November 2015 -- Your C.E.T. forecasts

[summer blizzard]

Always strange at this time of year. Instinctively you look at the temperature and 15C is not that warm but then you remember that the November average is much lower.

[Timmytour]

Good spot. To put it in to context, how many 8C+ Novembers has there been?

Just noticed your link. From what I can tell, there's been 28 Novembers at 8C or above. 2015 is almost certain to be 8C+, so that makes 18 out of 28 of them bunched up within 2/3 years.

Fogive the duplicate posting, having posted this already in the Historical Weather forum, but I thought there might also be some context on this thread for it...

The stage looks set for this month to be only the eighth November on record to have reached a Mean CET of 9C or greater. Assuming that turns out to be the case, a safe assumption I'd think, it will mean there have been two such occasions for each century since 1700 and gives the 21st century a long run at becoming the first century to reach three Novembers over 9C

That said, the 19th Century was only three years behind and failed! Its Novembers fell in 1817 and 1818....the only ever time there have been consecutive Novembers above 9C. 1817 was remarkable. It is, to date, the 7th warmest November on record, yet in the 6 months of the year that preceded it, four are in the top 20 coldest on record for the corresponding month! And the autumn was colder than average.

Edited November 16, 2015 by Timmytour

[DAVID SNOW]

Fogive the duplicate posting, having posted this already in the Historical Weather forum, but I thought there might also be some context on this thread for it...

The stage looks set for this month to be only the eighth November on record to have reached a Mean CET of 9C or greater. Assuming that turns out to be the case, a safe assumption I'd think, it will mean there have been two such occasions for each century since 1700 and gives the 21st century a long run at becoming the first century to reach three Novembers over 9C

That said, the 19th Century was only three years behind and failed! Its Novembers fell in 1817 and 1818....the only ever time there have been consecutive Novembers above 9C. 1817 was remarkable. It is, to date, the 7th warmest November on record, yet in the 6 months of the year that preceded it, four are in the top 20 coldest on record for the corresponding month! And the autumn was colder than average.

 

 

Just goes to prove that 'our' weather has always been topsy turvy.

[Summer Sun]

11.4c to the 16th

 

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 

3.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 6.8C, while maxima look like reaching the low to mid 15s, so remaining on 11.4C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

11.4C to the 18th (11.1: +4.4)

11.3C to the 19th (10.3: +3.9)

11.1C to the 20th (8.1: +2.0)

10.7C to the 21st (1.7: -4.1)

10.3C to the 22nd (3.0: -2.8]

10.1C to the 23rd (4.3: -1.5)

10.0C to the 24th (8.6: +2.7)

9.9C to the 25th (6.1: -0.2)

9.7C to the 26th (5.9: -0.3)

 

The cold spell looking very likely now, with the chance of the coldest daily CET values since early February.

 

At this stage, the likely finishing range before corrections will probably be between 8.8 and 10.4C, and 8.4 and 10.4C after corrections. Still within range of a new record, but no very likely now. Best guesses probably around 9C.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 10.6C

[March Blizzard]

It's kind of shame that this lovely mild November is going to be ruined by rubbish cold this weekend, though it was a bit foolish of me to expect it to stay that mild, to be honest.

Yeah, it's like expecting 30C+ maxima every day of July. Anyway, I for one can't wait for the "lovely" rain and cloud to do one and the "rubbish" sunshine to accompany the cold.

[Summer Sun]

11.4c to the 17th

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average
 

3.4c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited November 18, 2015 by Summer Sun

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 8.2C, while maxima look like reaching the high 13s, so a drop to 11.3C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

11.3C to the 19th (9.9: +3.5)

11.1C to the 20th (7.4: +1.3)

10.6C to the 21st (1.6: -4.2)

10.2C to the 22nd (1.5: -4.3)

9.9C to the 23rd (2.1: -3.7)

9.6C to the 24th (3.2: -2.7)

9.4C to the 25th (5.5: -0.8]

9.3C to the 26th (6.6: +0.4)

9.3C to the 27th (8.0: +2.0)

 

The chances of a record warm month now appear increasingly slim. The coming weekend could actually produce some of the largest -ve anomalies since the end of July.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 10.5C

[Summer Sun]

11.3c to the 18th

4.1c above the 61 to 90 average
 

3.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

11.3c to the 19th

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average
 

3.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 5.4C, while maxima look like climbing to just the low to mid 8s, so a drop to 11.0C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

10.6C to the 21st (2.3: -3.6)

10.2C to the 22nd (0.8: -5.0)

9.9C to the 23rd (2.9: -2.9)

9.7C to the 24th (5.0: -0.9)

9.6C to the 25th (7.6: +1.3)

9.5C to the 26th (8.7: +2.5)

9.4C to the 27th (6.7: +0.7)

9.3C to the 28th (6.6: +0.8]

9.3C to the 29th (8.7: +3.2)

 

A cold few days coming up, before the GFS returns us to milder conditions, though nothing like earlier in the month. At this stage, a finish in the region of 8.8C to 10.0C before corrections, and 8.4C to 10.0C after corrections looks likely.

 

[Summer Sun]

11.0c to the 20th

3.9c above the 61 to 90 average
 

3.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 1.4C, while maxima look like reaching the high 3s, so a drop to 10.6C or 10.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

10.2C to the 22nd (2.0: -3.8]

10.0C to the 23rd (3.4: -2.4)

9.8C to the 24th (6.1: +0.2)

9.7C to the 25th (8.1: +1.8]

9.7C to the 26th (7.9: +1.7)

9.6C to the 27th (9.5: +3.5)

9.5C to the 28th (5.5: -0.3)

9.3C to the 29th (4.5: -1.0)

9.3C to the 30th (7.3: +1.5)

 

Another 2 cold days after today before a return to milder, more variable, conditions. At this stage, a finish of around 9C after corrections looks best, but anything from 8.4C to 10.0C is still possible.

[Roger J Smith]

The December thread is open, but it was moved over to the new Winter Discussion forum. A link still exists on the menu of this forum, but that link will drop slowly out of sight as new topics are posted.

 

I think it should probably stay here to avoid confusion and the inevitable duplicate thread from somebody thinking there is no December thread.

 

However, I will post links to it every second day here until it migrates back over here perhaps.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 10C.

9.6C or lower tomorrow depending on the overnight temps.

 

Minimum today is 1.4C, while maxima look like reaching the high 3s, so a drop to 10.6C or 10.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

10.2C to the 22nd (2.0: -3.8]

10.0C to the 23rd (3.4: -2.4)

9.8C to the 24th (6.1: +0.2)

9.7C to the 25th (8.1: +1.8]

9.7C to the 26th (7.9: +1.7)

9.6C to the 27th (9.5: +3.5)

9.5C to the 28th (5.5: -0.3)

9.3C to the 29th (4.5: -1.0)

9.3C to the 30th (7.3: +1.5)

 

Another 2 cold days after today before a return to milder, more variable, conditions. At this stage, a finish of around 9C after corrections looks best, but anything from 8.4C to 10.0C is still possible.

 

Makes my 8.5c guess look a bit better.

[Roger J Smith]

Realizing that the provisional values for this year's CET may change, I will keep track of how we slide into whatever position of the top ten (perhaps) 2015 achieves, as follows

 

(edit Dec 1st, table is now edited to show ranking to 30th, second decimals are shown today and the 2015 value is recalculated from posted final data. I have added all years ahead of 1947 that were not in the countdown because they had never been in the top 12 at any previous point. Years prior to 1772 are also moved into the table in their final order but to a precision of one decimal place as reported in the data. Those added years do not show a countdown, just the 29th if available and the finishing rank. Years since 1772 are shown with final values to 2 decimals to break ties but the ranks in brackets are official ranks based on one decimal. Those ranks now include 2015.

 

The last five days of the month in 1818 averaged 11.3 C and set two of the five daily records. This is the only member of the top twenty below that made a significant upward move (+0.4) from 25th to end of month. The average drop from 25th to end of month is 0.4 deg in these mild Novembers.

 

 

RANK,YEAR ______________ CET 20-29 ________________________ MONTH FINISHED AT

 

 1 ... 1994 _______ 10.7,10.6,10.5,10.5,10.6,10.5,10.6,10.6,10.4,10.24 ____ 10.08 (1)

 2 ... 2011 _________10.1,10.0, 10.0, 9.8, 9.8, 9,8, 9.8, 9.8, 9.7, 9.64 ______ 9.57 (2)

 t3 ... 2015 ________ 11.1,10.7,10.3, 10.0, 9.8, 9.7, 9.7, 9.7, 9.6, 9.51 _____ 9.50 (t3)

 t3 ... 1818 _________ 9.7, 9.5 , 9.2 , 9.3 , 9.3, 9.1, 9.2, 9.3, 9.3, 9.44 _______9.50 (t3)

 5 ... 1938 ________ 11.2,10.8,10.7,10.5,10.3,10.2,10.0,9.9, 9.7, 9.52 ______9.39 (5)

 

 6 ... 1743 __________________ no daily data ___________________________ 9.3 (6)

 7 ... 1730 __________________ no daily data ___________________________ 9.2 (7)

 8 ... 1817 __________ 9.8, 9.7, 9.5, 9.4 , 9.3, 9.1, 9.0 , 9.0, 9.0, 9.03 ______ 9.11 (

 9 ... 1881 __________ 9.4, 9.4, 9.4, 9.3 , 9.3, 9.2, 9.2 , 9.1, 9.1, 8.99 ______ 8.89 (.9.)

10... 1939 __________ 9.3, 9.1, 8.9. 8.8 , 8.6, 8.6, 8.5, 8.5 , 8.5, 8.57 ______ 8.68 (t10)

 

11... 2009 __________ 9.2, 9.2, 9.2, 9.2 , 9.3, 9.2, 9.2 , 9.1, 8.9, 8.78 ______ 8.66 (t10)

12... 1821 __________ 8.9, 8.8, 8.8, 8.8 , 8.7, 8.7, 8.8, 8.6 , 8.6, 8.63 ______ 8.61 (t12)

13... 2014 __________ 9.1, 9.1, 9.1, 9.1 , 8.9, 8.7, 8.5, 8.5 , 8.5, 8.58 ______ 8.58 (t12)

14... 2002 __________ 9.0, 9.0, 8.9, 8.8 , 8.7, 8.6, 8.5. 8.6 , 8.6, 8.52 ______ 8.51 (t14)

15... 1953 ______________________ no countdown ___________ 8.52 ______ 8.51 (t14)

 

16... 1899 __________ 8.5, 8.4, 8.4, 8.4 , 8.5, 8.5, 8,6, 8.6 , 8.6, 8.57 ______ 8.50 (t14)

17... 1951 __________ 9.2, 9.2, 9.1, 9.1 , 9.1, 9.0, 8.8 , 8.7, 8.6, 8.53 ______ 8.50 (t14)

18... 1978 ________ 10.4,10.3,10.4,10.4,10.4,10.1,9.9, 9.5, 9.1, 8.80 ______ 8.48 (t14)

19... 1997 ______________________ no countdown ___________ 8.43 ______ 8.43 (t19)

20... 1913 _____________________ no countdown ____________ 8.32 ______ 8.40 (t19)

 

21... 1822 __________ 8.7, 8.7, 8.6, 8.6 , 8.6, 8.6, 8.6, 8.6 , 8.5, 8.36 ______ 8.20 (t21)

22... 1963 __________ 8.8, 8.6, 8.6, 8.6 , 8.7, 8.7, 8.7, 8.6 , 8.4, 8.33 ______ 8.20 (t21)

23... 2003 __________ 9.5, 9.4, 9.1, 8.9 , 8.7, 8.6, 8.5, 8.4 , 8.2, 8.21 ______ 8.15 (t23)

24... 1729 _____________________ no daily data ________________________ 8.1 (t23)

25... 1946 _____________________ no countdown _____________8.11 ______ 8.09 (t23)

 

26... 2006 _____________________ no countdown _____________8.04 ______ 8.08 (t23)

27t.. 1661 _____________________ no daily data ________________________ 8.0 (t27)

27t.. 1710 _____________________ no daily data ________________________ 8.0 (t27)

29... 1982 __________ 9.4, 9.4, 9.3, 9.3 , 9.1, 9.0, 8.8, 8.6 , 8.4, 8.21 ______ 7.96 (t27)

30... 1984 _____________________ no countdown _____________7.89 ______ 7.95 (t27)

 

31... 1852 __________ 9.4, 9.3, 9.2, 8.9 , 8.8, 8.6, 8.6, 8.5 , 8.3, 8.13 ______ 7.91 (t31)

32... 1847 _____________________ no countdown _____________7.78 ______ 7.91 (t31)

33... 1894 _____________________ no countdown _____________8.04 ______ 7.90 (t31)

34... 1999 _____________________ no countdown _____________7.90 ______ 7.88 (t31)

35... 1981 _____________________ no countdown _____________7.84 ______ 7.83 (t35)

 

36... 1931 _____________________ no countdown _____________7.93 ______ 7.81 (t35)

37t.. 1722 _____________________ no daily data ________________________ 7.8 (t35)

37t.. 1731 _____________________ no daily data ________________________ 7.8 (t35)

37t.. 1741 _____________________ no daily data ________________________ 7.8 (t35)

37t.. 1806 _____________________ no countdown _____________7.72 ______ 7.80 (t35)

37t.. 1917 _____________________ no countdown _____________7.75 ______ 7.80 (t35)

37t.. 1970 _____________________ no countdown _____________7.80 ______ 7.80 (t35)

 

43... 1986 _____________________ no countdown _____________7.87 ______ 7.78 (t35)

44... 1995 _____________________ no countdown _____________7.79 ______ 7.73 (t44)

45... 2004 _____________________ no countdown _____________7.86 ______ 7.72 (t44)

 

46... 1811 _____________________ no countdown _____________7.69 ______ 7.71 (t44)

47... 1888 _____________________ no countdown _____________7.76 ______ 7.70 (t44)

48... 1897 _____________________ no countdown _____________7.68 ______ 7.60 (t48)

49... 1928 _____________________ no countdown _____________7.58 ______ 7.62 (t48)

50... 1983 _____________________ no countdown _____________7.60 ______ 7.52 (t50)

 

51... 1895 _____________________ no countdown _______________________ 7.51 (t50)

52... 1709 _____________________ no daily data ________________________ 7.50 (t50)

53... 1723 _____________________ no daily data ________________________ 7.50 (t50)

54... 2001 _____________________ no countdown _______________________ 7.48 (t50)

55... 1992 _____________________ no countdown _______________________ 7.41 (t55)

 

56t.. 1828 _____________________ no countdown _______________________ 7.40 (t55)

56t.. 1850 _____________________ no countdown _______________________ 7.40 (t55)

56t.. 1964 _____________________ no countdown _____________7.67 ______ 7.40 (t55)

56t.. 1908 _____________________ no countdown _______________________ 7.40 (t55)

60... 1900 _____________________ no countdown _______________________ 7.31 (t60)

 

61t.. 1906 _____________________ no countdown _______________________ 7.30 (t60)

61t.. 1960 _____________________ no countdown _______________________ 7.30 (t60)

61t.. 1839 _____________________ no countdown _______________________ 7.30 (t60)

64... 1948 _____________________ no countdown _______________________ 7.29 (t60)

65... 2007 _____________________ no countdown _______________________ 7.28 (t60)

 

66... 1863 _____________________ no countdown _______________________ 7.27 (t60)

67... 1824 _____________________ no countdown _______________________ 7.21 (t60)

68t.. 1703 _____________________ no daily data ________________________ 7.20 (t67)

68t.. 1728 _____________________ no daily data ________________________ 7.20 (t67)

68t.. 1766 _____________________ no daily data ________________________ 7.20 (t67)

68t.. 1772 _____________________ no countdown _______________________ 7.20 (t67)

68t.. 1945 _____________________ no countdown _______________________ 7.20 (t67)

68t.. 1898 _____________________ no countdown _______________________ 7.20 (t67)

 

74... 1947 __________ 8.0, 8.3, 8.6, 8.8 , 8.7, 8.5, 8.3, 8.0 , 7.7, 7.46 ______ 7.19 (t67)

75... 1857 _____________________ no countdown _______________________ 7.18 (t67)

Edited December 1, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 9.6C Probably 9.3 tomorrow cloud cover means the temps will probably not fall so far tonight.

[Summer Sun]

10.7c to the 21st

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average
 

3.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is -0.4C, while maxima look like reaching the high 5s, so a drop to 10.3C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

10.0C to the 23rd (3.5: -2.3)

9.8C to the 24th (4.6: -1.3)

9.7C to the 25th (7.3: +1.0)

9.6C to the 26th (7.4: +1.2)

9.6C to the 27th (8.7: +2.7)

9.4C to the 28th (5.3: -0.5)

9.4C to the 29th (8.3: +2.8]

9.4C to the 30th (10.0: +4.2)

 

We just missed out on recording the first <3C CET day yesterday. We might manage it today, provided the maximum doesn't go far above 6.0C. We can probably narrow the finishing range now to about 9.0C to 9.8C before corrections, and 8.6C to 9.8C after.

 

[Costa Del Fal]

Pretty pleased with my 8.8c estimate so far. Hopefully it doesnt go wrong from here but have been pretty close for the last few months now. Just need a bit of a downward correction to get even closer!

[damianslaw]

A notably mild November on the cards then, but not likely to be record breaking. Somewhere around the 9 degree mark looks a good bet..

 

Interesting to note the 23rd Nov once again is likely to produce a notably cold CET value, just like last year and 2013 I believe as well. Cold spells around the 20-23 Nov have often occurred in otherwise mild Novembers.

[Summer Sun]

10.3c to the 22nd

3.3c above the 61 to 90 average
 

2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yesterday's CET was 2.9C, provisionally the first sub 3C CET since Feb 7th.

 

The minimum today is -1.5C (provisional lowest since Feb 7th, -1.8C) while maxima look like reaching about 8C, so a drop to 10.0C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

9.8C to the 24th (4.8: -1.1)

9.7C to the 25th (6.7: +0.4)

9.6C to the 26th (6.8: +0.6)

9.5C to the 27th (8.4: +2.4)

9.3C to the 28th (4.6: -1.2)

9.2C to the 29th (6.4: +0.9)

9.2C to the 30th (8.8: +3.0)

 

A milder than average end to the month, but still cool enough to bring the average CET downward. Current likely finishing range is now about 8.9C to 9.5C before corrections, 8.5C to 9.5C after corrections. Best bets are still around 9.0C.