November 2015 -- Your C.E.T. forecasts

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield closes on 8.7C

[Timmytour]

Predicting an unseasonably warm and exceptionally wet November coming in at 9.2C

Blimey....I could end up being quite close for once!

[stewfox]

Blimey....I could end up being quite close for once!

 

Whats your winter forecast ?

[Don]

Blimey....I could end up being quite close for once!

You won't be far off, that's for sure!

[Timmytour]

Whats your winter forecast ?

I went for a mild December as well, with a foggy Christmas....with some real cold coming in around 14-16 Jan and mostly sticking around till the latter stages of Feb.

But i think I might have peaked too soon

[Timmytour]

When the final figures are announced, this November just gone will undoubtedly finish in the warmest 25 Novembers on record.

But apart from 2010 which did not have a single month that featured in the top 25 warmest for the month concerned, it's been the longest wait for such a month since 1988 when the December became the first month to make it inside the top 50 for that year.

Perhaps of concern....there then followed the third warmest winter on record!!

[Relativistic]

Wow, a very mild month in the end, with the final figure at 9.5C, making it the joint 3rd (with 1818) mildest November on the CET series. Almost no downward correction at all.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

 

1994 still sitting firmly on top though at 10.1C, a full 0.5C above 2nd place (2011).

Edited December 1, 2015 by Relativistic Sting Jet

[feb1991blizzard]

I really thought I was going to get one bang on as well - 0.2 out.

[J10]

23 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I really thought I was going to get one bang on as well - 0.2 out.

However only 0.2c out and second place. 1 person got it spot on this month, our very own Roger J Smith.

While Timmytour and AtlanticFlamethrower were both in joint 3rd, 0.2c out. Very noticeable this month the later the entry the better the score with a negative correlation of -0.48, and the last 2 quartile entries getting over 60pts on average position points.

This indicates that the model trend for a very warm start to November was spot on, and late entrants benefiting from this. One final thing this evening, 9 players upped their estimates as the month went on to match the models, in each case, this was an inspired decision.

Player Final Guess First Guess

stewfox 8.5 8.2
Stationary Front 8.9 7.5
Costa Del Fal 8.8 7.7
Ed Stone 8.3 6.9
BornFromTheVoid 8.0 6.7
pegg24 8.1 6.6
Thunderbolt_ 8.5 6.6
Dancerwithwings 7.5 6.5
Daniel* 6.6 4.6

Full Scores will be updated tomorrow evening.

Edited December 2, 2015 by J10

[feb1991blizzard]

^

 

Yes, I never see the point in putting an entry in on 20th of previous month, you don't get extra points for doing that do you? Obviously its not worth doing a late entry because of penalties.

The problem is, I don't enter in thee summer, I assumed you just lost your chance of scoring that month but realise after your recent posts on the Rules  that you need to enter every month, thus I wish I would have saved my scoring month for Dec, the start of a new yearly competition.

Edited December 1, 2015 by feb1991blizzard

[Roger J Smith]

No complaints with that adjustment, and basically it only affected the brief cold spell around 22nd to 24th otherwise was almost a straight transfer from provisional to final. I found that out when I compared the provisional numbers in my countdown to the adjusted values, they dropped 0.1 around the 22nd and then stayed 0.1 lower to the end.

With the values confirmed, the month set three new daily records on 6th, 7th and 11th, missing by 0.1 on the 10th. First half averaged 11.4 and second half 7.6 C. It never quite overtook 1938 until that month fell behind eventual first place 1994 around the 22nd (see my previous post about a page back for the day by day details from 20th to end of the month for the leading months). Then 2011 edged ahead near the end, 1818 caught up on the last day as tied 3rd place. If we can't have cold then we might as well have record warmth I suppose.

The cold will come sooner or later, if not we can send an expedition to find it.

Meanwhile, 1772 lost two more of its daily records to this past two years, having surrendered 31 Oct last year now it loses 6 and 7 Nov this year. And 2005 lost its record for 11 Nov to this year, which is a shame because that underscored the dramatic collapse of temperatures in Nov 2005 afterwards. Another very mild early to mid November that lost a considerable amount of its CET was 1978. That would be a nice analogue to follow I suppose. Might happen too if not exactly on same schedule. Note that 1994 went on to set daily warmth records in December, but 1818 went on to produce a three-day freeze before Christmas. So from an analogue point of view, while continued warmth is somewhat favoured, it is certainly not locked in.

[Summer Sun]

Hadley confirmed at 2.9c above the 61 to 90 average for November

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's the November CET before an after corrections

 

A closer look at the corrections themselves

 

And the daily CET compared to historical averages and extremes

 

November 2015 was the joint 3rd warmest on record with 1818.

The warmest day occurred on the 6th with a daily CET of 14.3C. This was the 6th warmest November day on record, and the warmest since Nov 3rd 1996 (15.0C).

[J10]

Scores are now ready for update

Monthly

As previously mentioned this was Roger J smith, getting it spot on. Feb1991blizzard was 2nd 0.2c out, with Timmytour and AtlanticFlamethrower both 0.3c

Seasonal

Gael_Force kept the lead from last month, with Roger J Smith up to 2nd, and Stationary Front 3rd.

Overall

The overall winner was BornFromTheVoid

with Weather26 in 2nd

and DAVID SNOW 3rd.

Thanks to all who competed during the past year.

Nov 2015 CET.xlsx

Nov 2015 CET.pdf

The figures are shown here as normal, note that the Excel file is now smaller and is in the newer Excel 2007 format.

Any problems with the scores please let me know.

 

Edited December 2, 2015 by J10
to improve my spelling

[summer blizzard]

8th for the year, very happy.

[Summer Sun]

46th overall

Not bad considering some of my guesses were well out

 

[Roger J Smith]

46 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

46th overall

Not bad considering some of my guesses were well out

 

Your daily updates are a very positive contribution, I'm the person who always thanks them. And it's nice to see frequent contributor BFTV with the top spot after all was said and done. Very consistent forecasting from the top finishers. I had quite a wild ride, will be trying to minimize the bad ones this coming year (two monthly wins as well as two complete duds, not a great formula for success in this contest). We all thank J10 for his scoring and I'm happy to help with the easy details like opening the doors and sweeping the hallways.

[Gael_Force]

Thanks to J10 for running the competition and to Roger for the stats.  Congrats to BFTV on his overall win.

I was having a terrible year but at least redeemed myself for a season.

 

[Costa Del Fal]

Extremely happy with 10th, especially as it's the first year I've really taken part and I missed 1 month too.  thanks to all those who keep this going. Most appreciated. I always look forward to the new scores each month. Great to see how much changes over time! Like everything else I suppose!

[Daniel*]

Lovely I stick out like a sore thumb all for the wrong reasons! 

Terrific compilation of all that mass of data hats off to yaa.

I wish to do better in 2016...

[BornFromTheVoid]

Cool, I actually won something!

Cheers to J10 and RJS for their work.

[stewfox]

On 12/2/2015, 8:20:41, J10 said:

Scores are now ready for update

Any problems with the scores please let me know.

 

 

Where are the seasonal/final  figures ?

[J10]

46 minutes ago, stewfox said:

 

Where are the seasonal/final  figures ?

Both sets of figures are on the Excel file and the PDF format.

[sundog]

10 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Cool, I actually won something!

Cheers to J10 and RJS for their work.

well done Bftv.

[March Blizzard]

Congratulations, BFTV. 

18th place for me, not acceptable for a former champ.