1953 _________ 8.25 _____ 8.11 (13) ________ 6.9 _ 14 (t)

13 ____ 1985 _________ 8.11 _____ 8.21 (12) ________ 6.3 _ 33 (t)

14 ____ 1852 _________ 8.00 _____ 7.86 (14) ________ 7.7 __ 3

15 ____ 1994 _________ 7.97 _____ 7.75 (16) _________6.4 _ 29 (t)

xx ____ 1857 _________ 7.70 _____ 7.81 (15) _________7.3 __ 9 (t)

 

__________________________

 

The list of top 20 Decembers contains just as many examples of a rise from some lower value than these top 16 first half months.

 

Some are from the period before 1772 so they can't be ranked (4th, 1733 at 7.6, and tied 5th, 1710 at 7.5. The other year tied 5th was 1988 which stood at 6.7 after 16d. Two years tied at 7th (1828, 1848 at 7.4) were also outside the list above at 7.4 and 7.7 after 16d but those were close to being top twenty.

[Summer Sun]

9.6c to the 29th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
 

2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

With the minimum today down as 5.2C, we'll finish the month on 9.6C before corrections, provided the max today is between 10.3C and 16.2C, so seems pretty certain.

So, after corrections, 9.1 to 9.6C then.